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Holyrood elections May 2021

Mr W has just told me that he tore down the Tory posters off the A boards outside two or three polling stations on his way past this afternoon (as is his usual wont on election days). A guy was watching him do it at one of them and Mr W jovially said to him on his way past (imagine a Scottish accent here) 'fucking Tory cunts eh, chuck 'em in the bin!' 😆 🤣
 
Any guesses on what increased turnout could indicate or is that impossible to know/different in different areas?
 
Any guesses on what increased turnout could indicate or is that impossible to know/different in different areas?
Well, received wisdom is that people don’t vote when they think it’s a forgone conclusion. So a high turnout would usually mean they don’t think so.

But that’s not the case here. So it could be the constitutional question factor. The indyref was a high turnout. But it’s anyone’s guess whether this means that Unionists have turned out disproportionally or that pro independence voters have. Or maybe it’s just up because people are bored and it’s not a disproportionate turnout at all.

TL;DR - No. No idea.
 
Any guesses on what increased turnout could indicate or is that impossible to know/different in different areas?
No idea really. I think it means strong opinions, but whose strong opinions is anyone's guess. It could be a bit of Covid lockdown boredom. But the weather was horrendous today so I think not. I mean I had to stand in the hail for 15 minutes queuing and it didn't seem to be putting anyone else off either. I was saying to my daughter (first time voter today) that the only elections I can remember having to queue like this for are the independence referendum in 2014 and the devolution referendum in 1997.
 
Orkney remains Fib Dem.

Samuel Bown - Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party - 699
Coilla Drake - Scottish Labour Party - 290
Robert Fraser Leslie - Scottish National Party (SNP) - 3369
Liam Scott McArthur - Scottish Liberal Democrats – 7238

There was a high turnout for the Orkney poll, with 65.5% of the local electorate voting in the election.
 
First marginal battleground seat is in. SNP hold with slight (very slight) increase in share.


Perthshire North (Mid & Fife) Constituency Vote:

SNP ~ 19860 (49.5%, +0.9)
Conservative ~ 15807 (39.4%, +0.6)
Labour ~ 2332 (5.8%, -1.8)
Lib Dem ~ 1802 (4.5%, -0.5)
Family Party ~ 334 (0.8%, +0.8)

In this instance the increased turnout not going any particular direction.
 
Dundee City West (North East) Constituency Vote:

SNP ~ 19818 (61.6%, +3.8)
Labour ~ 6899 (21.5%, -4.6)
Conservative ~ 3327 (10.3%, +0.2)
Lib Dem ~ 1269 (3.9%, +0.3)
TUSC ~ 432 (1.3%, -1)
Restore Scotland ~ 410 (1.3%, +1.3)
 
First marginal battleground seat is in. SNP hold with slight (very slight) increase in share.


Perthshire North (Mid & Fife) Constituency Vote:

SNP ~ 19860 (49.5%, +0.9)
Conservative ~ 15807 (39.4%, +0.6)
Labour ~ 2332 (5.8%, -1.8)
Lib Dem ~ 1802 (4.5%, -0.5)
Family Party ~ 334 (0.8%, +0.8)

In this instance the increased turnout not going any particular direction.

When your opponent is a scarcely literate, angry upper middle aged tumshie in a Marks & Spencers body warmer, you need be ashamed if there's any swing towards him.

Swinney got the job done despite a bumpy ride in the last parliament.

Murdo Fraser's eighth consecutive defeat in a constituency election, a record that would embarrass even Farage. Sadly there's the top up list, which the Tories oppose ideologically, but it will nevertheless allow him to ooze back into the parliament, like pile ointment from a rusting tube in landfill.
 
SNP hold Banff & Buchan despite Tories puring resources in there and an attmepted "Save the Union" tac vote.

10.3 % swing to Tories but....unlucky :D



big result.
 
Ooft. Close call.


Banffshire & Buchan Coast (North East) Constituency Vote:

SNP ~ 14920 (45.2%, -9.9)
Conservative ~ 14148 (42.9%, +10.7)
Labour ~ 2169 (6.6%, -1.7)
Lib Dem ~ 1071 (3.2%, -1.3)
Freedom Alliance ~ 347 (1.1%, +1.1)
Restore Scotland ~ 331 (1%, +1)
 
Down in Killy


Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley (South) Constituency Vote:

SNP ~ 21418 (52.7%, -2.7)
Labour ~ 9737 (24%, +1.1)
Conservative ~ 8295 (20.4%, +1.2)
Lib Dem ~ 919 (2.3%, -0.3)
Libertarian ~ 253 (0.6%, +0.6)
 
Glasgow Anniesland (Glasgow) Constituency Vote:

SNP ~ 17501 (52.8%, +1)
Labour ~ 10913 (32.9%, +2.4)
Conservative ~ 3688 (11.1%, -2.9)
Lib Dem ~ 1063 (3.2%, -0.6)
 
Curtice saying that the NE & Islands results could be unrepresentative, but looking like the nationalists won't get their overall majority if it all plays out in the current rates.
 
Curtice saying that the NE & Islands results could be unrepresentative, but looking like the nationalists won't get their overall majority if it all plays out in the current rates.
Yeah, they’d need their targets to swing differently than the overall picture.
 
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