Holyrood elections May 2021

[danny la rouge]

Combined pro Indy parties:

Lean Tossup: 79
Election Maps UK: 78
Europe Elects: 73
Ballot Box Scotland: 73
New Statesman: 73

 

[weepiper]

 

[danny la rouge]

I’ve seen reports of people still queuing at 10pm. Not sure how widespread that was though.

 

[weepiper]

I don't know if this is good or bad. It's torture really. (My seat)

 

[weepiper]

Mr W has just told me that he tore down the Tory posters off the A boards outside two or three polling stations on his way past this afternoon (as is his usual wont on election days). A guy was watching him do it at one of them and Mr W jovially said to him on his way past (imagine a Scottish accent here) 'fucking Tory cunts eh, chuck 'em in the bin!'

 

[danny la rouge]

Lots of talk of high turnout. This from a Sky journo.

 

[Sue]

Any guesses on what increased turnout could indicate or is that impossible to know/different in different areas?

 

[danny la rouge]

Any guesses on what increased turnout could indicate or is that impossible to know/different in different areas?

Well, received wisdom is that people don’t vote when they think it’s a forgone conclusion. So a high turnout would usually mean they don’t think so.

But that’s not the case here. So it could be the constitutional question factor. The indyref was a high turnout. But it’s anyone’s guess whether this means that Unionists have turned out disproportionally or that pro independence voters have. Or maybe it’s just up because people are bored and it’s not a disproportionate turnout at all.

TL;DR - No. No idea.

 

[weepiper]

Any guesses on what increased turnout could indicate or is that impossible to know/different in different areas?

No idea really. I think it means strong opinions, but whose strong opinions is anyone's guess. It could be a bit of Covid lockdown boredom. But the weather was horrendous today so I think not. I mean I had to stand in the hail for 15 minutes queuing and it didn't seem to be putting anyone else off either. I was saying to my daughter (first time voter today) that the only elections I can remember having to queue like this for are the independence referendum in 2014 and the devolution referendum in 1997.

 

[Sue]

Yes, a stupid question really, given the number of different factors in play.

 

[danny la rouge]

48 of the 73 constituency seats expected today. The remaining constituencies and the 56 list seats expected tomorrow.

 

[weepiper]

Gosh.

 

[MathFabMathonwy]

Orkney remains Fib Dem.

Samuel Bown - Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party - 699
Coilla Drake - Scottish Labour Party - 290
Robert Fraser Leslie - Scottish National Party (SNP) - 3369
Liam Scott McArthur - Scottish Liberal Democrats – 7238

There was a high turnout for the Orkney poll, with 65.5% of the local electorate voting in the election.

 

[brogdale]

SNP holding so far, but the BBC reckon 1% down on the few called already?

 

[danny la rouge]

First marginal battleground seat is in. SNP hold with slight (very slight) increase in share.


Perthshire North (Mid & Fife) Constituency Vote:

SNP ~ 19860 (49.5%, +0.9)
Conservative ~ 15807 (39.4%, +0.6)
Labour ~ 2332 (5.8%, -1.8)
Lib Dem ~ 1802 (4.5%, -0.5)
Family Party ~ 334 (0.8%, +0.8)

In this instance the increased turnout not going any particular direction.

 

[danny la rouge]

SNP holding so far, but the BBC reckon 1% down on the few called already?

Bit early to generalise. 4 seats in. All holds. SNP share down in two, up in two.

 

[danny la rouge]

Dundee City West (North East) Constituency Vote:

SNP ~ 19818 (61.6%, +3.8)
Labour ~ 6899 (21.5%, -4.6)
Conservative ~ 3327 (10.3%, +0.2)
Lib Dem ~ 1269 (3.9%, +0.3)
TUSC ~ 432 (1.3%, -1)
Restore Scotland ~ 410 (1.3%, +1.3)

 

[danny la rouge]

Still only 6 results in.

 

[steeplejack]

First marginal battleground seat is in. SNP hold with slight (very slight) increase in share.


Perthshire North (Mid & Fife) Constituency Vote:

SNP ~ 19860 (49.5%, +0.9)
Conservative ~ 15807 (39.4%, +0.6)
Labour ~ 2332 (5.8%, -1.8)
Lib Dem ~ 1802 (4.5%, -0.5)
Family Party ~ 334 (0.8%, +0.8)

In this instance the increased turnout not going any particular direction.

When your opponent is a scarcely literate, angry upper middle aged tumshie in a Marks & Spencers body warmer, you need be ashamed if there's any swing towards him.

Swinney got the job done despite a bumpy ride in the last parliament.

Murdo Fraser's eighth consecutive defeat in a constituency election, a record that would embarrass even Farage. Sadly there's the top up list, which the Tories oppose ideologically, but it will nevertheless allow him to ooze back into the parliament, like pile ointment from a rusting tube in landfill.

 

[steeplejack]

SNP hold Banff & Buchan despite Tories puring resources in there and an attmepted "Save the Union" tac vote.

10.3 % swing to Tories but....unlucky


big result.

 

[danny la rouge]

Ooft. Close call.


Banffshire & Buchan Coast (North East) Constituency Vote:

SNP ~ 14920 (45.2%, -9.9)
Conservative ~ 14148 (42.9%, +10.7)
Labour ~ 2169 (6.6%, -1.7)
Lib Dem ~ 1071 (3.2%, -1.3)
Freedom Alliance ~ 347 (1.1%, +1.1)
Restore Scotland ~ 331 (1%, +1)

 

[danny la rouge]

Down in Killy


Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley (South) Constituency Vote:

SNP ~ 21418 (52.7%, -2.7)
Labour ~ 9737 (24%, +1.1)
Conservative ~ 8295 (20.4%, +1.2)
Lib Dem ~ 919 (2.3%, -0.3)
Libertarian ~ 253 (0.6%, +0.6)

 

[danny la rouge]

Glasgow Anniesland (Glasgow) Constituency Vote:

SNP ~ 17501 (52.8%, +1)
Labour ~ 10913 (32.9%, +2.4)
Conservative ~ 3688 (11.1%, -2.9)
Lib Dem ~ 1063 (3.2%, -0.6)

 

[brogdale]

BBC saying Ayr very close...apparently 3rd target seat for the nationalists?

 

[danny la rouge]

BBC saying Ayr very close...apparently 3rd target seat for the nationalists?

Yes. Tory held. Be interesting to see where the Labour vote goes.

 

[danny la rouge]

Ten seats declared now and SNP share down in most. Still winning convincingly, in most cases over 50% mind you.

 

[brogdale]

Curtice saying that the NE & Islands results could be unrepresentative, but looking like the nationalists won't get their overall majority if it all plays out in the current rates.

 

[Sue]

Can't remember which thread 'wearing a yellow star' was discussed in, but look at the state of this lot.

Scottish election 2021: Liberal Party member suspended over Yousaf confrontation

The man had been questioning SNP MSP Humza Yousaf about events in Pakistan at a count.

www.bbc.co.uk

(I once came across a guy who was a member of the Liberal party down here. He had some 'interesting' views. )

 

[danny la rouge]

Can't remember which thread 'wearing a yellow star' was discussed in, but look at these state of this lot.

Scottish election 2021: Liberal Party member suspended over Yousaf confrontation

The man had been questioning SNP MSP Humza Yousaf about events in Pakistan at a count.

www.bbc.co.uk

(I once came across a guy who was a member of the Liberal party down here. He had some 'interesting' views. )

I saw that. Total fucking fannies.

 

[danny la rouge]

Curtice saying that the NE & Islands results could be unrepresentative, but looking like the nationalists won't get their overall majority if it all plays out in the current rates.

Yeah, they’d need their targets to swing differently than the overall picture.