Is Crawley expected back for the last 2 tests? I'd expect Burns to get a reprieve based on lack of options, with Crawley for Lawrence if available. I've completely lost track of who is in the bubble, so the only other option would be Crawley to open with Sibley and Bairstow at 3 if he's still there.
Lawrence needs another go, probably in a different series, batting at 6. He's got some talent but conditions and basically opening have done him no favours - he and Pope should effectively be auditioning for the same role, with Pope the man in possession but it's not just an 11 man game.
Sibley, Root, Stokes, Foakes, Bess, Leach and Anderson are the guaranteed starters next test. Moeen going home answers the question about playing 3 spinners, not going to happen now - Broad or Woakes to partner Anderson? I suspect (and personally would choose) Broad.
My pick:
Burns
Sibley
Crawley
Root
Stokes
Pope
Foakes
Bess
Broad
Leach
Anderson