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By my rough calcs, Bitcoin is now a $315 billion worldwide ponzi scheme.

Is that big enough to have significant global economic repercussions when it implodes?
No, because the vast majority of that 'value' has never actually been paid out by anybody. The real-world global economic damage is being done by the mining. The day the thing collapses will be a very good day for the global economy.
 
A few years ago I sold my bitcoin to go on holiday (Tenerife, it was nice) and bought a new computer. It was very easy to find a buyer, I used an app while at the office xmas party as we needed to book the tickets the next day, took minutes. That was back when the market was under a billion. Still, it was a good holiday. Been meaning to start putting a fifty or so on it every month but I'm not so sure now because of those eco-concerns. One thing I'm not concerned about is that the market wouldn't have the readies when it comes to buying. Not really an answer to your question but there you go.
Marketability is not the same thing as liquidity.
 
Also that market cap figure reminds me of another long running Urban thread, the 'global financial implosion' one, which somewhere within it has some interesting figures on the value of the global derivatives market, 'worth' several times more than the GDP of the world. Not the most meaningful of metrics.

Sure, volume is probably better- dunno what that's averaging now on a daily basis but I'm pretty sure that if it were a body of flowing water it wouldn't be the sort you can wade through in your wellies.
 
By my rough calcs, Bitcoin is now a $315 billion worldwide ponzi scheme.

Is that big enough to have significant global economic repercussions when it implodes?

Correction, $530 billion is the market cap for the total crypto-currency market, so your figure for bitcoin seems to fit.
 
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No, because the vast majority of that 'value' has never actually been paid out by anybody. The real-world global economic damage is being done by the mining. The day the thing collapses will be a very good day for the global economy.

I dunno man, all those guzzling bitcoin datacentres were't paid for by nothing, they weren't built on charitable donations. There are bigger industries than bitcoin that are based on even more puzzling whims. What is value? Capital has always had its own ideas about that.

The energy thing by the way I'm less pessimistic about, the bulk of actual energy use that is problematic here is all about shifting heat about, heat is pretty useful. The most successful miners will be those that can make their energy use as cheap and sustainable as possible, so they'll be looking to things like geo-thermal, hydro and solar- maybe even nuke (thorium hopefully rather than apocalypse-ammo waste, and more likely if we're talking China or India based mining). Also talking about better designed datacentres, cooling techniques, chip tech. Currently our electronic technology amounts to tiny little cavemen bashing things with clubs on the electron-scale, plenty of room for innovation there I think, could even be bitcoin miners looking to increase profits that make future advances in low-energy computing- I'm not one to rely on capitalism and technology to save the world but you can bet that if it means profits then ways will be found re doing more with less at any rate. You can depend on greed that's for damn sure.

Also, ways will be found (and are being found) to exploit the heat itself, thermal energy is pretty useful, people on this thread have even testified to that, warming their houses with their rigs etc. I don't see miners ignoring opportunities to direct that heat to other uses. The expansion in energy use may ultimately become the consumption of other processes that generate or consume heat. A million monkeys looking for an angle, too early to say if they'll produce Shakespeare or just a lot of random strings but it's a technology issue, technology and economics. I already mentioned the use of bitcoin as er... flash-demand that can be turned on or off to absorb the output of power-stations that take a long time to power up or down.

Chinese datacentres running on coal- if the Chinese government can be taken seriously (and they do seem like a serious bunch, bankers in the West don't even get sent to prison when they fuck about, let alone get executed) then it looks like the days of coal-power are numbered in China, even if these issues are just weapons that factions within the vast CCP use to attack eachother it looks like coal is becoming more of a vulnerability to its protectors in China than a boon, coal powered bitoin business-plans may not be considered to be a safe bet in the long term. Something that annoys me though is when Westerners slag off China for all the waste it produces in making the cheap products that Westerners like to buy. The use of China as a whipping boy for the activities of the modern world is just really fucking lame. We're all responsible for Chinas smog problems, the degradation of its rivers and farm-lands, the health issues of its people and the general contribution of Chinese industry to global climate change, and yet it's China rather than the United States that (at the government level) has recognized all this as a problem that needs sorting. All this "China- Boo!" crap has got to end.

I find the subject of bitcoin and crypto fascinating obviously, but I wouldn't bother getting up on a high horse about it because at the end of the day we're only talking about money, even if you don't think bitcoin is itself a form of money we're still taling about money, dirty sexy nasty bloody amoral money. It simply cannot be a moral position either way.

"What will you do with your bitcoin Craig?"
"Ah it's such a revolution, I'm gonna pay off my debts"
"yeah"
"buy a nice flat"
"yeah"
"go on a cruise"
"nice"
"buy some drugs"
"fair play"
"pay some prostitues to pee on my face"
"er..."
"get that semi-automatic with the silver plating I've always wanted"
"um..."
"pay a guy to kill that man I hate and exploit the fuck out of people who are much poorer than myself and also whatever portion of the environment I can turn into luxury yachts"
"oh dear." awkward silence "but you can do all that with dollars Craig"
"yes".

Money and wealth is amoral, you won't find me standing up for bitcoin as a moral position or the (I now think) played-up role of empowering the un-banked etc (it's the Power, stupid) or making out like Visa represents decency and and good sense on this thread. I humbly suggest that moralizing against bitcoin on the basis of whether it's a bubble or not just looks... I dunno, weird. On the basis of energy concerns ok fair enough but even there we're far from a definite conclusion because the technology not only doesn't stand still, it moves really fucking fast, it's very much a moving target iyswim, so it's worth following closely to see where it's going 'now'. If bitcoin is a disaster we still don't know in what specific way it will be a disaster, and if bitcoin is a bubble- well so is the incumbent financial system because absolutely nothing was changed about it since 2008. The question of "when will it all collapse" is better asked of the global wealth system as a whole.
 
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Ok a lot in there. I agree with you about China. It is, among other things, the world leader in sustainable energy investment, and as you say, its energy footprint is also our energy footprint. But energy is energy. bc running on clean energy is still wasting that resource on something useless.

As for 'Visa represents decency and good sense', well wrt the 'good sense' bit, compared to bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency, it is good sense. It performs a large function efficiently. Bitcoin performs a tiny function absurdly inefficiently. Forget about bitcoin as a currency. It's simply incapable of working as one at the moment, even if there were the demand for it, which there isn't.

You're kidding yourself if you think we can't draw a definite conclusion re the energy use of bitcoin. We very much can, and several posters have explained why we can. You're in denial over that point.
 
...if bitcoin is a bubble- well so is the incumbent financial system because absolutely nothing was changed about it since 2008. The question of "when will it all collapse" is better asked of the global wealth system as a whole.
You can ask both, and yeah, I do think the contemporary global financial system is in a perilous, bubble-like state, but again, wouldn't like to predict when exactly it might break. A proper economic crisis will kill Bitcoin right away though, not make it stronger like the numpties seem to think. Small crises like national ones may be more complicated.
 
There Never Was a Real Tulip Fever | History | Smithsonian

So if tulipmania wasn’t actually a calamity, why was it made out to be one? We have tetchy Christian moralists to blame for that. With great wealth comes great social anxiety, or as historian Simon Schama writes in The Embarrassment of Riches: An Interpretation of Dutch Culture in the Golden Age, “The prodigious quality of their success went to their heads, but it also made them a bit queasy.” All the outlandish stories of economic ruin, of an innocent sailor thrown in prison for eating a tulip bulb, of chimney sweeps wading into the market in hopes of striking it rich—those come from propaganda pamphlets published by Dutch Calvinists worried that the tulip-propelled consumerism boom would lead to societal decay. Their insistence that such great wealth was ungodly has even stayed with us to this day.

“Some of the stuff hasn’t lasted, like the idea that God punishes people who are overreaching by causing them to have the plague. That’s one of the things people said in the 1630s,” Goldgar says. “But the idea that you get punished if you overreach? You still hear that. It’s all, ‘pride goes before the fall.’”
 
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There was a tulip bubble. What I've read from recent historians is a questioning of a) how many people were involved and b) how much money actually changed hands. A minority interest in a thing whose value was mostly only ever on paper... The parallels still stand up. Although bc is of course many many times worse and more foolish.
 
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There was a tulip bubble. What I've read from recent historians is a questioning of a) how many people were involved and b) how much money actually changed hands. A minority interest in a thing whose value was mostly only ever on paper... The parallels still stand up. Although bc is of course many many times worse and more foolish.

Still, I suspect you'll have to bring more than a bunch of tulips to a fight against crypto.
thumb_COLOURBOX9312123.jpg
 
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Been buying and using BTC for 3-4 years now, and the one thing i do know is every year it goes up before Xmas and dips/tanks after xmas....

always assumed it was the higher use for drugs sales in the lead up to xmas and the new year.... I have nothing to prove that however.
 
ever used this machine Ranbay ?
seen it years ago, didn't know it was still there

loads of eulogising in this article
The ordinary Welsh people making thousands (and more) from Bitcoin
That's appalling. I'm astounded by the bullshit that has been exploding as fast as bitcoin's energy consumption.

Of course the current layer in the pyramid will predict the price will go up to 100k. They need to get the next layer in.:facepalm: Some people are going to be seriously burned by this, people who can scarcely afford to be. :(
 
That's appalling. I'm astounded by the bullshit that has been exploding as fast as bitcoin's energy consumption.

Of course the current layer in the pyramid will predict the price will go up to 100k. They need to get the next layer in.:facepalm: Some people are going to be seriously burned by this, people who can scarcely afford to be. :(

The faithful know that god will punish them for taking the devils coin. Personally I hope that doesn't happen and that it works out for everyone. We'll see.
 
I've been into crypto since late August. A learning curve, taking a break, a giant hike and a lot of fun later I'm up about 8x my original stake.

We can argue from here to next Christmas about whether it's a classic bubble or a genuine goldrush, everyone has to make their own judgements about that.

Two things from me (a) blockchain is a fantastic technology and is here to stay. It may be revolutionary, even, and (b) I have enough in the game now to make meaningful withdrawals, so as of January I'll take out 10% of new profit every month.

It's quite the drama though.
 
I've been into crypto since late August. A learning curve, taking a break, a giant hike and a lot of fun later I'm up about 8x my original stake.

We can argue from here to next Christmas about whether it's a classic bubble or a genuine goldrush, everyone has to make their own judgements about that.

Two things from me (a) blockchain is a fantastic technology and is here to stay. It may be revolutionary, even, and (b) I have enough in the game now to make meaningful withdrawals, so as of January I'll take out 10% of new profit every month.

It's quite the drama though.
Who will carry out the labour that generates your profit?
 
I guess the miners.
No, it is all the people who are also "investing" in bitcoin. Bitcoin is not a stock that pays dividends, it's an asset. You can only profit from it if someone is willing to pay more for it than you did. And *they* can only profit if someone pays more than that. This is the very definition of a pyramid scheme.
 
You don't think I've thought and discussed this for 4 months?

As I posted, everyone has to make their own call with this - the spectrum of views is enormously wide, and a lot of people want to tell me they're right.
 
You don't think I've thought and discussed this for 4 months?

As I posted, everyone has to make their own call with this - the spectrum of views is enormously wide, and a lot of people want to tell me they're right.
And in the meantime, every time you take a profit payment, you are using as much electricity as your household usually uses in three weeks. And that’s only going up.

By the time you’ve done that 10 times, you’ve used more than half a year’s typical household energy, in a country in which households already use unsustainable levels of energy.

So it’s not just an academic argument about good gambles. It’s you fucking over all the rest of us.
 
I've been into crypto since late August. A learning curve, taking a break, a giant hike and a lot of fun later I'm up about 8x my original stake.

We can argue from here to next Christmas about whether it's a classic bubble or a genuine goldrush, everyone has to make their own judgements about that.

Two things from me (a) blockchain is a fantastic technology and is here to stay. It may be revolutionary, even, and (b) I have enough in the game now to make meaningful withdrawals, so as of January I'll take out 10% of new profit every month.

It's quite the drama though.

What price did you get in at?
 
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