Bitcoin discussion and news

[NoXion]

Bitcoin is something of a fever, and it's contagious. One of the symptoms of Bitcoin Fever is that you actually want the bitcoins, you're still looking at bitcoin enthusiasts as if it's all just a scheme for them to acquire more dollars for example, such a participant certainly adds the capacity for the sort of bubble-behaviour you expect and there are plenty of people that way inclined. but you're not getting that the increasingly deep-pocked drivers at the heart of the bitcoin community, the holders, the zealots, the fixed-eyed crypto-maniacs and hardcore adherants... for them bitcoins themselves are the objective, and they're serious ernest bitleivers in this. consider the images below:

Yes, I know... and furthermore...

These Matrix-memes actually do reflect the mindset of what I think of as Hodl-Culture and it's creed the Bitcoin Religion, very much a "from my cold dead hands" attitude to bitcoin. And it's not even just libertarian crazies out in their bunkers that have somehow managed to make the leap from understanding lumps of shinny yellow metal being real to knowing that pure information in an immutable decentralized ledger as also "real". When the price falls- the bitleivers see it as a flash sale, it's Black Friday for them, and of course all along they're evangelizing about it bringing in others (both up and down by the way), paying for stuff with it- not just drugs and guns and those oppressed markets but countless small vendors selling hand made wooden unicorns on their websites or whatever (hey, it can be sold for dollars right).

If you're looking for the basic elements that form bubble-behaviour in the driving core of this community- rational economic actors, then you'll only predict like 80% of the market or something using Pareto's Principal (80/20) as a thumb-guide. New entrants flake and flee all the time having acquired the dollars or euros or pounds etc that they're really interested in but the driving core that kept the flame alive even through the two years of bitcoin prices sideways-down to oblivion, you're not properly accounting for them and that's a mistake if you want to understand how this crypto market will behave in my opinion. And I don't see a shortage in the supply of such people any time soon. Cheap prices just send them into a feeding frenzy and once they load up they exert even more outward pressure to involve new people in various ways (not to mention that their own commitment is now even more involved).

You think everyone flakes and flees after a drop because bitcoin is just a scammy pyramid scheme scam, but that's because you've not yet grasped that to a great deal of eager money bitcoin is itself the objective. It's dificult for a bubble to pop when serious entrants look at the "bubble" as their natural home (again- the first image). This market can remain 'irrational' (subjective) for longer than Earth can remain solvent. gulp.

Sounds more like a cult than a currency. Which wouldn't be so bad if it wasn't fucking up the atmosphere's shit via Chinese coal plants.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Bitcoin is something of a fever, and it's contagious. One of the symptoms of Bitcoin Fever is that you actually want the bitcoins, you're still looking at bitcoin enthusiasts as if it's all just a scheme for them to acquire more dollars for example, such a participant certainly adds the capacity for the sort of bubble-behaviour you expect and there are plenty of people that way inclined. but you're not getting that the increasingly deep-pocked drivers at the heart of the bitcoin community, the holders, the zealots, the fixed-eyed crypto-maniacs and hardcore adherants... for them bitcoins themselves are the objective, and they're serious ernest bitleivers in this. consider the images below:

Yes, I know... and furthermore...

These Matrix-memes actually do reflect the mindset of what I think of as Hodl-Culture and it's creed the Bitcoin Religion, very much a "from my cold dead hands" attitude to bitcoin. And it's not even just libertarian crazies out in their bunkers that have somehow managed to make the leap from understanding lumps of shinny yellow metal being real to knowing that pure information in an immutable decentralized ledger as also "real". When the price falls- the bitleivers see it as a flash sale, it's Black Friday for them, and of course all along they're evangelizing about it bringing in others (both up and down by the way), paying for stuff with it- not just drugs and guns and those oppressed markets but countless small vendors selling hand made wooden unicorns on their websites or whatever (hey, it can be sold for dollars right).

If you're looking for the basic elements that form bubble-behaviour in the driving core of this community- rational economic actors, then you'll only predict like 80% of the market or something using Pareto's Principal (80/20) as a thumb-guide. New entrants flake and flee all the time having acquired the dollars or euros or pounds etc that they're really interested in but the driving core that kept the flame alive even through the two years of bitcoin prices sideways-down to oblivion, you're not properly accounting for them and that's a mistake if you want to understand how this crypto market will behave in my opinion. And I don't see a shortage in the supply of such people any time soon. Cheap prices just send them into a feeding frenzy and once they load up they exert even more outward pressure to involve new people in various ways (not to mention that their own commitment is now even more involved).

You think everyone flakes and flees after a drop because bitcoin is just a scammy pyramid scheme scam, but that's because you've not yet grasped that to a great deal of eager money bitcoin is itself the objective. It's dificult for a bubble to pop when serious entrants look at the "bubble" as their natural home (again- the first image). This market can remain 'irrational' (subjective) for longer than Earth can remain solvent. gulp.

People really wanted bulbs too for a short while. The decentralised immutable ledger is a real thing, sure. Which takes us back to its use value. If bc plunges from today's highs even just back to around $2-3k (the record high as recently as this summer), a hell of a lot of vendors will be out of pocket. It's a terrible way to run a business to use something as volatile as this as your currency. Your core real believers may continue to be enthusiastic, but nobody else will. There won't be countless small vendors accepting bitcoin. Why would they? From the info I can gather, the number of transactions per block has been rising steadily over the last six years until this year. Right at the point where this year's explosion in price started, the transactions per block was flat-lining. There is no evidence at all for what you say, for the idea that bitcoin use, as opposed to bitcoin speculation, is catching on. The bubble is not related to the use value.

If a bitcoin bubbler leaves non-bitcoin people behind in their bubble (having ruined the planet for everyone else, presumably), that will be because they have taken wealth from others, not created it. All they create is a decentralised immutalbe ledger that 99.9 % of the people of the world could not give two shits about. All bitcoin does is destroy wealth through its mad setup. If it also allows a few to get rich, they have done that at the expense of others.

 

[mauvais]

You think everyone flakes and flees after a drop because bitcoin is just a scammy pyramid scheme scam, but that's because you've not yet grasped that to a great deal of eager money bitcoin is itself the objective. It's dificult for a bubble to pop when serious entrants look at the "bubble" as their natural home (again- the first image). This market can remain 'irrational' (subjective) for longer than Earth can remain solvent. gulp.

The people at the top of the culty pyramid scheme can drink all the Kool-Aid they like, but it's still a pyramid scheme and so still requires a constant influx of new money from otherwise uninterested randoms if it's to sustain its external value (USD or whatever). Otherwise, sure, the market still exists but only in some sort of ever-decreasing, weird collectible-seeking nutjob way that is limited in value to whatever they can afford to fight each other for.

 

[kabbes]

Bitcoin is something of a fever, and it's contagious. One of the symptoms of Bitcoin Fever is that you actually want the bitcoins, you're still looking at bitcoin enthusiasts as if it's all just a scheme for them to acquire more dollars for example, such a participant certainly adds the capacity for the sort of bubble-behaviour you expect and there are plenty of people that way inclined. but you're not getting that the increasingly deep-pocked drivers at the heart of the bitcoin community, the holders, the zealots, the fixed-eyed crypto-maniacs and hardcore adherants... for them bitcoins themselves are the objective, and they're serious ernest bitleivers in this. consider the images below:

Yes, I know... and furthermore...

These Matrix-memes actually do reflect the mindset of what I think of as Hodl-Culture and it's creed the Bitcoin Religion, very much a "from my cold dead hands" attitude to bitcoin. And it's not even just libertarian crazies out in their bunkers that have somehow managed to make the leap from understanding lumps of shinny yellow metal being real to knowing that pure information in an immutable decentralized ledger as also "real". When the price falls- the bitleivers see it as a flash sale, it's Black Friday for them, and of course all along they're evangelizing about it bringing in others (both up and down by the way), paying for stuff with it- not just drugs and guns and those oppressed markets but countless small vendors selling hand made wooden unicorns on their websites or whatever (hey, it can be sold for dollars right).

If you're looking for the basic elements that form bubble-behaviour in the driving core of this community- rational economic actors, then you'll only predict like 80% of the market or something using Pareto's Principal (80/20) as a thumb-guide. New entrants flake and flee all the time having acquired the dollars or euros or pounds etc that they're really interested in but the driving core that kept the flame alive even through the two years of bitcoin prices sideways-down to oblivion, you're not properly accounting for them and that's a mistake if you want to understand how this crypto market will behave in my opinion. And I don't see a shortage in the supply of such people any time soon. Cheap prices just send them into a feeding frenzy and once they load up they exert even more outward pressure to involve new people in various ways (not to mention that their own commitment is now even more involved).

You think everyone flakes and flees after a drop because bitcoin is just a scammy pyramid scheme scam, but that's because you've not yet grasped that to a great deal of eager money bitcoin is itself the objective. It's dificult for a bubble to pop when serious entrants look at the "bubble" as their natural home (again- the first image). This market can remain 'irrational' (subjective) for longer than Earth can remain solvent. gulp.

So your theory is that the reason for bitcoin’s 100000% inflation in value in a handful of years is because of the faith of the hardcore? What happened, did the numbers of the hardcore suddenly multiply a thousandfold?

The hardcore might prop up a basic value of a dollar or so, but the reason it has grown so rapidly is out and out speculation. All those billboard adverts on the tube encouraging bitcoin gambling aren’t appealing to matrix memers, you know.

 

[AverageJoe]

You guys do realise there's more cryptocurrency out there than bitcoin yes?

One of them eventually will change the face of finance. Right now it's essentially a gamble about which one it will be.

It might not be bitcoin.

Look at pretty much all technical advances over the last 20 years. VHS vs Betamax, CD vs Minidisk (or equivalent), Apple vs Samsung, Facebook vs MySpace etc. If you are bullish and get it right, then you'll be shouting it out. If you are wrong you will be naysaying.

Ive got pretty deep investment in crypto and so far I've done OK, but you won't hear me eulogising about it because I still don't know enough. And noone really does yet.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Ive got pretty deep investment in crypto and so far I've done OK, but you won't hear me eulogising about it because I still don't know enough. And noone really does yet.

Sorry but we can know certain things. We can know that, in stark contrast to all the examples you give above, bitcoin produces a very minimal use value. We can know that, despite the propaganda that's being put around about its marvellous qualities, its use as currency has crept up over the last few years, only to stagnate over the last couple of years. The bollocks about bc being a great way for people in difficult parts of the world to transfer money to one another just isn't borne out. You can buy illegal drugs, or prescription drugs from China. That's its primary use . Let's not kid ourselves here. It even has built-in obsolescence to its minimal use value.

And because of the above, we can know that the way the price has gone is a bubble, which will need to be accounted for. We can also know that it is burning energy at an absurd rate. So your 'investment' facilitates drug dealing, burns absurd amounts of energy, and only produces returns at the expense of others who will lose out when the thing crashes.

 

[AverageJoe]

Neither of us know. There isn't enough historical data for either of us to possibly know.

At the moment, investing in any crypto is a gamble. It could be the next Apple or Facebook (in terms of investment) or or could be the next Ratners or laserdisc

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Sorry but we can know certain things. We can know that, in stark contrast to all the examples you give above, bitcoin produces a very minimal use value. We can know that, despite the propaganda that's being put around about its marvellous qualities, its use as currency has crept up over the last few years, only to stagnate over the last couple of years. The bollocks about bc being a great way for people in difficult parts of the world to transfer money to one another just isn't borne out. You can buy illegal drugs, or prescription drugs from China. That's its primary use . Let's not kid ourselves here. It even has built-in obsolescence to its minimal use value.

And because of the above, we can know that the way the price has gone is a bubble, which will need to be accounted for. We can also know that it is burning energy at an absurd rate. So your 'investment' facilitates drug dealing, burns absurd amounts of energy, and only produces returns at the expense of others who will lose out when the thing crashes.

All of the above appears true, but I still wish I'd bought some a few years back.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Neither of us know. There isn't enough historical data for either of us to possibly know.

At the moment, investing in any crypto is a gamble. It could be the next Apple or Facebook (in terms of investment) or or could be the next Ratners or laserdisc

You haven't understood at least part of what I'm saying. Your comparisons don't work because you're comparing with businesses that were invested in for their use value. That's not the case here.

 

[AverageJoe]

To be fair, you're probably right.

I'm more of a 'grab it and go with it' kind of person than someone who over analyses stuff and misses the opportunity.

There's plenty of room for us both.

 

[mauvais]

Look at pretty much all technical advances over the last 20 years. VHS vs Betamax, CD vs Minidisk (or equivalent), Apple vs Samsung, Facebook vs MySpace etc. If you are bullish and get it right, then you'll be shouting it out. If you are wrong you will be naysaying.

Poor parallel.

These are all competing standards and formats - different implementations of the same concepts & utilities, with a clear use case underpinning each. Whether it was Betamax or VHS that won out, you would still end up with a means of recording and storing audiovisual data, the same job, and a lot of people wanted that job done. If they didn't know they wanted it, they could be sold it.

A million competing standards for something useless are still all useless. What's the utility? The competition here is apparently not which cryptocurrency will win, but cryptocurrency vs. noone giving a shit.

This is more like Facebook vs. nothing, except even Facebook evolved from other things, so it's not that simple.

I do agree with you to some extent, that blockchain or possibly even cryptocurrency in some form may find its utility, but we are getting to be some distance away from today.

 

[AverageJoe]

I was taking about investing in one or the other as opposed to owning one or the other

 

[mauvais]

I was taking about investing in one or the other as opposed to owning one or the other

Yes, but if you backed say, HD-DVD against Blu-Ray, you would have lost your money in a pretty typical horse race. If you back say, Bitcoin versus Ethereum, you might find you've not only lost your money but that all the horses were already frozen lasagne and the race was just a dream. A loss is a loss but I know where I'd rather be putting my tenner.

 

[AverageJoe]

Well like said earlier, I'm no expert and just learning, but in April I put a little into bitcoin, got free bitcoin cash, Ethereum and ripple and at the moment it seems to be all OK for me.

But that doesn't mean it will be

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Ethereum burns about a third of the enormous energy burning of bitcoin, and if the price goes up, so will its energy burning. And again, for a very similar scale of transactions. This shit is burning the planet. It needs to stop.

 

[newbie]

To be fair, you're probably right.

I'm more of a 'grab it and go with it' kind of person than someone who over analyses stuff and misses the opportunity.

There's plenty of room for us both.

is there? and room for the rest of us as well, or don't rising sea levels matter?

Anyway, it's crept up. No longer Denmark (59). Right now only 4 buyers and 4 sellers are using as much energy as all of Belarus, number 58.

 

[camouflage]

People really wanted bulbs too for a short while. The decentralised immutable ledger is a real thing, sure. Which takes us back to its use value. If bc plunges from today's highs even just back to around $2-3k (the record high as recently as this summer), a hell of a lot of vendors will be out of pocket. It's a terrible way to run a business to use something as volatile as this as your currency. Your core real believers may continue to be enthusiastic, but nobody else will. There won't be countless small vendors accepting bitcoin. Why would they? From the info I can gather, the number of transactions per block has been rising steadily over the last six years until this year. Right at the point where this year's explosion in price started, the transactions per block was flat-lining. There is no evidence at all for what you say, for the idea that bitcoin use, as opposed to bitcoin speculation, is catching on. The bubble is not related to the use value.

I didn't make myself clear re the small vendors, I wasn't talking about bitcoin being used as a currency by countless small vendors regarding use-value in transactions, but about the bitcoin evangelism where enthusiasts encourage vendors to accept bitcoin and are often willing to pay a reasonable premium if necessary being part of the "bringing more people in" pyramid dynamic. In fact I'd include donations in that, all part of an effort of expanding mind-share that price-falls actually increase. Bitcoin isn't a pyramid scheme, it's a Movement (perhaps a bowel movement of the capitalist beast some might say, a fucking revolution and "the Real Occupy Wall Street" according to others).

You're right though, due to bandwidth issues in the technology transactional-use has become impractical. The recent bitcoin schisms and forks are a result of that, contentions in the question of how to solve the problem, but that's a technology matter and there's strong consensus about how to tackle those issues (Layer-2, LN etc). It's the problem of a club that's become too crowded maybe. Some big-shots in the mining-space in China wanted to solve the problem with bigger blocks- making the barrier to entry higher, more expensive, more demanding, more centralized and much faster (at least at first). However miners don't control bitcoin so they just ended up with a fork called Bcash. That solution wouldn't scale long term anyway, doubling block size in an attempt to stay ahead of an exponential curve is a dead end with an ever-increasing footprint, what's needed is an additional layer of complexity that sits on top of bitcoin so that it scales up rather than scaling out re blocksize. That layer of complexity might be a new industry-space of clients, payment processors, exchanges etc. We'll have to see how things develop to see if the middle-man gets his way after all.

But as ever with technology it depends on what your priorities are and what you're trying to do in the first place, bitcoins rise since what some would describe as "the miners attempted coup" has been rapid as uncertainty cleared up, so it looks like whatever bitcoin is it doesn't care about being a form of cash. Another thing about technology is that nobody really knows what the implications are until it plays out, engineers and contributors to the Bitcoin Core project contribute and the "million monkeys" bash away at whatever makes release which in turn informs what engineers and contributors propose and contribute. Something will be emerging from all this, but rather like water solving its way through the problem of how to get from your overflowing bathtub on the third floor to the ground-floor neighbours sitting room, it's largely an unconscious process that nobody really sets out and says "this is the route we'll take".

An interesting article I found:
How Fear Is Being Used to Manipulate Cryptocurrency Markets

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The limitation for scaling up transaction numbers is just one more layer of idiocy, tbh. It appears that bc is struggling already, even with its tiny levels, producing backlogs and meaning you may have to pay a premium to jump the queue. Even at these absolutely tiny levels. Reading up on Etherium, they use the fact that they reckon they can handle more transactions than bc as a selling point for their pyramid scheme, but even then they're talking about limits of around 1 million per day with their current set-up, which is still tiny.

Blockchain technology is being looked into by various people for various uses, including the Chinese govt, which is apparently developing its own version. The technology may well come to be used for secure transactions in the future, presumably without the absurd requirement to expend energy on a pointless endeavour in order to release a block. But none of these ridiculous pyramid schemes will survive.

 

[camouflage]

The people at the top of the culty pyramid scheme can drink all the Kool-Aid they like, but it's still a pyramid scheme and so still requires a constant influx of new money from otherwise uninterested randoms if it's to sustain its external value (USD or whatever). Otherwise, sure, the market still exists but only in some sort of ever-decreasing, weird collectible-seeking nutjob way that is limited in value to whatever they can afford to fight each other for.

Be that as it may, the adherants and bitcoins deflationary nature mean it is able to survive downturns that would overwise have made your predictions true already. The culty-core powers through, the bubblites come and go and excelerate the process on the up and feed the culty-core when it goes down. I reckon the majority of bitcoin out there is accumilating in the accounts of "hodlers", and increasing their wealth gradually over time so that their culty-coreness (and new er... acolytes) are becoming an ever stronger force over all. You're underestimating the power and size of said core and the resulting survivability of the bitcoin function (buy a hundred dollars worth of bitcoin at whatever price > wait a year > profit) in could be argued that appreciation is bitcoins main use at the moment. I also think there's an under-appreciation of the power of newtork effects and exponential growth here, the vigorousness of these combinations is taking people aback because exponential curves and network effects can be difficult to fit in ones head.

I'm reminded again of the foolish scientists in that teevee sciffy movie that created a black hole to devour nuclear waste but instead doomed humanity to feed an ever hungrier angry god forever (or until the physical limitations of planet Earth impose themselves).

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Be that as it may, the adherants and bitcoins deflationary nature mean it is able to survive downturns that would overwise have made your predictions true already. The culty-core powers through, the bubblites come and go and excelerate the process on the up and feed the culty-core when it goes down. I reckon the majority of bitcoin out there is accumilating in the accounts of "hodlers", and increasing their wealth gradually over time so that their culty-coreness (and new er... acolytes) are becoming an ever stronger force over all. You're underestimating the power and size of said core and the resulting survivability of the bitcoin function (buy a hundred dollars worth of bitcoin at whatever price > wait a year > profit) in could be argued that appreciation is bitcoins main use at the moment. I also think there's an under-appreciation of the power of newtork effects and exponential growth here, the vigorousness of these combinations is taking people aback because exponential curves and network effects can be difficult to fit in ones head.

You do realise that all you're doing here is describing a pyramid scheme? I'm sorry but your posts give me the impression that you don't properly grasp where this 'wealth' is coming from.

 

[camouflage]

The limitation for scaling up transaction numbers is just one more layer of idiocy, tbh. It appears that bc is struggling already, even with its tiny levels, producing backlogs and meaning you may have to pay a premium to jump the queue. Even at these absolutely tiny levels. Reading up on Etherium, they use the fact that they reckon they can handle more transactions than bc as a selling point for their pyramid scheme, but even then they're talking about limits of around 1 million per day with their current set-up, which is still tiny.

Blockchain technology is being looked into by various people for various uses, including the Chinese govt, which is apparently developing its own version. The technology may well come to be used for secure transactions in the future, presumably without the absurd requirement to expend energy on a pointless endeavour in order to release a block. But none of these ridiculous pyramid schemes will survive.

That's probably what they said about capitalism. But yeah sure, "bearer bonds" might survive but all this other nonsense.. pah.

 

[camouflage]

You do realise that all you're doing here is describing a pyramid scheme? I'm sorry but your posts give me the impression that you don't properly grasp where this 'wealth' is coming from.

What I'm suggesting is that bitcoin looks like a "self-sustaining" pyramid scheme, the resource it depends on isn't new fiat, but new people to value it for some reason. Theoretically that could be new humans themselves (raw global population growth- regardless of if fiat is still around).

If anything I think my posts don't give enough credit for the fact that there are some crazy smart people in this space, engineer-smart maybe so that doesn't necessarily mean very wise, but still crazy smart. Bitcoin "makes use of" all sorts, greed, fear, cultiness, cleverness, revolutionism, rage ("they'll forget" said the bankers after 2008, "things will go back to normal"). I think bitcoin even has a use for the skeptisism and hate of people like you, your protestations only help feed the beast.

 

[camouflage]

You guys do realise there's more cryptocurrency out there than bitcoin yes?

One of them eventually will change the face of finance. Right now it's essentially a gamble about which one it will be.

It might not be bitcoin.

Look at pretty much all technical advances over the last 20 years. VHS vs Betamax, CD vs Minidisk (or equivalent), Apple vs Samsung, Facebook vs MySpace etc. If you are bullish and get it right, then you'll be shouting it out. If you are wrong you will be naysaying.

Ive got pretty deep investment in crypto and so far I've done OK, but you won't hear me eulogising about it because I still don't know enough. And noone really does yet.

Threads about bitcoin init.

 

[mauvais]

Be that as it may, the adherants and bitcoins deflationary nature mean it is able to survive downturns that would overwise have made your predictions true already. The culty-core powers through, the bubblites come and go and excelerate the process on the up and feed the culty-core when it goes down. I reckon the majority of bitcoin out there is accumilating in the accounts of "hodlers", and increasing their wealth gradually over time so that their culty-coreness (and new er... acolytes) are becoming an ever stronger force over all. <snip>

There's only so many times this stuff bears repeating, but:

- all of what you're saying can be said of any finite commodity

- accumulation and hoarding reduces liquidity of a market, which is ultimately the lifeblood of that market. Remember supply/demand - throttled supply increases the price but also puts demand at risk. Think illiquid, think fine art. Forget commodity bitcoin, fancy trying to trade million dollar artworks? That's what we're talking here, an endgame of trading with your small group of rich peers in the same niche, except art - whilst physically worthless - has actually endured for thousands of years.

- your comment on 'true already' - bubbles can be sustained for a very long time. I don't care to guess how long Bitcoin mania can go on. I've said that other things are bubbles for some time, Tesla being an obvious one. I also don't care to bet when Tesla's share price might collapse. That's the trouble with irrationality - it's folly to predict when it might end.

- the power you speak of is purely internal to the market. Real power is derived from the external, people with dollars. Major bitcoin hoarders can corner the market and control the supply but only influence demand. Unlike oil or corn, noone really needs what they've got.

 

[camouflage]

There's only so many times this stuff bears repeating, but:

- all of what you're saying can be said of any finite commodity

- accumulation and hoarding reduces liquidity of a market, which is ultimately the lifeblood of that market. Remember supply/demand - throttled supply increases the price but also puts demand at risk. Think illiquid, think fine art. Forget commodity bitcoin, fancy trying to trade million dollar artworks? That's what we're talking here, an endgame of trading with your small group of rich peers in the same niche, except art - whilst physically worthless - has actually endured for thousands of years.

- your comment on 'true already' - bubbles can be sustained for a very long time. I don't care to guess how long Bitcoin mania can go on. I've said that other things are bubbles for some time, Tesla being an obvious one. I also don't care to bet when Tesla's share price might collapse. That's the trouble with irrationality - it's folly to predict when it might end.

- the power you speak of is purely internal to the market. Real power is derived from the external, people with dollars. Major bitcoin hoarders can corner the market and control the supply but only influence demand. Unlike oil or corn, noone really needs what they've got.

Yes. Still, the now $530 billion dollar market-cap of bitcoin seems to fly in the face of your theory re liquidity.

 

[mauvais]

yes. Still, the now $530 billion dollar market-cap of bitcoin seems to fly in the face of your theory re liquidity.

Have a read of this, although it's a bit technical for my tastes:

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/12...when-bitcoins-market-cap-overtakes-world-gdp/

You may need to register but it's free.

 

[kabbes]

Yes. Still, the now $530 billion dollar market-cap of bitcoin seems to fly in the face of your theory re liquidity.

No it doesn't. Do you know what is meant by "liquidity"?

 

[free spirit]

By my rough calcs, Bitcoin is now a $315 billion worldwide ponzi scheme.

Is that big enough to have significant global economic repercussions when it implodes?

 

[mauvais]

Also that market cap figure reminds me of another long running Urban thread, the 'global financial implosion' one, which somewhere within it has some interesting figures on the value of the global derivatives market, 'worth' several times more than the GDP of the world. Not the most meaningful of metrics.

 

[camouflage]

No it doesn't. Do you know what is meant by "liquidity"?

A few years ago I sold my bitcoin to go on holiday (Tenerife, it was nice) and bought a new computer. It was very easy to find a buyer, I used an app while at the office xmas party as we needed to book the tickets the next day, took minutes. That was back when the market was under a billion. Still, it was a good holiday. Been meaning to start putting a fifty or so on it every month but I'm not so sure now because of those eco-concerns. One thing I'm not concerned about is that the market wouldn't have the readies when it comes to buying. Not really an answer to your question but there you go.