Who will win the 2024 US election?

[Yuwipi Woman]

If you don't mind me asking, how easy would it be in a republican area to just not count democrats' votes or alter the result? I would have thought if there was any vote fraud or suppression going on in either direction it would be in places where the result was already assumed to be a 'landslide', or in very small towns like the one that already announced its result?

In the past, I've worried about this. All of the poll workers are Republicans. They've previously put the ballots into a canvas portfolio, with only a zipper for security. This morning, it was a locked metal box, so I'm feeling a bit more secure. I'm sure it's still possible to tamper with though.

 

[frogwoman]

In the past, I've worried about this. All of the poll workers are Republicans. They've previously put the ballots into a canvas portfolio, with only a zipper for security. This morning, it was a locked metal box, so I'm feeling a bit more secure. I'm sure it's still possible to tamper with though.

also, is it true that in some states it's possible to find out as a matter of public record, whether someone voted or not?

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

also, is it true that in some states it's possible to find out as a matter of public record, whether someone voted or not?

Yes, but not who for. When I've voted by mail in the past, I could log in and see if my ballot was received by the election commission.

 

[kebabking]

Which is fucking scandalous.

I know - the wife's vote should be rubber stamped by her husband before it's allowed into the ballot box.

Then you wouldn't have to have any of this dishonesty....

 

[frogwoman]

In the past, I've worried about this. All of the poll workers are Republicans. They've previously put the ballots into a canvas portfolio, with only a zipper for security. This morning, it was a locked metal box, so I'm feeling a bit more secure. I'm sure it's still possible to tamper with though.

yeah in many rural areas here the poll workers are probably mostly or all Tories. I don't know how much difference that actually makes though in practice as the ballots often get sent somewhere central and all parties send monitors round to make sure the votes are being counted properly.

 

[MickiQ]

I've seen plenty of things on YouTube and on Twitter that have me optimistic for a comfortable Harris win, however it does occur to me that I am just as likely to be as self-selecting what I read and watch as the most deranged of the Trumpanzees.

 

[frogwoman]

Yes, but not who for. When I've voted by mail in the past, I could log in and see if my ballot was received by the election commission.

So eg a neighbour could find out if you voted or not? that doesn't sound particularly secret

 

[imposs1904]

Is that because of Trump's bad reputation in New York in general when he was a property developer?

That's interesting - there are still also quite a few Tories in London but it does get seen as a predominantly 'left wing' place.

I just think that they don't want to be challenged on it by their neighbours. People have a long memories about these things, and if they see a Trump sign in your yard you're going to be reminded of it years down the line.

I'm also convinced that not all Trump voters are kool aid Maga cult types. They know he's indefensible. Know that they can't actually convincingly excuse his bullshit and lack of character . . . but are going to vote for him anyway. They don't want to publically admit it or explain it.

 

[frogwoman]

I just think that they don't want to be challenged on it by their neighbours. People have a long memories about these things, and if they see a Trump sign in your yard you're going to be reminded of it years down the line.

I'm also convinced that not all Trump voters are kool aid Maga cult types. They know he's indefensible. Know that they can't actually convincingly excuse his bullshit and lack of character . . . but are going to vote for him anyway. They don't want to publically admit it or explain it.

Correct me if Im wrong but many places in NYC surely there wouldn't be gardens/yards because people would have apartments? A top floor apartment with a trump sign on its window would be hard to deface unless you had a drone or something and i imagine in some apartments if someone put a trump sign there, the other residents would have something to say about it?

 

[_Russ_]

I live in NYC. They exist in NYC.

What's noticeable in my neighborhood is that they there are far more election signs in people's yards for elections further down the ballot than there is for the Presidential election. There's a lot of Republicans where I live but I've only seen a handful of Trump/Vance signs in people's yards or gardens.

Again...republicans with a sense of shame?.......Im struggling here
Oh I get it fear, well thats good let the fuckers be afraid

 

[littlebabyjesus]

i remember in the last election there was some counties in places like Kentucky where it was 89% republican or something, and i remember thinking that Putin would be embarrassed at such numbers...lol. is it really the case that people there love Trump that much or that the democrats' votes aren't being counted, or that they aren't able to vote at all? or that there are very few people in some of these places and they're all republicans?

Doesn't seem so outlandish. Washington, DC, is even more heavily Democrat. Over 90% in the last four elections.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I just think that they don't want to be challenged on it by their neighbours. People have a long memories about these things, and if they see a Trump sign in your yard you're going to be reminded of it years down the line.

I'm also convinced that not all Trump voters are kool aid Maga cult types. They know he's indefensible. Know that they can't actually convincingly excuse his bullshit and lack of character . . . but are going to vote for him anyway. They don't want to publically admit it or explain it.

I tend to keep my mouth shut with a lot of people because there's always the odd loony who will do something to you just because they don't like your politics. I saw an article yesterday about a 70-year-old woman who was assaulted by a 17-year-old Trump supporter.

A17-year-old supporter of former President Donald Trump has been charged with battery after a 70-year-old woman was allegedly punched to the ground Saturday during a rally for Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida.

The teenager, wearing a Trump T-shirt, allegedly hit Kathleen Tomasko in the stomach, knocking her to the floor and leaving her with hip pain.

Tomasko, a longtime participant in political events, recounted that the blow caught her entirely off guard, telling local news website TCPalm: "I'm standing there, and people are moving. This kid just turned around and punched me. I don't know where he came from."

The alleged attacker's T-shirt featured an image of Trump raising his middle finger in front of an American flag, said TCPalm, and the teenager had been antagonizing people at the Stuart County rally with some friends, according to Tomasko.

MSN

I've had tires slashed in the past when I was attending an environmental meeting. There was a group of people with "burner" trucks driving around as a group harassing people who were attending. Now, when I go to something like that, I park a few blocks away.

 

[frogwoman]

Doesn't seem so outlandish. Washington, DC, is even more heavily Democrat. Over 90% in the last four elections.

i find that hard to believe as well given the number of arms industry representatives, lobbyists etc, that must end up living there?

 

[Sue]

yeah in many rural areas here the poll workers are probably mostly or all Tories. I don't know how much difference that actually makes though in practice as the ballots often get sent somewhere central and all parties send monitors round to make sure the votes are being counted properly.

They cross-check the number of ballot papers issued against the number in the locked ballot boxes so disappearing them is pretty impossible.

 

[imposs1904]

Correct me if Im wrong but many places in NYC surely there wouldn't be gardens/yards because people would have apartments? A top floor apartment with a trump sign on its window would be hard to deface unless you had a drone or something and i imagine in some apartments if someone put a trump sign there, the other residents would have something to say about it?

If it's a rented apartment, the landlord might have an issue with political signs in apartment windows.

Saying that, I live on the same block where an older couple have had 'Let's Go Brandon' flags in their apartment windows for the past three years.

I've also seen the woman of that couple loudly shout down a longstanding local homeless guy where it went on for minutes. She was trying to chase him around the block. She's not a 'shy Trump supporter' . . . she's not a shy scumbag, full stop.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Imho, it's more about the economy. Kentucky used to be a big coal producer but that's declined over the last few decades. Trump has made a lot of noise in the past about firing up the fossil fuel industries.

Also, there will always be those voters who swallow the kool aid in order to "own the libs"...

Most of the rural/metropolitan divide is driver by economic changes that have decimated rural communities. These areas are also deeply driven by a series of fundamentalist preachers, putting some pretty toxic ideas such as prosperity theology and the idea that god has blessed the rich, and cursed the poor.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

i find that hard to believe as well given the number of arms industry representatives, lobbyists etc, that must end up living there?

DC is an extreme example, but it's the pattern across the States. Even in so-called Red States in the South, you'll find big Democrat majorities in the cities and big Republican majorities in rural areas. And even in so-called Blue States, there are republican majorities in the rural areas. New York is a good example of that.

 

[krtek a houby]

Most of the rural/metropolitan divide is driver by economic changes that have decimated rural communities. These areas are also deeply driven by a series of fundamentalist preachers, putting some pretty toxic ideas such as prosperity theology and the idea that god has blessed the rich, and cursed the poor.

That god person should be done for repeated meddling

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

i find that hard to believe as well given the number of arms industry representatives, lobbyists etc, that must end up living there?

I think most of them end up in the richer areas of Maryland and Virginia. Very few people with "real money" choose to live in DC.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

That god person should be done for repeated meddling

Amen.

 

[Sue]

DC is an extreme example, but it's the pattern across the States. Even in so-called Red States in the South, you'll find big Democrat majorities in the cities and big Republican majorities in rural areas. And even in so-called Blue States, there are republican majorities in the rural areas. New York is a good example of that.

Yes, my boss is originally from upstate NY and apparently it's v Republican and v conservative. Which is a lot of the reason she moved to SF as soon as she could I think

 

[frogwoman]

Most of the rural/metropolitan divide is driver by economic changes that have decimated rural communities. These areas are also deeply driven by a series of fundamentalist preachers, putting some pretty toxic ideas such as prosperity theology and the idea that god has blessed the rich, and cursed the poor.

I never knew that prosperity theology was that popular in the US although much of the culture is so focused on making money that I guess it makes sense.

 

[imposs1904]

Interesting wee video. Apologies if it has already been posted:

 

[Yossarian]

i find that hard to believe as well given the number of arms industry representatives, lobbyists etc, that must end up living there?

I think a lot of the more conservative DC workers probably choose to live in the suburbs - DC itself isn't much bigger than some of the largest London boroughs

 

[petee]

I live in NYC. They exist in NYC.

What's noticeable in my neighborhood is that they there are far more election signs in people's yards for elections further down the ballot than there is for the Presidential election.

like propsition 1?
and i only noticed last week that there is a sentorial election

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I never knew that prosperity theology was that popular in the US although much of the culture is so focused on making money that I guess it makes sense.

There's a book that gives some of the history of evangelical religion in the US. It talks about the likes of Billy Sunday and Bill Graham and the way they've wedged themselves into our current politics:

https://www.amazon.com/Family-Secret-Fundamentalism-Heart-American/dp/0060560053/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1L4LAMDSEL6H8&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.jCThC2xQJu_Px6eZBxlXjJSYHDldTmvwGTHFyZ0GN8QiVTiu65xAEB5hrqSRUABnqdZhgNPuV1CFYI3vJ37Y8nQVMSFtK4FNkRJI9rQUjUHzFRfAZAD0oscDAjrykwD6Y8YNcKLaMxVtJqQhJrQn21mNCw-3AulgRaaWMI86mocLP5hQMyMa5YHF7VqTJp5YKJfHzTvuz045-VC7S7J9mLohf-nkBK0kJWSBy51vBDU.1eFzhMHG74zv1Z_yyUm7ulVjSzDMF-HpkqVAxJHzmiM&dib_tag=se&keywords=the+family+jeff+sharlet&qid=1730821280&sprefix=The+Family%2C+Jeff+%2Caps%2C300&sr=8-1

My apologies for the Amazon link.

 

[breadandcircuse]

I just think that they don't want to be challenged on it by their neighbours. People have a long memories about these things, and if they see a Trump sign in your yard you're going to be reminded of it years down the line.

I'm also convinced that not all Trump voters are kool aid Maga cult types. They know he's indefensible. Know that they can't actually convincingly excuse his bullshit and lack of character . . . but are going to vote for him anyway. They don't want to publically admit it or explain it.

I saw one being interviewed yesterday. He admitted who he was voting for, but actually called him out for the shit he is, basically admitting how awful he is. But Kamala's a socialist, so you know............ Why are these people so stupid? They all need lessons in politics. The thing gets in every possible term that he can when slagging off the Dems, even though they are opposites of each other, and none bear any resemblance to the truth.

 

[Nylock]

I'm trying to remember how the hanging chads thing played out. It went on for a couple of weeks through various courts and there were, I think, some 'orderly' street protests. This won't be orderly.

ahem
Brooks Brothers Riot

yeah - but think it could potentailly much worse this time around. Youd hope whatever the US equivalent of the eletoral commision and law enforcment have been planning for such an eventuality - but in states/counties where MAGAites are in positions of power this may well be hampered - or worse ... Its like a grim echo of 1930s germany where the nazis used their street presence and ilfiltration of civic bodies to intimidate voters and sabotage and obstruct the opposition parties - and had been allowed to become too strong for the state to stamp them out.

I saw a clip last night where the PA Secretary of State held a press conference directed at anyone thinking of interfering with the election. The theme was "Fuck around and Find out" -and he actually did say "Eff around and find out". He looked pretty pissed off doing the conference tbf. I don't think he's messing around either...

E2A, here's a clip of the DA in question:

 

[Nylock]

Most of the rural/metropolitan divide is driver by economic changes that have decimated rural communities. These areas are also deeply driven by a series of fundamentalist preachers, putting some pretty toxic ideas such as prosperity theology and the idea that god has blessed the rich, and cursed the poor.

Considering how antithetical to the teachings of christ that prosperity gospel bullshit is, I'm surprised the regular churches have not denounced it as Heresy.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Considering how antithetical to the teachings of christ that prosperity gospel bullshit is, I'm surprised the regular churches have not denounced it as Heresy.

There's a lot that is heretical about American christianity, none of which these people have really called out. Then, they blame "woke culture" for why churches are becoming less and less relevant. They should be looking in the mirror instead.