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Who will win the 2024 US election?

Who will win?


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The first result is in, from a wobble-top town called Dixville Notch, that has just 6 voters, all votes were in within 15 minutes of the poll opening, so they've been able to declare - 3 for Harris / 3 for Trump.

I kid you not. :D



The hi-tech scoreboard -

View attachment 449786
Extra thought, if I lived there, I'd definitely be giving it the old "Vote at midnight? But that's slippers and cocoa time. And I'm a bit knackered and need a lie in. I'll pop in around midday tomorrow if that's alright" (to spoil my ballot obvs) :thumbs:
 
I'm afraid I'm far less sanguine about what the polling says - because I'm less convinced than ever that the votes matter.

I'm afraid I take the view that radicalised MAGA activist penetration of the district & state electoral system is such that the votes in those places just don't matter, that all that matters is who runs the elections, and who counts the votes, and who decides what those votes mean.

I'm not particularly convinced that who wins the election is relevant to the question of who is going to be president come the end of January.
You probably know more about this than me, but is it that easy to rig votes, even in Republican controlled areas? Who is counting them? Don't both parties have to send observers at the count?
 
You probably know more about this than me, but is it that easy to rig votes, even in Republican controlled areas? Who is counting them? Don't both parties have to send observers at the count?

It's not what the votes are, or what you can prove, or what the other guy can prove eventually, it's what you can state with conviction for long enough to get your guy over the line.
 
The first result is in, from a wobble-top town called Dixville Notch, that has just 6 voters, all votes were in within 15 minutes of the poll opening, so they've been able to declare - 3 for Harris / 3 for Trump.

I kid you not. :D



The hi-tech scoreboard -

View attachment 449786
That is an example of an undemocratic process. Declarations as an election proceeds can influence the final result. Why is there one box for Stein and Oliver, who are from the Green Party and the Libertarian Party?
 
It's not what the votes are, or what you can prove, or what the other guy can prove eventually, it's what you can state with conviction for long enough to get your guy over the line.
are they really able to do this though? I don't really know how election night works there but are there such things as election observers from each party watching that no votes get mislaid etc?
 
That is an example of an undemocratic process. Declarations as an election proceeds can influence the final result. Why is there one box for Stein and Oliver, who are from the Green Party and the Libertarian Party?
I agree. Seems really weird.
 
It's not what the votes are, or what you can prove, or what the other guy can prove eventually, it's what you can state with conviction for long enough to get your guy over the line.
Historically, this has only applied to genuinely tight contests, though. The actual stolen election was 2000. Gore won that. Bush's brother delivered Florida through dishonest means and eventually the Dems gave up the legal challenge. But if it hadn't been genuinely tight, that wouldn't have worked.
 
Historically, this has only applied to genuinely tight contests, though. The actual stolen election was 2000. Gore won that. Bush's brother delivered Florida through dishonest means and eventually the Dems gave up the legal challenge. But if it hadn't been genuinely tight, that wouldn't have worked.
1960 as well ;)
 
That is an example of an undemocratic process. Declarations as an election proceeds can influence the final result. Why is there one box for Stein and Oliver, who are from the Green Party and the Libertarian Party?

I guess, in this case, a blind eye is turned to it because there's only 6 voters, although there used to be 10, so is not going to influence the final result.
 
I guess, in this case, a blind eye is turned to it because there's only 6 voters, although there used to be 10, so is not going to influence the final result.
naah, declarations are frequently made while others are still voting. It's far from unheard of for California & Alaska to still be voting after the winner has been declared.
 
AS well as possible intimidation through the day - I fear the interfearence and general shit housery will start as soon as the polls close - with bullshit accustaions and attempts to stop counts. Some might be planned - but also potentailly sponansous, chaotic aggro from the MAGAites.
 
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AS well as possible intimidation through the day - I fear the interfearence and general shit housery will start as soon as the polls close - with bullshit accustaions and attempts to stop counts. Some might be planned - but also potentailly sponansous, chaotic aggro from the MAGArites.
I'm trying to remember how the hanging chads thing played out. It went on for a couple of weeks through various courts and there were, I think, some 'orderly' street protests. This won't be orderly. :(
 
I'm trying to remember how the hanging chads thing played out. It went on for a couple of weeks through various courts and there were, I think, some 'orderly' street protests. This won't be orderly. :(
They were far too polite and they gave up far too quickly. Ironically enough, they gave up 'to protect the system'.

One thing we get right here. Paper, pencil and a big box plus thousands of unpaid observers is a pretty good way to do it. An example of a situation where the lower the tech, the more transparent everything is.
 
I guess, in this case, a blind eye is turned to it because there's only 6 voters, although there used to be 10, so is not going to influence the final result.
It is clear that there is no law against this, and it will continue. The East Coast states will declare their results while the polls are still open on the West Coast.
 
AS well as possible intimidation through the day - I fear the interfearence and general shit housery will start as soon as the polls close - with bullshit accustaions and attempts to stop counts. Some might be planned - but also potentailly sponansous, chaotic aggro from the MAGArites.
There was a lot of that in 2020 IIRC
naah, declarations are frequently made while others are still voting. It's far from unheard of for California & Alaska to still be voting after the winner has been declared.
Given their winner takes all system it doesn't truly matter as much as you might think, if 80% of the votes in a state have been counted and 60% of them are for Candidate X then it doesn't matter how uncounted votes there are for Candidate Y since it can't change the result. Candidate X gets the electoral college votes.
IIRC back in 2020 Trump was claiming he had won PA either though they hadn't reached the threshold yet.
 
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