Who will win the 2024 US election?

[Cloo]

I just don't fucking know. I guess all I do know is that a clear and straightforward Harris win is not one of the options. A murky (entirely because of GOP) and queasy outcome in her favour is a possibility, as is a legitimate but horrifying slight edge in by Trump.

 

[Sue]

According to Newsnight just now, we could have a fair idea of the winner as early as Wednesday lunchtime UK time. (Obviously depends on how close it is in key states but I'm a bit surprised it could be that early.)

Eta And what a fucker Santorum is. I mean we did know this but I at least had managed to forget he'd ever existed.

 

[belboid]

According to Newsnight just now, we could have a fair idea of the winner as early as Wednesday lunchtime UK time. (Obviously depends on how close it is in key states but I'm a bit surprised it could be that early.)

Arizona announced its result within six hours of the polls closing last time. If it isn’t as neck and neck as the polls are saying (& I suspect it isn’t, it’s just the pollsters being cowardly) then we could have a strong idea of the result before breakfast!

 

[Sue]

Arizona announced its result within six hours of the polls closing last time. If it isn’t as neck and neck as the polls are saying (& I suspect it isn’t, it’s just the pollsters being cowardly) then we could have a strong idea of the result before breakfast!

I need some coffee first!

So, which way do you think it'll go?

(My American colleagues reckon Arizonans (sp) are weird. Apparently they don't change their clocks -- some court ruled they had to but they all just ignored it or something.)

 

[Wilf]

There'll be exit polls for indiv states or perhaps counties (districts even) as soon as the polls close. So 3 am onwards over here, for the Eastern seaboard?

 

[Nine Bob Note]

Still not sure how I'm spending my election night yet. On hols so I can stay up as late as I like, offering my insightful commentary, but I'm enjoying my book so I may just lie in bed eating Haribo and dip between that and Sky News.

 

[2hats]

(My American colleagues reckon Arizonans (sp) are weird. Apparently they don't change their clocks -- some court ruled they had to but they all just ignored it or something.)

Except the Navajo Nation (partly inside AZ) do observe savings time.

Hawaii and the US island territories don't observe savings time. Until 2006 some counties in Indiana didn't either.

 

[belboid]

There'll be exit polls for indiv states or perhaps counties (districts even) as soon as the polls close. So 3 am onwards over here, for the Eastern seaboard?

can't we say east coast? the yanks say 'seaboard' because they think it sounds grander. or something.

Also, polls close at either 8 or 9pm over there, so the very first announcements should start shortly after 1.

 

[petee]

last-minute GOP legal bullshittery here

Democracy Docket

The leading progressive platform for information, analysis and opinion about voting rights, elections and democracy.

www.democracydocket.com

more of it

2024 Is Already The Most Litigated Election On Record

Read more here.

www.democracydocket.com

 

[belboid]

I need some coffee first!

So, which way do you think it'll go?

I have absolutely no idea, beyond it not being as close as currently predicted. I'm more hopeful of a Harris win than I was a week ago, if absolutely forced to choose I would say her, but I wouldn't be at all surprised by Trump winning all, or all but one, of the swing states.

(My American colleagues reckon Arizonans (sp) are weird. Apparently they don't change their clocks -- some court ruled they had to but they all just ignored it or something.)

Time Bandits ahoy!

 

[bcuster]

Final polls show harris in solid positions

Harris or Trump? What the polls are saying a day before the 2024 election

The final batch of major national polls and swing state surveys shows the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is as tight as it's ever been.

www.yahoo.com

 

[redsquirrel]

I have absolutely no idea, beyond it not being as close as currently predicted. I'm more hopeful of a Harris win than I was a week ago, if absolutely forced to choose I would say her, but I wouldn't be at all surprised by Trump winning all, or all but one, of the swing states.

TBF that is what most models seem to be predicting - a wide, flat distribution of results that are centred around a toss-up. The single most likely Trump or Harris win's according to the most recent 538 simulations have them win by ~90 EC votes.