When do you think lockdown restrictions are going to end in England

[thismoment]

I think that the government is very stubborn, the use of language such as “irreversible” suggests to me that they’ll stick to the June date.

 

[elbows]

Sturgeon delivered, by her own admission, a mixed bag. Glasgow is being moved down a level, some places are going ahead with June 7th move down a level, but a whole bunch of places are having the easing paused for now and will remain at level 2.

The new variant (and its new name delta) was mentioned. Sturgeon also said that so far they think vaccines etc mean that when it comes to vital factors such as hospital burden, perentage of cases that may be hospitalised is more like 5% than the old estimate of 10%. Thats quite a useful number, even though I dont expect it to be spot on, because it gives people some indication of how much vaccines have achieved so far, but also that this mission is far from over. And like much ele that she said, its all subject to monitoring to see if the picture changes again as a result of the new variant.

Her rhetoric also offered some interesting framing in terms of healthcare and this virus. She started to talk about how its important not just to avoid the health servie being overwhelmed by Covid cases, but to also keep things in a state where the normal, non-covid business of the NHS does not need to be suspended in the way it was during previous waves. This is a sensible point that they will probably rely on when facing complaints from those who have a more recklesss approach to pandemic management.

The Scottish government is much better at public communication during this pandemic, and slightly better when it comes to actual measures and their timing. So far they have still failed to go as far as I would recommend, they dont get full marks for balance, preventing deaths etc. Whether their actions during this period also end up being consistent with that opinion of mine remains to be seen. They offer clues as to the minimum the UK government should be thinking of doing, and not doing, in June, but obviously we well know by now that the instincts and priorities of Johnson etc are shit.

Finally I would like to move to Scotland due to the way Sturgeon pronounces doses.

 

[elbows]

UK government are unsurprisingly still sticking to the 'havent seen anything in the data' approach to delaying the easing timetable.

 

[existentialist]

UK government are unsurprisingly still sticking to the 'havent seen anything in the data' approach to delaying the easing timetable.

It's amazing what you can't see if you don't look...

 

[cupid_stunt]

UK government are unsurprisingly still sticking to the 'havent seen anything in the data' approach to delaying the easing timetable.

The reports I've seen are about a number 10 spokesman just re-quoting what Johnson said last Thursday, so basically no update, which isn't surprising, considering he said we would just have to wait & see.

 

[Pickman's model]

UK government are unsurprisingly still sticking to the 'havent seen anything in the data' approach to delaying the easing timetable.

it doesn't matter if there is anything in the data, the only cabinet minister with a hope in hell of understanding the science is dr therese coffey, and they don't let her anywhere near the data

 

[Pickman's model]

The reports I've seen are about a number 10 spokesman just re-quoting what Johnson said last Thursday, so basically no update, which isn't surprising, considering he said we would just have to wait & see.

and johnson last thursday was quoting some other government mouthpiece from the week before

 

[Teaboy]

UK government are unsurprisingly still sticking to the 'havent seen anything in the data' approach to delaying the easing timetable.

Yeah, that phrase is already sounding past its use by date. There is obviously stuff there in the data so they're either being wilfully blind or they are just commenting specifically on small and targeted areas of the data.

 

[Badgers]

 

[elbows]

More of the same from Johnson, with a slight acknowledgement of reality at the end:

Prime Minister Boris Johnson says there is "nothing in the data at the moment that means we cannot go ahead with step four" of his roadmap for lifting coronavirus restrictions.

"But we've got to be so cautious," he says, with infection rates rising.

"We always knew that was going to happen," the prime minister says.

"What we need to work out is to what extent the vaccination programme has protected enough of us, particularly the elderly and vulnerable, against a new surge, and there I'm afraid the data is still ambiguous.

"The best the scientists can say at the moment is we just need to give it a little bit longer."

From 13:33 entry of BBC live updates page: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57326876

 

[elbows]

COVID-19: What could happen on 21 June if the PM decides it's not safe to end restrictions? Here are the options

The prime minister says he is ruling nothing out as Indian variant cases rise just weeks after restrictions were eased.

news.sky.com

Features a mix of expert opinion including:

"If you open everything up, you'll see a bigger surge, then the government will panic and shut everything down again," he said.

At some point you'll have to open up but that should happen when at least 70% of the population have had two doses.

He said the government said four tests have to be passed to allow each stage of the lockdown to be eased, including that a new variant should not cause concern that it would change the strategy.

"It is abundantly clear that this test has not been met at present," he said.

"I would be very worried about going ahead with plans to unlock in June."

The virologist said it is a "worryingly common misconception" that younger people do not become seriously unwell from COVID, and with the Indian variant being more transmissible more people could be hospitalised, putting "tremendous pressure on the NHS".

He said the government should review the current restrictions so the vaccination schedule lines up with falling cases, as Israel did.

 

[elbows]

Although the government are still sticking to their line, some additional part about seeing signals is being tacked onto it. Whether this is preparation to change approach, or just a dull attempt to pretend their line has some connection to basic reality, remains to be seen.

Jenrick:

"We're reviewing the data," says Jenrick. "There are some signals that we're seeing within it. But there's nothing at the moment that suggests that we won't be able to move forward with that."

Fromt he 9:38 entry of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57355091

 

[cupid_stunt]

Has anyone changed their minds?

If so, change your vote.

 

[Teaboy]

I didn't vote in this but I've not changed my mind since the end of February when the timetable was announced. The June date always looked fantastical and frankly quite bizarre. As the wording was so vague there is clearly a lot of wriggle room but I never believed we will be largely back to normal by the end of June and I don't now.

What I would like to see as a minimum is an extension of the existing regulations to bring the timetable closer into line with vaccination program, which is what the should have been originally.

There is probably some tinkering they can do with the rules as the situation develops but in general there still should be regulations around mixing of household in doors.

 

[elbows]

I havent voted because the term lockdown means different things to different people, and I believe in data not dates, and because even beyond this next wave there are considerable unknowns about future immunity, variants etc.

 

[Elpenor]

I voted for August, but I don’t think the grand plan will be delayed although it clearly should be.

 

[Pickman's model]

Has anyone changed their minds?

If so, change your vote.

I voted never and have seen nothing yet to change my mind

 

[elbows]

I voted never and have seen nothing yet to change my mind

That might be right if we replace end of lockdown with 'go back to the old normal'. Even if a lot of stuff eventually slides back towards the old ways, the pandemic probably was neoliberalisms last gasp.

 

[Pickman's model]

That might be right if we replace end of lockdown with 'go back to the old normal'. Even if a lot of stuff eventually slides back towards the old ways, the pandemic probably was neoliberalisms last gasp.

It'll take us all with it

 

[existentialist]

I voted for August, but I don’t think the grand plan will be delayed although it clearly should be.

I've a feeling that, by August (well, given Johnson, probably September) we'll be back into the next lockdown-necessary type situation. Not that this will result in an actual lockdown.

 

[Riklet]

Im pretty certain theyll delay it.

And obviously things will not go back to normal normal... total freedom etc. this is just a loony Tory myth. things will be different. and while there is tons of covid around and tons of daft behaviour, tons of unclear rubbish messaging and ambiguity... well im not confident things will keep getting more normal.

I reckon they might lift a lot more restrictions in late July or August at any case, and will probably have to reimpose them again yada yada.

 

[William of Walworth]

Im pretty certain theyll delay it.

And obviously things will not go back to normal normal... total freedom etc. this is just a loony Tory myth. things will be different. and while there is tons of covid around and tons of daft behaviour, tons of unclear rubbish messaging and ambiguity... well im not confident things will keep getting more normal.

I reckon they might lift a lot more restrictions in late July or August at any case, and will probably have to reimpose them again yada yada.

Only just voted today -- I'm new to this thread because of lots of recent computer issues -- but I voted along the lines of this makes-sense post.

That is : Not before August 2021 (with 'not before the 1st of August!' in my struggle to stay very slightly optimistic!! ).