When do you think lockdown restrictions are going to end in England

[Teaboy]

Even if they postpone 21/6, we'll still, presumably, remain at the current level of restrictions. So, assuming a third wave is actually happening, it's going to continue unless they roll back or even lockdown anew.

Of course all this is 'if' and 'maybe', but it's clear, IMO, we've opened too much too quickly. Again.

Its all about buying time for the vaccination program. Eradication has never been part of the plan and likely won't ever be. The real mistake was made a long time ago in not properly securing the borders. If the Indian variant (gamma?) had been delayed by a month or two from hitting our shores then the vaccination program would have been more advanced.

By extending the current restrictions it may be possible to bring the unlocking program in line with the vaccination program and without the need for rolling back on what we currently have. The whole thing just seems so precarious.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

If deaths are down to single figures a day then I don't think there's anything sinister (or a failure to understand risk) about people accepting that tbh. It would be more about incorporating Covid into the attitudes to risk we take every day anyway. It's of a similar magnitude to the number of deaths caused by car crashes for example but most of us take that as acceptable risk.

For me personally at that level I'd certainly be happy to return to something like normal. The issue though is that they don't stay there do they, they escalate rapidly.

 

[Supine]

Cases are rising exponentially at the moment based on the current restrictions. Death rates might be low now but due to lag you wouldn’t expect to see an increase for a number of weeks.

The big unknown is how much of the link between cases and deaths is broken by vaccines. Removing all rules in June is a massive gamble if the link isn’t understood. The NHS may not get swamped with older vaccinated people but it could very well be challenged by huge numbers of younger people. The government have a big decision to make and I have no faith they will make the right one.

And this will all be happening during the summer. Seasonality means things will get worse again as we go into autumn

 

[cupid_stunt]

If deaths are down to single figures a day then I don't think there's anything sinister (or a failure to understand risk) about people accepting that tbh. It would be more about incorporating Covid into the attitudes to risk we take every day anyway. It's of a similar magnitude to the number of deaths caused by car crashes for example but most of us take that as acceptable risk.

For me personally at that level I'd certainly be happy to return to something like normal. The issue though is that they don't stay there do they, they escalate rapidly.

It's not just about deaths, they tend to follow some weeks after an increase in cases.

Week-on-week, new cases are up 28.8%, and that will result in more cases of 'long covid', hospital admissions are up 23.2%, which will result in more deaths.

 

[LDC]

The big unknown is how much of the link between cases and deaths is broken by vaccines. Removing all rules in June is a massive gamble if the link isn’t understood. The NHS may not get swamped with older vaccinated people but it could very well be challenged by huge numbers of younger people.

Yeah, I mentioned somewhere else that even if deaths stay pretty low, if hospitalizations and people that need some kind of assessment and maybe treatment out of hospital still significantly rise then the NHS could very easily grind to a halt given that some sections of it are near that now. And people will die or get sicker with other non-covid problems because of that.

 

[rubbershoes]

Like we did in December/January?

The number of people vaccinated should mean we don't return to those dark days

 

[LDC]

The number of people vaccinated should mean we don't return to those dark days

Have you seen the LSHTM modelling elbows posted though?

 

[xenon]

e

Even if they postpone 21/6, we'll still, presumably, remain at the current level of restrictions. So, assuming a third wave is actually happening, it's going to continue unless they roll back or even lockdown anew.

Of course all this is 'if' and 'maybe', but it's clear, IMO, we've opened too much too quickly. Again.

Is it clear though? Indoor hospitality has only been open for 2 weeks. These new cases, are they linked to that. Or rather I suspect the same as last time, a more transmissible strane and transmission in the home, in work places where people can't socially distance.

Holding off on the June 21st changes to get more people vaccinated seems sensible. I heard estimated though it would take to October to fully vaccinate the entire adult population. But going back to a January level lock down, in the summer... That's not gonna fly unles things go very wrong. Hundreds of deaths a day wrong. Which is a possibility but hoepfully only a remote one.

 

[xenon]

I guess that MickiQ has not lost anyone or any work. Stats...

Bit harsh. He's right, as with all sorts of other activities, at some point there will be a level of daily deaths that is deemed tollaberable if the NHS isn't overwelmed.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Just delay until the schools break up. An extra month to keep an eye on the data, an extra month to get more people vaccinated. This is obvious, surely?

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

 

[elbows]

Things are a bit shitty but nothing like the second wave.

Not sure what gives you that impression - waves always start in a small, barely noticeable way. Its only later that we either see explosive growth that involves levels of hospitalisations that force governments to act, or not.

I find it somewhat hard to engage with the basic question this thread deals with because I'd have to break it down into multiple different things:

1 ) First the government still really hates things that rub their crap sense of our culture the wrong way, such as face masks being normal. This summer they were hoping to dump the final rules and recommendations on that front, put an end to masks and basic distancing rules that impede things like venue capacity. A return to as much 'normal' as we are likely to get, very close to the old normal with only some minor differences to do with attitudes towards going to work when sick, and a need for ongoing vaccination programmes.

2) Pressing ahead with the final main unlocking step or not.

3) Whether things get so bad that other, substantial measures need to be reimposed to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed.

1 was always somewhat detached from reality, and the first thing the government would have to limit their ambitions on. This is the thing they were supposed to have a review of, the results of which were due to be announced right about now. But in May they conceded that they would quite possibly have to delay that review.

2 and 3 will ultimately be driven by data and reality. But we've seen in the past that government try to do as little as possible, as late as possible, until key hospital data leaves them with little choice but to act.

 

[Badgers]

Not sure what gives you that impression

Possibly my management of three Covid Testing Centres and daily meetings with council.

 

[elbows]

Possibly my management of three Covid Testing Centres and daily meetings with council.

Still makes no sense to me. All waves start somewhere, and the initial bits arent likely to resemble the situation seen at a specific testing centre during a more dramatic part of a wave.

We are very much at the stage of the wave where there is a large degree of variation in different parts of the country, and where in many places things have barely gotten started. What part of the second wave are you comparing the current situation in your area to?

 

[Badgers]

Still makes no sense to me. All waves start somewhere, and the initial bits arent likely to resemble the situation seen at a specific testing centre during a more dramatic part of a wave.

We are very much at the stage of the wave where there is a large degree of variation in different parts of the country, and where in many places things have barely gotten started. What part of the second wave are you comparing the current situation in your area to?

Stats

 

[elbows]

Also compare the second wave to the first. For quite a long period of time, the second wave appeared to be happening in slow motion compared to the first wave, but an explosive stage was still reached eventually.

One of the reasons the second wave seemed to be happening in slow motion compared to the first is that we only saw the very tip of the iceberg for ages in the buildup to the first wave, so community spread was barely even noticed until things reached the explosive stage of growth.

The second wave also had more obvious geographical variations, things started to heat up in some places much earlier than others.

The second wave did not initially feature a new variant that was much more transmissible, that side of things only became clear and had a big impact months later.

 

[elbows]

Stats

Stats vary over time, so thats not a helpful answer. The stats for the start of August 2020 were different to the stats that started to emerge by mid August. By early September the stats were so transformed that the testing system quickly became unable to cope with demand, and the level of demand was itself a huge clue that a wave was heating up.

Number of testing sites and other ways to pick up a test, forms of testing available and peoples attitudes towards bothering getting tested are also expected to change over time. Plus the vaccine era changes not just attitudes, but the detail of where we first expect community spread to be detected, and what symptoms people experience which affects their guesses about what illness they've picked up. In the past it often showed up in younger age groups first, and would expect that to be even more the case in the vaccine era.

 

[elbows]

In other words, claims about whether this is like the second wave or not should be based on how the stats evolve during June at the earliest, unless you are in a hotspot location that has already had problems. There are plenty of locations that have only just shown an increase and thats so recent that it could still be written off as a blip. There may be many places that have shown no increase at all in the case stats yet. This gives me pretty much no clues, and is just a sign that its a waiting game at this point.

I've heard at least one expert say that this wave may evolve more slowly than previous waves, due to the impact of vaccination. I dont know if that will actually end up being the case, because the impact of vaccines will be balanced against the extent to which measures have been relaxed, people have dropped their guard and returned to more normal behaviours, and the transmissiveness of the new dominant variant of the virus.

 

[Badgers]

, unless you are in a hotspot location that has already had problems

I am

 

[Pickman's model]

In other words, claims about whether this is like the second wave or not should be based on how the stats evolve during June at the earliest, unless you are in a hotspot location that has already had problems. There are plenty of locations that have only just shown an increase and thats so recent that it could still be written off as a blip. There may be many places that have shown no increase at all in the case stats yet. This gives me pretty much no clues, and is just a sign that its a waiting game at this point.

I've heard at least one expert say that this wave may evolve more slowly than previous waves, due to the impact of vaccination. I dont know if that will actually end up being the case, because the impact of vaccines will be balanced against the extent to which measures have been relaxed, people have dropped their guard and returned to more normal behaviours, and the transmissiveness of the new dominant variant of the virus.

when plenty of places simultaneously show an increase that doesn't sound so much like a blip

 

[elbows]

I am

In that case I feel an even greater need to try to pin down which stage of the second wave you are comparing things to. Sorry for all the questioning, but the detail matters and you've clearly seen quite a lot of detail. I dont want to badger you into sharing more detail than you are comfortable with, but I am interested in how things will evolve this time compared to last time.

 

[cupid_stunt]

when plenty of places simultaneously show an increase that doesn't sound so much like a blip

I fucking hope it's a blip around here, where we've had a 2600% increase in 7-days.

 

[elbows]

when plenty of places simultaneously show an increase that doesn't sound so much like a blip

Yeah I'm just describing what some current case stats look like if I only take into account one particular locations numbers at this time.

For example parts of my town engaged in recent surge testing due to a handful of delta variant (new easy name for Indian variant B.1.617.2) cases being detected. This additional testing did not initially result in a notable increase in daily figures, but now there are a couple of days figures which seem to show growth in cases. They still only resemble a blip in the graph right now, and I'll have to wait some more days to see if that changes into a more obvious trend.

 

[Orang Utan]

Who knows? It’s just guesswork innit

 

[SpookyFrank]

That does seem to be true doesn't it, places which didn't dither on for months because they love Freedom so much and wanted to keep the cash circulating have had less of an economic disaster.

Yes the deaths vs economy thing has always been bullshit.

 

[Badgers]

In that case I feel an even greater need to try to pin down which stage of the second wave you are comparing things to. Sorry for all the questioning, but the detail matters and you've clearly seen quite a lot of detail. I dont want to badger you into sharing more detail than you are comfortable with, but I am interested in how things will evolve this time compared to last time.

Am not trying to outstat you elbows You have been a solid source of knowledge throughout this shit

My centres are in Luton/Bedfordshire. Footfall has dropped massively since the second wave so comparisons are tricky.

We did have a month (April) with virtually no positive tests. This month we have been seeing 5-10 a week. Statically we are massively up on April but actually numbers are down.

 

[lazythursday]

Here in the north the map of doom has been developing in ways extremely reminiscent of the previous waves, clearly a third wave is happening. At the moment I am socialising as much as possible because it will clearly hit my area in the next few weeks (am surrounded by hotspots) and I don't think it will feel very safe by June 21 regardless of what the regulations are. The only question is whether all these cases are going to lead to the same level of death this time or not given the vaccination rate - I guess we'll see because I don't think the government will pause the unocking - though perhaps they will keep one or two token things like masks in shops / public transport.

 

[elbows]

Am not trying to outstat you elbows You have been a solid source of knowledge throughout this shit

My centres are in Luton/Bedfordshire. Footfall has dropped massively since the second wave so comparisons are tricky.

We did have a month (April) with virtually no positive tests. This month we have been seeing 5-10 a week. Statically we are massively up on April but actually numbers are down.

Cheers. I dont want to compete on this either, and I certainly dont want to override your actual experience from the front lines! I just want to get into particular details.

Certainly I have been somewhat downplaying some of the 'rolling average percentage increases' that some people are reporting on, because those in part reflect just how low a lot of the numbers had fallen before recently bouncing back a little. These rolling averages are still useful in their ability to tell us that the situation is changing, its just that the rises in percentage terms are a bit dramatic due to starting from a very low base due to low number of positive cases etc until very recently.

And I've started looking at the heatmaps which show cases by age, both on the dashboard and in regional documents at Coronavirus cases by local authority: epidemiological data, 26 May 2021

There is a large degree of variation between different places. Its no surprise that the hotspots we've heard most about on the news how the most alarming of these graphs so far, but others are starting to follow suite. I expect I will start posting specific examples more this month, but choosing which ones to feature isnt always easy.

Here are a few for now:

 

[kropotkin]

21st June.
I don't think there will be a third wave necessitating a proper lockdown in the winter either.
This is unless either
1/ vaccine supply problems causing slowdown of vaccinating under 50s
2/ new variant causing vaccine evasion (possible)
3/ those under 50 refusing vaccination to a significant degree

 

[elbows]

May get some clues from Scotlands imminent decision:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57313078

We are going to be turning our attention to the Scottish Parliament in the next few minutes when the first minister is expected to announce whether the country can further ease its lockdown restrictions.

Nicola Sturgeon will tell MSPs at Holyrood whether she has deemed it safe to move to level one restrictions as planned on 7 June.

I will tune into the stream: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-57315163