existentialist
Things Done
I think the government has repeatedly - and inadvisedly - seen schools opening as a hill they want to die on. Hence the late and abrupt U-turn in January.
When do you think lockdown restrictions are going to end in England
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SpookyFrank
Float like a caterpillar, sting like a tree
Mid July
SpookyFrank
Float like a caterpillar, sting like a tree
You're coming at this like a sensible person. Sensible people are not making these decisions.
SpookyFrank
Float like a caterpillar, sting like a tree
As far as I know the DfE has not yet issued guidance to the effect that year group bubbles in schools can be relaxed. But I know for a fact many schools have abandoned such restrictions already.
Poot
My wife thinks I work too hard
I think it will go ahead on 21st June because hubris + capitalism. Then there will be another wave. Then, somehow that Tory shit will be more popular than ever, then eventually something will happen that will mean we go back into lockdown but it will definitely be someone else's fault, and, quick! Look over there! It's a scientist's fault. For some reason.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
It's on a knife edge IMO, the data over the last week isn't good, but it could level off over this & next week, although I don't expect that to happen, in which case the argument for delaying the June unlocking becomes so much clearer.
It does seem like pressure is growing to delay, with several experts, some of which are government advisers, suggesting or pushing for a delay, which will make it difficult for the government to say they are following the science, if the data goes the way I expect. The media attention to these calls does give the impression that we are being made ready to expect there's likely to be a delay too.
As they have always said they want each stage of unlocking to be irreversible, and depending on the data getting worst, it would be totally logical to delay until at least the schools break-up for summer, in the hope of avoiding having to reverse it, or even having to reverse on the May unlocking. By that time all adults wanting a jab would have their first jab, and somewhere around 75% would probably have had their second one.
Plus they have an excuse/cover for a delay, in the form of the Indian variant, which wasn't around when the roadmap was published, and therefore isn't reflected in the plan.
Finally, the NHS is already under extreme pressure, as they start to tackle the backlog of non-covid cases, so even a fairly small increase in covid cases will cause major problems, something they will want to avoid.
I think this week will see the chances of a delay tipping over the 50% mark, my gut feeling is they will delay for those few weeks, but I wouldn't be surprised it they don't.
The bigger question is, would a delay be enough, or could we face going back to the stage before the May unlocking.
It does seem like pressure is growing to delay, with several experts, some of which are government advisers, suggesting or pushing for a delay, which will make it difficult for the government to say they are following the science, if the data goes the way I expect. The media attention to these calls does give the impression that we are being made ready to expect there's likely to be a delay too.
As they have always said they want each stage of unlocking to be irreversible, and depending on the data getting worst, it would be totally logical to delay until at least the schools break-up for summer, in the hope of avoiding having to reverse it, or even having to reverse on the May unlocking. By that time all adults wanting a jab would have their first jab, and somewhere around 75% would probably have had their second one.
Plus they have an excuse/cover for a delay, in the form of the Indian variant, which wasn't around when the roadmap was published, and therefore isn't reflected in the plan.
Finally, the NHS is already under extreme pressure, as they start to tackle the backlog of non-covid cases, so even a fairly small increase in covid cases will cause major problems, something they will want to avoid.
I think this week will see the chances of a delay tipping over the 50% mark, my gut feeling is they will delay for those few weeks, but I wouldn't be surprised it they don't.
The bigger question is, would a delay be enough, or could we face going back to the stage before the May unlocking.
Things are a bit shitty but nothing like the second wave.
Issue is that removing restrictions on 21/06 then having to reimpose them will go down worse than extending them. Businesses and people have had to change their set up around this shit, if things are shuffled about again there will be grief and cost.
Issue is that removing restrictions on 21/06 then having to reimpose them will go down worse than extending them. Businesses and people have had to change their set up around this shit, if things are shuffled about again there will be grief and cost.
SpookyFrank
Float like a caterpillar, sting like a tree
And the economic costs will be greater the longer they delay any changes.
bimble
floofy
That does seem to be true doesn't it, places which didn't dither on for months because they love Freedom so much and wanted to keep the cash circulating have had less of an economic disaster.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I've only just checked the covid news for today, and as per my post above, you can see the pressure growing even more...
BBC live coverage at 8:30.
Metro
The scientists, particularly whose involved in advising the government, do seem to have decided they are going to speak out more, and pile on the pressure, than I remember them doing before.
BBC live coverage at 8:30.
Metro
The scientists, particularly whose involved in advising the government, do seem to have decided they are going to speak out more, and pile on the pressure, than I remember them doing before.
existentialist
Things Done
They remember what happened last time they got ignored...
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Exactly.
You had to be following it very closely to know they ignored SAGE advice back in September, the last few days there seems to have been endless reports of an ever increasing number of experts speaking out, that makes it very difficult for the government.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
yet they will overcome this hurdle
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
like the bourbons they forget nothing and they learn nothing
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
so they'll fuck things up again
Johnny Doe
Well-Known Member
Very small sample of two, but my parents are now about 6 weeks past their second jab, and still very reticent to go anywhere, see my kids properly (i.e. still masked up at their window). I wonder if fear may hold down infections in the elderly, even once things open up?
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
Hmm I don't know, my equivalent sample of two are very much not reticent. I think you'll see different attitudes across all age groups not a young/old divide.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Without wishing to appear cynical, for most people an acceptable death rate is one at which they or their loved ones are at miminal risk of becoming a statistic. We're now down to a death rate of single figures per day and I think most people are probably going to be willing to accept that.
People die all the time and its going to get ever harder to convince millions of people that they should accept an ever greater risk of losing jobs, businesses, homes, educations, relationships etc in order to try and save ten strangers a day.
Like we did in December/January?
existentialist
Things Done
I don't think that is cynical, so much as realistic.
Minds don't do risk or probability well at the best of times, but factor in things like death, and the whole thing goes all runny. That's why clear and consistent messaging is so important, and one of the major reasons why so many countries have completely botched their responses, while others have managed rather better.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Death rates were a lot higher then and there wasn't the magic vaccine giving people ever more confidence and even then it was a lot more leaky than the first lockdown last spring.
It seems self-evident to me that the worse outcome for everyone would be to go ahead with the June magic day of freedom and then have to reimpose rules later, maybe even stricter rules than we have now. As such I am fairly confident this will be what the government will do.
Even if they postpone 21/6, we'll still, presumably, remain at the current level of restrictions. So, assuming a third wave is actually happening, it's going to continue unless they roll back or even lockdown anew.
Of course all this is 'if' and 'maybe', but it's clear, IMO, we've opened too much too quickly. Again.
Of course all this is 'if' and 'maybe', but it's clear, IMO, we've opened too much too quickly. Again.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
we are all statistics all the time and the sooner you realise this the better for all concerned.
I guess that MickiQ has not lost anyone or any work. Stats...
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
that shouldn't need saying and it's a great pity that it does need to be said
I don't see how we can stay at where we are if the virus rises because at that point it will be in the community to such a degree that current restrictions will be too light.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Yes you're right I have worked through out and everyone I care about has made it through the pandemic alive, I realise I have been very fortunate in that regard. Indeed I personally would be quite willing to carry on like this for a while yet.
However lots of people will have lost their jobs, endured broken relationships, lost contact with their families and starting today will start to lose their homes. There are people who have spent years building businesses that they are probably not going to be able to rebuild. They are the people who will want things back to 'normal' as soon as possible and I can't say I blame them.
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