What chance does Trump have of winning the 2024 Presidential Election?

[_Russ_]

The USA cannot count as a democracy, because it is too difficult for other parties to get on the ballot for Presidential elections.

I don't think there is a Democracy left on this planet that hasn't been warped into a dictatorship hiding behind a veil of accountability where we get the chance to choose the next dictator every so often with the only fake deference given to the electorate is motivated purely by the desire to stay in power

ETA sorry this doesnt really apply to Trump though, He is just some sort of Calculon .......Calculon 2.1 (Futurama reference not trying t be obscure just first comparison that came to mind)

 

[bemused]

Hillary Clinton was an appalling candidate. I'm not a fan of dynastic democracies. They're a sign that something is wrong with the system. But Michelle Obama would stand a much better chance against Trump than HC did imo.

WRT being a woman and how that would affect her chances, I think that gets overstated. Men still outnumber women as heads of government by a huge distance, but women win elections regularly around the world when they stand. Being a woman isn't in and of itself an electoral disadvantage. I see no reason why the US should be an exception to that.

I was in the US during the last election and Hillary is just deeply unlikable. Candidates need some degree of charm.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

I would say at present Trump is the favourite to win, but his current legal battles could change that. Polls show that a a minority of Trump supporters - some 25% in some polls - would not vote for him if he is criminally convicted. One thing is clear, if any of Trump's s indictments go to trial, he will be convicted. The cases against him in every indictment are so overwhelmingly strong, and in 3 of the 4 jurisdictions the jury pools are overwhelmingly anti-Trump. The real question is whether any of Trump's trials will conclude before the November election or whether he and his allies in the judiciary will be able to stall them long enough. Trump has multiple escape hatches. The Trump-appointed judge in the classified documents case looks like she's doing the rapist's bidding. Then there's Trump's bogus 'presidential immunity' claim which the conservative judges in the Supreme Court have already refused to hear it on an expedited basis. And then there's an up-coming Supreme Court hearing of appeals of
January 6 defendants, the decision of which may also delay the date Trump can go to trial for his attempts to overthrow democracy. Will this criminal, would-be dicator slip through the net?

 

[agricola]

I would say at present Trump is the favourite to win, but his current legal battles could change that. Polls show that a a minority of Trump supporters - some 25% in some polls - would not vote for him if he is criminally convicted. One thing is clear, if any of Trump's s indictments go to trial, he will be convicted. The cases against him in every indictment are so overwhelmingly strong, and in 3 of the 4 jurisdictions the jury pools are overwhelmingly anti-Trump. The real question is whether any of Trump's trials will conclude before the November election or whether he and his allies in the judiciary will be able to stall them long enough. Trump has multiple escape hatches. The Trump-appointed judge in the classified documents case looks like she's doing the rapist's bidding. Then there's Trump's bogus 'presidential immunity' claim which the conservative judges in the Supreme Court have already refused to hear it on an expedited basis. And then there's an up-coming Supreme Court hearing of appeals of
January 6 defendants, the decision of which may also delay the date Trump can go to trial for his attempts to overthrow democracy. The question really is whether Trump and his allies can stall proceedings long enough.

TBF I think that attempts to beat Trump by means that would beat other politicians - on their records, on their honesty, on whether they commit crimes or not - are probably unlikely to work in 2024, just as they failed in 2016 for both parties, and how it failed as a tactic in 2020 for the Democrats and now is failing in the GOP primaries.

Biden won in 2020 because they (aided by COVID) were able to portray Trump as a delusional lunatic, and enough of the country agreed with them. The same sort of thing would have worked for De Santis and Haley too, and still might if one of them drops out quickly enough - just call him and old, fat man with a brain that is no longer operating on all cylinders and Trump will inevitably respond (as he did in 2020) by saying or doing something that reinforces it.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

TBF I think that attempts to beat Trump by means that would beat other politicians - on their records, on their honesty, on whether they commit crimes or not - are probably unlikely to work in 2024, just as they failed in 2016 for both parties, and how it failed as a tactic in 2020 for the Democrats and now is failing in the GOP primaries.

Biden won in 2020 because they (aided by COVID) were able to portray Trump as a delusional lunatic, and enough of the country agreed with them. The same sort of thing would have worked for De Santis and Haley too, and still might if one of them drops out quickly enough - just call him and old, fat man with a brain that is no longer operating on all cylinders and Trump will inevitably respond (as he did in 2020) by saying or doing something that reinforces it.

The liberal media calling Trump a lunatic round the clock isn't really making any difference either though, because people who vote Trump aren't watching it. I don't get how Trump trying to steal the 2020 election is not resonating more with the electorate - that's Trump basically saying 'fuck you' to the entire electorate. People don't seem to either believe or care that he did that, and would do it again in a heart beat. I think its the most insane thing I've ever seen in politics by quite some way.

 

[Cloo]

I have seen clips lately of Biden going much more on the attack about Trump's insulting of veterans, attempts to overthrow democracy, his clear and present danger to aforementioned democracy, which is good and is the right track to be taking. It won't stop MAGA cultists, but it might give people who habitually vote Republican No Matter Who pause for thought that they ought to prevent Trump getting in, even if they don't like Biden.

 

[JimW]

Point made in an article bcuster posted on another thread was interesting. Said last time out he won Iowa caucus with 97%, so in fact his landslide represents a lot of Republicans not keen to vote for him.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

The liberal media calling Trump a lunatic round the clock isn't really making any difference either though, because people who vote Trump aren't watching it. I don't get how Trump trying to steal the 2020 election is not resonating more with the electorate - that's Trump basically saying 'fuck you' to the entire electorate. People don't seem to either believe or care that he did that, and would do it again in a heart beat. I think its the most insane thing I've ever seen in politics by quite some way.

The striking thing is how he doesn't fit at all with their own stated beliefs isn't it. How someone who can shit all over the constitution like that can inspire that devotion in a group who fetishise it is hard to understand. Similarly how a rabidly religious electorate can support someone who clearly isn't genuinely religious at all and whose behaviours are so totally at odds with supposed Christian values (even from the right wing angle - not talking about a 'ah but Jesus was actually a pacifist' angle here). Obviously it's more complicated than that but it's still hard to get your head round.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Point made in an article bcuster posted on another thread was interesting. Said last time out he won Iowa caucus with 97%, so in fact his landslide represents a lot of Republicans not keen to vote for him.

Yep, that was an interesting read, for those that missed it, in amongst the bunfight that was going on, on that thread, it's below.

Trump got 51% this year, compared to 97% in 2020.

Trump’s closest rival that year was William Weld, the long-forgotten former governor of Massachusetts. He had last held public office roughly 20 years before. Weld would win 1% of the Iowa vote.
That’s not the field today. Two legitimate challengers, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, have cut into Trump’s support, signaling some serious discomfort with Trump in the Republican base.
Taken together — including business executive Vivek Ramaswamy, who has since dropped out of the race — the “not Trump” coalition of candidates won nearly half the vote in a state that ABC News calls “overwhelmingly white and rural.” In other words, these were ideal conditions for a Trump landslide.

Haley is a magnet for independents, who did not vote in Iowa but will be casting votes aplenty in the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary, where Haley’s polls are rising.

She has begun making a sophisticated argument that as Trump drags all of his chaos, indictments, hearings and high negatives into the general election, he won’t just risk losing his own race.

He’ll put in jeopardy every down-ballot Republican in every state in the country.

Why that 'landslide' win in Iowa could spell trouble for Trump

Opinion: Donald Trump solidly won the Iowa Republican caucus. But it's not the landslide victory that many seem to think.

www.azcentral.com

 

[Sasaferrato]

Dear Lord, is Trump or Biden the best the USA can offer?

 

[belboid]

Yep, that was an interesting read, for those that missed it, in amongst the bunfight that was going on, on that thread, it's below.

Trump got 51% this year, compared to 97% in 2020.

That's 2020 tho, not really a fair comparison as he was actually the President at the time.

2016 is more relevant - and he lost that to Ted Cruz, getting less than 25% of the vote.

 

[shifting gears]

BetFair Exchange odds (truer odds than any actual bookmaker) makes Trump a 43% chance at present, Biden 32%

 

[pbsmooth]

The liberal media calling Trump a lunatic round the clock isn't really making any difference either though, because people who vote Trump aren't watching it. I don't get how Trump trying to steal the 2020 election is not resonating more with the electorate - that's Trump basically saying 'fuck you' to the entire electorate. People don't seem to either believe or care that he did that, and would do it again in a heart beat. I think its the most insane thing I've ever seen in politics by quite some way.

they think that Dems/Woke/Trans/TheNextDivisiveIssue is a bigger threat than anything Trump has done, I guess.

 

[StoneRoad]

Sadly, the $$$ that trump has grifted from his fan base means that his chances of election are not zero, because he can influence the media, by being in front of the cameras and "straight forward" advertising.
Despite any sane person understanding that the events of jan6th were an attempted insurrection - what else can you call an attempt to get Congress to disregard the [farcical] electoral college results ?

 

[hitmouse]

The striking thing is how he doesn't fit at all with their own stated beliefs isn't it. How someone who can shit all over the constitution like that can inspire that devotion in a group who fetishise it is hard to understand. Similarly how a rabidly religious electorate can support someone who clearly isn't genuinely religious at all and whose behaviours are so totally at odds with supposed Christian values (even from the right wing angle - not talking about a 'ah but Jesus was actually a pacifist' angle here). Obviously it's more complicated than that but it's still hard to get your head round.

Yeah, I remember back in the 2016 primaries (turns out it was 2015, even) when Trump basically called McCain a loser for getting captured during the Vietnam War, and with my big brain and amazing ability to predict events, I thought at the time "that's his political career fucked then, no way are any Republicans going to vote for a guy who openly insults military veterans like that". I'm a proper Nostradamus, me.

 

[agricola]

The striking thing is how he doesn't fit at all with their own stated beliefs isn't it. How someone who can shit all over the constitution like that can inspire that devotion in a group who fetishise it is hard to understand. Similarly how a rabidly religious electorate can support someone who clearly isn't genuinely religious at all and whose behaviours are so totally at odds with supposed Christian values (even from the right wing angle - not talking about a 'ah but Jesus was actually a pacifist' angle here). Obviously it's more complicated than that but it's still hard to get your head round.

They aren't that religious either, though. If you have a genuine understanding of the teachings of Christ then you know what televangelists are; there are specific warnings in the New Testament about that sort.

 

[agricola]

The liberal media calling Trump a lunatic round the clock isn't really making any difference either though, because people who vote Trump aren't watching it. I don't get how Trump trying to steal the 2020 election is not resonating more with the electorate - that's Trump basically saying 'fuck you' to the entire electorate. People don't seem to either believe or care that he did that, and would do it again in a heart beat. I think its the most insane thing I've ever seen in politics by quite some way.

That is the liberal media watching it though, and as you say they don't watch it.

Even the way the "election was stolen" has been discussed almost entirely on his terms, which has mainly involved the media raising his theories and debunking them rather than pointing to all the things he (and the GOP) have done to fix the election in advance, such as redistricting or how he deliberately tried to break the USPS to make postal voting harder.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

They aren't that religious either, though. If you have a genuine understanding of the teachings of Christ then you know what televangelists are; there are specific warnings in the New Testament about that sort.

Mmm I don't really agree with this tbh. You could equally argue the more tolerant types of Christians don't really understand the fire and brimstone Old Testament stuff couldn't you. Fact is the extreme evangelicals really strongly identify as religious and are very motivated by that - given that what purpose does a 'ah they're not properly Christian' get out clause serve?

 

[andysays]

The striking thing is how he doesn't fit at all with their own stated beliefs isn't it. How someone who can shit all over the constitution like that can inspire that devotion in a group who fetishise it is hard to understand. Similarly how a rabidly religious electorate can support someone who clearly isn't genuinely religious at all and whose behaviours are so totally at odds with supposed Christian values (even from the right wing angle - not talking about a 'ah but Jesus was actually a pacifist' angle here). Obviously it's more complicated than that but it's still hard to get your head round.

Are we really talking about people who fetishise the constitution for the sake of the constitution, or is it more that they fetishise free speech (for themselves) and the right to bear arms (for themselves) and the constitution is simply a means to those ends?

 

[Karl Masks]

looking forward to the Trump Starmer Axis

 

[GroovySunday]

Dear Lord, is Trump or Biden the best the USA can offer?

Turds float to the top

 

[petee]

Point made in an article bcuster posted on another thread was interesting. Said last time out he won Iowa caucus with 97%, so in fact his landslide represents a lot of Republicans not keen to vote for him.

i didn't see that article but yes, 49% of the IA goppers who showed up voted against him and haley will do better in NH (i was surprised at how well desantis polled. he's a c*nt too of course. as is haley. they're all c*nts.)

 

[kebabking]

A380 - despite my earlier optimism about Trump only having a better than even chance, truth is he's as close to a dead cert as anything in politics gets.

I'll be genuinely astonished if either any other republican gets the nomination, or Biden (or any other Dem) wins.

I regard his re-election as having similar - both in nature and scale - negative consequences to the accession to the Chancellorship of Adolf Hitler.

I am not a fan...

 

[RD2003]

A380 - despite my earlier optimism about Trump only having a better than even chance, truth is he's as close to a dead cert as anything in politics gets.

I'll be genuinely astonished if either any other republican gets the nomination, or Biden (or any other Dem) wins.

I regard his re-election as having similar - both in nature and scale - negative consequences to the accession to the Chancellorship of Adolf Hitler.

I am not a fan...

'Spengler predicted that about the year 2000, Western civilization would enter the period of pre‑death emergency whose countering would lead to 200 years of Caesarism (extra-constitutional omnipotence of the executive branch of government) before Western civilization's final collapse.'

(From Wikipedia-the book is all but unreadable.)

 

[8ball]

A380 - despite my earlier optimism about Trump only having a better than even chance, truth is he's as close to a dead cert as anything in politics gets.

I'll be genuinely astonished if either any other republican gets the nomination, or Biden (or any other Dem) wins.

I regard his re-election as having similar - both in nature and scale - negative consequences to the accession to the Chancellorship of Adolf Hitler.

I am not a fan...

I’m not a fan either. I think your assessment of probability is likely a little off, but I’d say yeah, there’s a good chance,

As for the Hitler stuff, we seemed to get through a term of him in the Oval Office before with fewer major conflicts coming to pass than did under Biden…

 

[krink]

I reckon there's 99% chance that if Trump doesn't win, Biden will.
Hope that helps.

 

[8ball]

I reckon there's 99% chance that if Trump doesn't win, Biden will.
Hope that helps.

Shit, way to bring the vibe down.

 

[krink]

Shit, way to bring the vibe down.

Have faith in that 1% chance of a spunking cock shocker

 

[Ax^]

so this thread is going well

 

[8ball]

Have faith in that 1% chance of a spunking cock shocker

Do they do spunking cocks over there?