What chance does Trump have of winning the 2024 Presidential Election?

[8ball]

Because she's black?

That was Bill. Hillary is white.

 

[pbsmooth]

I am investigating the percentage chance that Trump has of winning the November 2024 Presidential elections.
People are saying that it is 50% even chance between Trump and Biden.
But other people are saying that Trump faces an above 50% chance of being found guilty in a criminal case, before the election. He would likely face jail time.
So what chance has Trump of winning? 25%?

Do you have access to the internet? Would really help you out here.

 

[The Octagon]

I don't get why the Dems are allowing Biden to run, or does a sitting pres always get first refusal?

Forgiven a shedload of student debt
Trillion dollar infrastructure bill
Economy and job figures all up
Little personal issues (Hunter Biden stuff is embarrassing but no evidence thus far Joe was involved, and the Republicans are being made to look silly in the hearings regarding it).
Already beaten Trump in an election.

I understand he's not going to get motors running on this board, but for your US voters (most Dems and undecideds) he's not had a bad first 4 years tbh.

Who else would you go with?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

She'd lose for the same reason Hillary Clinton did.

Hillary Clinton was an appalling candidate. I'm not a fan of dynastic democracies. They're a sign that something is wrong with the system. But Michelle Obama would stand a much better chance against Trump than HC did imo.

WRT being a woman and how that would affect her chances, I think that gets overstated. Men still outnumber women as heads of government by a huge distance, but women win elections regularly around the world when they stand. Being a woman isn't in and of itself an electoral disadvantage. I see no reason why the US should be an exception to that.

 

[pbsmooth]

Forgiven a shedload of student debt
Trillion dollar infrastructure bill
Economy and job figures all up
Little personal issues (Hunter Biden stuff is embarrassing but no evidence thus far Joe was involved, and the Republicans are being made to look silly in the hearings regarding it).
Already beaten Trump in an election.

I understand he's not going to get motors running on this board, but for your US voters (most Dems and undecideds) he's not had a bad first 4 years tbh.

Who else would you go with?

Regardless, he’s incredibly unpopular unfortunately. The mistake they’ve made is not getting anyone else ready to stand instead.

 

[The Octagon]

Regardless, he’s incredibly unpopular unfortunately. The mistake they’ve made is not getting anyone else ready to stand instead.

His 'unfavourability' in polls is still better than Trump's from what I've seen.

And from a purely realpolitik viewpoint, there's going to be some shenanigans this time around that dwarf 2020 in terms of attempted vote tampering.

If I was picking a candidate, one with some actual current legislative power to combat that would be the way to go.

 

[StoneRoad]

Sadly for both America & the rest of the [sane] world, trumpkin's chances are far too high.

 

[8ball]

Hillary Clinton was an appalling candidate. I'm not a fan of dynastic democracies. They're a sign that something is wrong with the system. But Michelle Obama would stand a much better chance against Trump than HC did imo.

WRT being a woman and how that would affect her chances, I think that gets overstated. Men still outnumber women as heads of government by a huge distance, but women win elections regularly around the world when they stand. Being a woman isn't in and of itself an electoral disadvantage. I see no reason why the US should be an exception to that.

No, not being a woman. Very much the first reason. With Hillary, I got the strong impression from my American work colleagues that a lot of resentment came from the idea that she was chosen with the expectation that Democrat voters would do what they were told because the Dem (and big business) hierarchy had decided it was “her turn”.

I think those people I spoke to did wind up voting for Hillary, but in the nosepeg sense, because the alternative was Trump.

The same dynamics would apply with Michelle Obama, but without Hillary Clinton’s long term political experience to back things up I think things would likely go worse, and especially so with non-whites.

 

[Yossarian]

No, not being a woman. Very much the first reason. With Hillary, I got the strong impression from my American work colleagues that a lot of resentment came from the idea that she was chosen with the expectation that Democrat voters would do what they were told because the Dem (and big business) hierarchy had decided it was “her turn”.

I think those people I spoke to did wind up voting for Hillary, but in the nosepeg sense, because the alternative was Trump.

The same dynamics would apply with Michelle Obama, but without Hillary Clinton’s long term political experience to back things up I think things would likely go worse, and especially so with non-whites.

Wasn't Biden the candidate with the support of the Democratic because it was his "turn?" As the incumbent this time around, it's definitely Biden's turn, though this poll has Michelle Obama as the first choice of voters

Poll: Democrats would rather see Michelle Obama in the White House than Biden

(The Center Square) – If Democrats had a magic wand, they’d put Michelle Obama in the White House. The former first lady has more political star power than incumbent President

gazette.com

 

[Sue]

The same dynamics would apply with Michelle Obama, but without Hillary Clinton’s long term political experience to back things up I think things would likely go worse, and especially so with non-whites.

Michelle Obama would be a much better candidate than Hilary Clinton was but as I said, she's too sensible/smart for that.

It did seem before Biden got in that they were potentially lining up Harris but she seems to have disappeared (despite being VP etc).

 

[JimW]

His 'unfavourability' in polls is still better than Trump's from what I've seen.

And from a purely realpolitik viewpoint, there's going to be some shenanigans this time around that dwarf 2020 in terms of attempted vote tampering.

If I was picking a candidate, one with some actual current legislative power to combat that would be the way to go.

He can't get past the age thing, and it's not just a GOP talking point, otherwise favourable voters are hesitant.

 

[Rimbaud]

Yes, an improving economy would favour the sitting president surely. AI makes weird mistakes sometimes.

It must be influenced by training models from when Trump was President, discussing the 2020 election.

 

[Bannerrefuggee]

If we are talking about other Dems who could run, then I like Pete Buttigieg. I think they could elect a gay person, and if memory serves me, he ran against Hillary pretty well. Transport is a pretty big thing too.

 

[_Russ_]

Do you have access to the internet? Would really help you out here.

 

[_Russ_]

This forum that regularly discusses such matters being found on the Internet.
Usual play the. man bullshit

 

[Elpenor]

Some chance

 

[Johnny Vodka]

Bernie Sanders weighing in, saying Biden is going to need to change or he will be beaten by Trump.

Sanders warns Biden: address working-class fears or risk losing to demagogue

Sanders warns Biden: address working-class anxieties or risk losing election to demagogue

www.theguardian.com

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

The fact that Trump has any possibility of winning is a national embarrassment.

 

[Yossarian]

I think they should put Unnamed Generic on the ballot

https://archive.is/lTFHW

 

[A380]

He's gonna win isn't he...


(In early 2016 I was in the States when the Republicans primaries and debates were going on. I said he was going to be president and my companions took the piss.

I should have listened to my fears as I could have got 50/1 on Trump in the white house with UK bookies at that time

 

[Elpenor]

I was in New York in early 2016 and overheard a conversation at a restaurant and some Septic was saying, the biggest danger from a Trump victory in that election was he was likely to have at least 2 possibly 3 Supreme Court appointees during his term which would influence American politics long after he stopped being president.

Turned out to be right I think.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I think they should put Unnamed Generic on the ballot

View attachment 408148

https://archive.is/lTFHW

They should just pick someone young and spend the whole campaign going on about what a decrepit old fuck he is.

 

[petee]

She'd lose for the same reason Hillary Clinton did.

you must mean electoral college shenanigans because h. clinton won.

 

[NoXion]

This forum that regularly discusses such matters being found on the Internet.
Usual play the. man bullshit

Try not being a twat, it helps.

 

[8ball]

you must mean electoral college shenanigans because h. clinton won.

Haha yes, obviously.
Never was a President Trump.

Phew!

 

[cupid_stunt]

Haha yes, obviously.
Never was a President Trump.

Phew!

If only.

What petee meant, is that Clinton won the popular vote, 65,853,514 votes - 48.2% to Trump's 62,984,828 - 46.1%, almost 3 million more votes, but the electoral college system elected Trump.

* Wiki link.

 

[emanymton]

If only.

What petee meant, is that Clinton won the popular vote, 65,853,514 votes - 48.2% to Trump's 62,984,828 - 46.1%, almost 3 million more votes, but the electoral college system elected Trump.

* Wiki link.

So she lost.

If it had gone the other way, would you be saying Trump won?

 

[cupid_stunt]

So she lost.

If it had gone the other way, would you be saying Trump won?

I am not saying Trump didn't win, I am explaining what I think petee meant.

 

[8ball]

I am not saying Trump didn't win, I am explaining what I think petee meant.

I think it was plain enough what was underpinning the nonsense (though the explanation may have been useful to some of the children sat at the back).

 

[PTK]

The USA cannot count as a democracy, because it is too difficult for other parties to get on the ballot for Presidential elections.