US election 2020 thread

[JTG]

 

[prunus]

First (nearly) full 2016 2020 comparison - Robertson cty KY reported 93% of its votes, Trump +55%; 2016 Trump won +53%. Its a tiny county (1200 votes) but hmm anyway. Got to do something til midnight!

 

[prunus]

This is all still just absentee vote counting, but:
Fayette KY, one of the biggies, 83k votes counted (51% of total) Biden +49% - Clinton won it +10% in 16.

Biden is actually leading in KY at the moment! Won’t last of course, but

 

[Lord Camomile]

Oh, fucking hell. Just caught that Andrew fuckwit Neil is heading up the BBC election coverage.

No fucking thank you.

 

[JTG]

Nevada:



GOP not turning up? Only small bits of info but...

 

[Ted Striker]

I think the real benchmarks are to the poll predictions (tbh I take 538 as my gospel)

(i.e. as opposed to 2016)

Urgh, Andrew Neil can fuck off. And I can't get MSNBC to connect (In the UK). What's the best alternative?

 

[spitfire]

I think the real benchmarks are to the poll predictions (tbh I take 538 as my gospel)

(i.e. as opposed to 2016)

Urgh, Andrew Neil can fuck off. And I can't get MSNBC to connect (In the UK). What's the best alternative?

We've gone to Sky where some extra excitable bunny keeps telling us about slow vote counting.

Although the mood was lightened when a vox pop was spiced up by a woman saying fuck trump he's a racist and a white supremacist. No apology offered by the reporter on scene.

 

[belboid]

Donald Trump 0 - 2 Liverpool at halftime. I might be getting confused.

 

[Dogsauce]

Must be some signs coming from the betting markets, anyone follow/understand that stuff?

(yes, I haven’t made it to bed yet as promised)

 

[frogwoman]

First results coming in: Greene and Dekalb Counties IN; absentee votes (about 55% of total) breaking about +40% for Trump. Trump won about +50% overall in 2016. What does this mean? Not a lot, yet!

e2a: now Steuben county too - absentees (51%) +23% for Trump - he was +44% last time.

Oh shit

 

[Sue]

I think the real benchmarks are to the poll predictions (tbh I take 538 as my gospel)

(i.e. as opposed to 2016)

Urgh, Andrew Neil can fuck off. And I can't get MSNBC to connect (In the UK). What's the best alternative?

As these things go, don't mind AN too much. (I'm watching BBC.)

 

[JTG]

Oh shit

Those figures show swings against Trump and they're not complete anyway

 

[frogwoman]

Sorry I thought +23 as in 23 more percentage points or something

 

[frogwoman]

Those Kentucky results are interesting

 

[JTG]

Sorry I thought +23 as in 23 more percentage points or something

Fair! Caution over county level results anyway until they're def 100% complete

 

[JTG]

Those Kentucky results are interesting

Yeah if those Lexington results pan out similar to what we have so far it tends to evidence suburban swings against the President

 

[campanula]

nerves, froggie, innit? Messing with my head for sure. On a hair trigger of anxiety - avoiding anxious chain smoking with large bag of aniseed twists (already feeling slightly sick).

 

[JTG]

Polls closed in Virginia, South Carolina, Indiana, Georgia, Kentucky & Vermont

 

[frogwoman]

Yeah if those Lexington results pan out similar to what we have so far it tends to evidence suburban swings against the President

Just seen on guardian website that Kentucky is called for trump despite only 16% of the vote being counted? How is that even possible? Can the result change?

 

[Ted Striker]

I think the real benchmarks are to the poll predictions (tbh I take 538 as my gospel)

That said, I wish the network I'm watching (MSNBC, now found!) would benchmark result against 2016. Save the heart attacks when Trump is way ahead in a state he's always carried. AND adjust counties for expected forecasts (i.e. Florida is very polarised, is a strong Biden lead because Miami Dade has declared etc).

 

[prunus]

Those figures show swings against Trump and they're not complete anyway

Yes they’re really just for fun, while there’s nothing else to look at. AP have called KY for trump already, but the swings are still potentially interesting.

 

[prunus]

Just seen on guardian website that Kentucky is called for trump despite only 16% of the vote being counted? How is that even possible? Can the result change?

The result can change from the call - the call is just based on statistics, basically. The real result will be the real result. But KY was never going to flip to democrat I don’t think.

 

[belboid]

Trump 2 or 3% down in Florida counties so far, less than the polls said but still enough. Tho far too early to matter

 

[frogwoman]

The guardian says he is winning though

 

[prunus]

Vermont called for Biden before a single vote counted!

 

[frogwoman]

The result can change from the call - the call is just based on statistics, basically. The real result will be the real result. But KY was never going to flip to democrat I don’t think.

Yea I know Kentucky is going to stay Republican but how do they know with only 16% and so many mailed in ballots yet to come in?

 

[belboid]

Biden takes Guam

 

[JTG]

The result can change from the call - the call is just based on statistics, basically. The real result will be the real result. But KY was never going to flip to democrat I don’t think.

Yeah, he won KY by 30 points in '16 so they'll know from a fraction of the results whether that's changing enormously. Even if it were a ten point swing against him he'd still win so...

 

[frogwoman]

Vermont called for Biden before a single vote counted!

How the fuck do they know?

 

[JTG]

The guardian says he is winning though

Ignore the Guardian!