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US election 2020 thread

From memory it's an xtian org (or has such leanings). They rejected my membership because I hadn't been christened. The reasoning at the time was made quite explicit.
It used to be but isn’t any more. There are/were church specific groups where you probably had to be christened but they’re now non denominational
 
I’ve not seen much in the way of articles about what’s going on on Facebook, WhatsApp etc., other than one about unfounded Qanon-style conspiracy nonsense getting a lot of circulation amongst Latino groups in Florida.

A bit concerned about this knowing how this has been used by the Right before to get the vote out (Brexit, Bolsanaro etc.). They can only have got better at this, and I expect it’s all Hunter Biden at the moment. Stuff like this is often off people’s radar as it isn’t seen by people outside of the target group, and may not get picked up by polling as it tends to be aimed at getting people to vote who don’t normally get out, and might not have been weighted for in polling models.

has there been any reporting of this at all? Have a definite unease about all this despite the reported good polling numbers. Give me some reassurance!
 
I’ve not seen much in the way of articles about what’s going on on Facebook, WhatsApp etc., other than one about unfounded Qanon-style conspiracy nonsense getting a lot of circulation amongst Latino groups in Florida.

A bit concerned about this knowing how this has been used by the Right before to get the vote out (Brexit, Bolsanaro etc.). They can only have got better at this, and I expect it’s all Hunter Biden at the moment. Stuff like this is often off people’s radar as it isn’t seen by people outside of the target group, and may not get picked up by polling as it tends to be aimed at getting people to vote who don’t normally get out, and might not have been weighted for in polling models.

has there been any reporting of this at all? Have a definite unease about all this despite the reported good polling numbers. Give me some reassurance!
Not that I've seen but my feeling is that whatever is getting said on social media, there just aren't enough potential Trump voters left to drag out to counteract what you're going to see for the opposition

I mean, there was loads of this stuff four years ago and they still only squeezed home
 
I'm unchristened, and I never recall it coming up - I was in the Scouts for several years :hmm:

Same. Was a Cub in the Midlands (mid - late 70's), definitely got to sit out the religious stuff. Then when in Dublin, joined the CBSI (Catholic Boy Scouts of Ireland) no questions asked despite being clear upfront about the family beliefs. I think I got special permission from someone up high for that though, not sure how. My dad probably "knew where he lived". :D

Then, also in Dublin, I was in the Howth Sea Scouts (Scouts but sea, early '80s) which were a Protestant organisation and again, they let me carry on with my heretic ways.

So , I guess it massively varies depending on who is in charge of the unit.

The FCA (Irish TA) didn't give a fuck as long as I had 2 legs and 2 arms and could carry a gun on my own. Not for too long mind, they're heavy.

Anyway, on topic, I'll be staying up to watch the first few states declare. Will be getting pissed regardless of what happens. 🍻
 
I'm pondering doing a predictions thread and going all in by saying Biden's gonna win Texas and it'll be the biggest popular vote spanking of an incumbent President since FDR trounced Hoover by 17 points back in 1932

Go on then let's have it
 
I'm pondering doing a predictions thread and going all in by saying Biden's gonna win Texas and it'll be the biggest popular vote spanking of an incumbent President since FDR trounced Hoover by 17 points back in 1932
Another predictions thread would be worthwhile, so long as it was sufficiently different to 'think (not hope) etc'. I'm still more cautious than you over Yee-hahland, though. The Blue Wave will happen...at some point. Not to sure it will be texas this year though - georgia and NC look much more favourable.
 

Little more than the tea leaves.. fortunately. You could say it's still resdiual trauma from the 1992 Kinnock/Major fiasco. It just seems from a distance that Trump is getting all the headlines/making all the noise... I will happily be completely wrong. :)
 
The polling in the battleground states is all stil pretty marginal - there's always the risk there's a systemic error which could wipe out the Biden lead in alot of those.. :hmm:

US election 2020 polls: Who is ahead - Trump or Biden?
Look at 538 or leantossup (or cook political) for a better lo0wdown on them. it's their turf, they know it better.
Equally, look at the differences betweenTrump's performance in those states then, and now - the direction of travel is absolutely crystal clear, as is the fact that he has a lead greater than standard margin of error in MI, PA and WI.
Plus, the fact that AZ, GA, TX and NC are even in play tells its' own story - these states are historically solid, safe Republican territory. Th efact they are up for grabs says equal amounts about Trumps unpopularity and the changing demographics.
One final reassurance; the higher the turnout, the greater the chances of a dem win - in any contest. 2016 saw a low turnout. This year's turnout is set fair to break all records.
 
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