ruffneck23
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US election 2020 thread
- Thread starter petee
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At a Sunday night rally in Florida, Trump supporters chanted "Fire Fauci" and Trump said he's going to have to wait until "a little bit after the election" to do it - doesn't seem like a winning move in a state full of old people, but I guess we'll find out Tuesday how well his "Ignore COVID and it will go away" message resonated with older voters.
a_chap
When the world came apart, where were you?
It's all started in tears.
bimble
floofy
No it isn'tThe polling in the battleground states is all stil pretty marginal - there's always the risk there's a systemic error which could wipe out the Biden lead in alot of those..
US election 2020 polls: Who is ahead - Trump or Biden?
Trump - like Morrissey - is far more popular than you'd reasonably expect among Latinos, men in particular.
The Macho Appeal of Donald Trump (Published 2020)
Though a majority of Latino voters favor Democrats, Hispanic men are a small but enduring part of Trump’s base. Those supporters see him as forceful, unapologetic and a symbol of economic success.
JimW
支那暗杀团
Hang the DJT.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
He will do that, but fortunately too many people know that's not how it works. Still, it will feed the 'we wuz robbed' narativeLet's see if this happens:
Trump plans to declare premature victory if he appears "ahead" on election night
This is the first account of Trump explicitly discussing his own intentions.www.axios.com
I'm inclined to believe this is exactly what will happen.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
they will last for years
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i am struggling to see how someone so frequently bankrupted as trump can possibly be seen as a financial success, when he's resorted to running for and gaining the highest office in the land largely to further his business interests. without being president i bet he'd be on bankruptcy 7 (or would it be 8?)Trump - like Morrissey - is far more popular than you'd reasonably expect among Latinos, men in particular.
The Macho Appeal of Donald Trump (Published 2020)
Though a majority of Latino voters favor Democrats, Hispanic men are a small but enduring part of Trump’s base. Those supporters see him as forceful, unapologetic and a symbol of economic success.www.nytimes.com
maomao
普費斯
I have lost a lot of respect for the Latino community now. And not because of their politics.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
I think trump going for the anti lockdown vote is one thing he has that has the potential to win over people outside of his base.
As everywhere else, there is growing impatiance with the restrictions. Dunno if any polljng has been done on the, but could have the potential to prevent a biden landslide
As everywhere else, there is growing impatiance with the restrictions. Dunno if any polljng has been done on the, but could have the potential to prevent a biden landslide
bimble
floofy
That's got to be true Kaka Tim and could be a significant number of people, even if they think trump's the worst kind of clown they can see a clear choice of voting for the guy who won't force you to shut your business etc. But at the same time we do know he's lost a load of people (older people and women particularly) for his abject failure to deal with the virus so probably balances out, and he had all the conspiracy theorists from the start.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
You will do. Unless Biden wins Florida clearly, Trump will have declared victory and will be holding rallies. Even if it looks incredibly likely Biden has enough votes in places where it matters trump will unleash his battalions, of lawyers and Nazis. It would be grossly naive to say that votes will be counted up till whenever, as we regularly see the Supreme Court blocking democratic moves that appear to be perfectly normal.
Let’s not forget that in 2000 even two of the ‘liberal’ judges voted to stop the Florida recount because of contradictory rules. the us legal system is even worse than ours and even more open to political pressure. And that’s before you have the proud boys et al on the streets demanding a halt to any more vite counting.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
Possibly - except that most people know lockdown rules are a measure devolved to each State, and in some cases each municipality. Should (say) Gretchen Whitmer decide to implement a lockdown, trump can criticise it all he likes, but he is powerless to stop her doing so.
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belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
I’m still going for the polls being as wrong as they were last time, which means it will all be hanging on the three states where trump is gonna try to stop the counting and Arizona on a knife edge. That said, I also think Biden will win Texas or Florida, so trumps tactics wouldn’t work.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Was gonna post that. It's a tiny number of votes but I do wonder whether it corroborates other bits of polling and info that suggests GOP voters aren't as enthusiastic, Yeah I know about all the parades, rallies etc but that's not all their supporters
I'm going for polling error in Joe Biden's favour. Mitt Romney was overestimated in 2012, people forget that
Numbers geekery: Early Vote Analysis for Sunday, Nov. 1
I think this kind of analysis can only go so far. As he notes towards the end, with the record turnout we're seeing, that means more independent/unaffiliated/infrequent voters are participating so it can skew attempts at analysing where we may be at with this.
Independent registration is becoming more of a thing btw but the unaffiliated/infrequent groups tend to skew younger and less white than the mean so I wouldn't say a higher participation rate from these is great news for the President
I think this kind of analysis can only go so far. As he notes towards the end, with the record turnout we're seeing, that means more independent/unaffiliated/infrequent voters are participating so it can skew attempts at analysing where we may be at with this.
Independent registration is becoming more of a thing btw but the unaffiliated/infrequent groups tend to skew younger and less white than the mean so I wouldn't say a higher participation rate from these is great news for the President
Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
Biden still holding up well in Pennsylvania, According to a Monmouth poll
For those who don't know, Monmouth University's Polling Institute is one of the most, if not the most, respected and credible polling organisations in the USA
flypanam
Sausage to fortune
Sounds like the Latinos are in the process of becoming white to steal a phrase/concept from Noel Ignatiev.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
Just a gues here; people who were unsure about a black Prwsident in 2008, but found in 2008 that, on balance, they quite liked him after 4 years
But - really a wild guess
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Not sure why that wouldn't show up in polls, though. Anyhow, won't matter soon.
Huge difference between Cubans, Mexicans, Venezuelans etc etc. Non-English speakers, English speakers and primarily English speakers. It's quite a broad group and there's always been more of them supporting Republicans than is the case in, say, black voters
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