US election 2020 thread

[Ax^]

It says 1941, so not pre-nazi but it's wiki so obviously can't be sure of the exact date. Glad your school doesn't do nonsensical stuff like pledges.

it called the bellamy salute after the guy who wrote the pledge of allegiance so well before the Nazi's

still about as dodgy as the whole Pledge thing mind

 

[Streathamite]

In a way it isn't too far removed from the legal requirement here to hold a daily act of worship in schools (or something like that). It seems that plenty of schools largely ignore it, but I remember I wasn't allowed to skip it despite not being religious, whereas kids of non-xtian religions were. This was at a shitty CofE primary school so not entirely surprising.

same here, but then my school was pretty much joined at the hip to a cathedral, which in turn was a historical hangover from an entire monastery

 

[Streathamite]

Looking at the final polls in 2016, they're really not so far off. Clinton won the popular vote by 2 points. The final polls, with sampling ending within a few days of the election, showed a relatively wide range, from Trump winning by 5 points to Clinton winning by 7. The majority of the polls were within the 3-5 point lead for Clinton range. So they were only a couple of points out in reality, and they were closing, indicating that the email stuff was taking an effect.

wiki list of polls here

I think the accepted truth that the pollsters were way out in 2016 is overstated. They were somewhat out. Guardian poll tracker average still gives Biden an 8.5 lead. And there is no last-minute equivalent of the 2016 emails. They really will need to be way out this time for Trump to have any hope.

The most striking pattern of the 2016 polls is that they overestimated how many people would vote for a third candidate. That's the bit they got most wrong. Every poll gave Trump a smaller share than he actually got, and all but one gave Clinton a smaller share. Every single one gave third candidates more votes than they actually got.

They also underweighted/under-accounted for white men without a college degree. This group (especially the older ones amongst them) are the hardest to reach for telephone or online polling, yet they played a crucial part in PA, WI, MI.
However, all the polling groups say they've corrected that now. Plus, the 3rd party/write in vote will be much lower, so those 2 factors have been knocked out.
You're certainly correct on ev ery other point.

 

[Streathamite]

I'm still 'worried' about Tuesday... Trump seems to be having a good final few days..

I'm not. he's making a noise, but that's it. people's minds are pretty much made up. Hunter Biden's laptop was a damp squib, and there's too many already voted for the dial to move much.
Plus, COVID

 

[Ax^]

I can't imagine kids in the UK doing a pledge of alliegance - the teachers would be told to fuck off.

don't they make scouts do a similar sort of pledge in the united kingdom

 

[JTG]

That Iowa one has got to be an outlier. it just makes no sense

I can quite believe that Biden's behind there but there's no way he's that far behind in Iowa and as far ahead as he seems to be in Wisconsin next door.

But, even if the pollster knows it looks off, credit to them for publishing. Good polling orgs put their outliers out there anyway

 

[farmerbarleymow]

same here, but then my school was pretty much joined at the hip to a cathedral, which in turn was a historical hangover from an entire monastery

There was a church next door which we had to attend a couple of times a year. I remember watching Charlotte's Web there. But also playing British Bulldog in the playground.

 

[farmerbarleymow]

don't they make scouts do a similar sort of pledge in the united kingdom

No idea - the cunts didn't allow me to join as I wasn't christened given me non-religious parents.

The fuckers.

 

[Streathamite]

I think there really needs to be more talk about this. It's not over if/when the Dems win the election, far from it.

It certainly isn't. It can only ever be the start.

 

[Ax^]

No idea - the cunts didn't allow me to join as I wasn't christened given me non-religious parents.

The fuckers.

they do i was in the scouts for a bit (mostly due to my folks wanting rid all of the children during week nights ) and can confirm seeming as it was part of the reason for me leaving

that they get pissed off if you won't salute the flag and mouth off about the queen

 

[bimble]

what you have to be christened to join the scouts??

 

[Streathamite]

My predictions

Wisconsin, Ohio, Texas, South Carolina and Florida to stay red.
Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona to go blue

Not with the current numbers, Wisconsin won't. Biden's further ahead there than in MI or PA (or just about any non-Safe dem state, for that matter)

 

[farmerbarleymow]

what you have to be christened to join the scouts??

From memory it's an xtian org (or has such leanings). They rejected my membership because I hadn't been christened. The reasoning at the time was made quite explicit.

 

[JTG]

Not with the current numbers, Wisconsin won't. Biden's further ahead there than in MI or PA (or just about any non-Safe dem state, for that matter)

He could end up winning it by more than some non-battleground states such as Nevada

 

[Ax^]

what you have to be christened to join the scouts??

part of the pledge was to god , the british flag and the queen

guessing a lot of non religious parents said fuck that


can report that took quite a bit of shit for not being willing to salute the british flag as a kid


My folks found me a youth club as a kid to claim back their evenings during the week as a consequence

 

[bimble]

i was a terrible brownie, lasted about 2 weeks and then refused to go back.

 

[bimble]

this election is going to go on for several weeks isnt it.

 

[Ax^]

ok looking into it before 2014 they required as a joining rule that you held a faith

not the case anymore

 

[Ax^]

this election is going to go on for several weeks isnt it.

unless trump wins a good few weeks of him trying to whip his supporters into second america civil war whilst decrying all the votes against him
and saying its a leftish Antttteeefffaa plot to take over american

whilst suing everyone


hey a news reel of him being marched out of the white house in January by the secret service will at least be fun

 

[farmerbarleymow]

ok looking into it before 2014 they required as a joining rule that you held a faith

not the case anymore

My time was a long time ago - it was an exclusive club at the time. Yet another example of the malign influence of xtiantity.

 

[teqniq]

Short thread below:

 

[JTG]

this election is going to go on for several weeks isnt it.

Not if Biden wraps up plenty of states that should finish their counts on the night - Florida, Arizona and Texas should all be done and dusted early and if he gets two of those it's done

 

[Ax^]

hey 2014 is not that long ago for them to change the rules of barring non religious people from the organisation

think it took for the whole movement to be dying on its arse in most parts of the country before they started to change

 

[JTG]

Short thread below:

Yup, they had GOP state judges on their side

 

[bimble]

Not if Biden wraps up plenty of states that should finish their counts on the night - Florida, Arizona and Texas should all be done and dusted early and if he gets two of those it's done

oh ! is that true, on the night we will know the full results of florida & texas? How come , is their mail in voting all finished ?

 

[JTG]

oh ! is that true, on the night we will know the full results of florida & texas? How come , is their mail in voting all finished ?

Different state laws - Florida has been counting its mail in voting for the last two weeks so they're well ahead (PA, MI & WI can't touch theirs until election day). You'll probably see Florida declare their mail in votes straight away (so a big Dem lead) and then tally the election day votes (so GOP catching up as they count).
Texas has a much smaller mail in vote (it's not very easy to get one there) but has been early voting for two weeks so those votes are done, dusted and tallied ready to be announced. The mail ins get counted after the in person votes but as I say there are fewer so it won't take so long and may not make loads of difference

Basically in the south you may see a 'blue mirage' as early votes are announced with a big Dem lead and then the election day votes see the GOP catch up. In the rust belt states it'll almost certainly be a 'red mirage' - election day votes announced first with the GOP way ahead and then the postal ballots chip away at the lead over the following hours and days

Watch out for what's going on and don't get too excited or despondent over the early results!

 

[StoneRoad]

I'ld love for some of the counts for in-person on-the-day to put Biden so far ahead that even if all the mail-in votes were for the orange buffoon it can't change the overall result ... (I know it doesn't quite work like that ...)

 

[bimble]

but by .. the day of 4th (?) texas and florida will be properly declared all votes counted? Will you draw a conclusion from that as to who is the winner then?

 

[JTG]

but by .. the day of 4th (?) texas and florida will be properly declared all votes counted? Will you draw a conclusion from that as to who is the winner then?

Should be unless they're extraordinarily close (like half a percentage point close).
Both states award such a high number of EC votes that if they both go to Biden it's pretty much game over

 

[JimW]

Wake me up when they drag Trump out for hanging.