US election 2020 thread

[JTG]

is there any sort of argument that the big turnout and early voting doesn't indicate a thumping for trump? The assumption is that its driven by people desperate to get rid of foul fuck - and spooked by his blatant attempts at voter suppression. Or has everyone got it wrong and its driven by pro-trump enthusiasm and/or fear of evil commie biden?

I won't say that it hasn't occurred to me...
But IN GENERAL infrequent voters tend to break for Dems when they do show up. There's a reason the GOP throw a lot of resources at ensuring people can't vote! Take Latinos - they're polling around 60-30 for Biden (they're actually more Trumpish than last time, probably because last time he was running a lot of rhetoric around the border wall that isn't being heard this time). Latinos tend not to turn out that highly for various reasons but they're def a largely Democratic electorate. In a state like Texas (or Arizona for that matter), if they turn out at a higher than usual rate then it's almost certainly bad news for the GOP who want their Good Ole Boys to vote and nobody else

That's the theory anyway

 

[littlebabyjesus]

is there any sort of argument that the big turnout and early voting doesn't indicate a thumping for trump? The assumption is that its driven by people desperate to get rid of the foul fuck - and spooked by his blatant attempts at voter suppression. Or has everyone got it wrong and its driven by pro-trump enthusiasm and/or fear of evil commie biden?

JTG's link above gives some hints at that. Short answer is no. Twice as many registered Dems as Rep (where this is recorded) have voted so far. all the evidence points to the opposite - the higher the turnout the better it is for Biden.

 

[JTG]

Another thing I'd chuck in is that the evidence appears to point to a 70-30 split in favour of the Dems in the early vote. Now obviously that means the GOP have a fair few voters to come through on polling day itself but what it also means is that the Dems can devote more time, cash and resources to turning out their more infrequent voters. They'll have access to the rolls of who has had their vote accepted already and will be crossing names off and chasing the remainder. So it means that Democrats can actively drive up turnout amongst their own likely supporters more effectively

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I really can't see how Trump doesn't lose.

That worries me a little, though.

 

[two sheds]

He's going to go apeshit on election night demanding his proud boys back him up if he loses.

 

[Kaka Tim]

He's going to go apeshit on election night demanding his proud boys back him up if he loses.

probably - but i think the number of paid up gun toting loons ready to go ugly for trump and merica is overplayed. They have the capacity to do some nasty shit - but localised, isolated, aggro rather than anything approaching any sort of "insurrection" . Look at the numbers on their little days out - a few thousand is the most they can muster. Things like BLM get way way more people on the streets.

 

[Streathamite]

is there any sort of argument that the big turnout and early voting doesn't indicate a thumping for trump?

Pretty much none. Historically, the bigger the turnout, the greater the likelihood of a Dem win, plus all the indications we have are that early voters are much more likely to be dems

 

[littlebabyjesus]

probably - but i think the number of paid up gun toting loons ready to go ugly for trump and merica is overplayed. They have the capacity to do some nasty shit - but localised, isolated, aggro rather than anything approaching any sort of "insurrection" . Look at the numbers on their little days out - a few thousand is the most they can muster. Things like BLM get way way more people on the streets.

absolutely. They're the equivalent demographic more or less, seems to me, as the nobheads who turn out for the pro-Brexit protests here. (Except with added guns.)

 

[Streathamite]

absolutely. They're the equivalent demographic more or less, seems to me, as the nobheads who turn out for the pro-Brexit protests here. (Except with added guns.)

or - though I am not saying Trump's lot are full-on fascists, for all his Mussolini-wannabe posturings - the EDL, who made a huge noise, but mostly got pitifully poor turnout for their marches, and were always comfortably outnumbered by the counter-protesters

 

[yield]

or - though I am not saying Trump's lot are full-on fascists, for all his Mussolini-wannabe posturings

RJ, flypanam recommended Hinterland upthread and a few others have on the board. I'm about half way through at the moment it's mainly autobiograhpical and well worth a read.

I'm jesting, there was a great book released in 2018 called Hinterland (worth a read) that did show that the far right was able to get a following but in the epilogue of the French edition of the book Neel sees some cause for hope for those of us that want a society fundamentally reordered The Spiral

 

[Streathamite]

RJ, flypanam recommended Hinterland upthread and a few others have on the board. I'm about half way through at the moment it's mainly autobiograhpical and well worth a read.

cheers for that!

 

[ohmyliver]

Has this been posted? Seems an oddly pavlovian response to hearing the word 'cocaine'

 

[two sheds]

Had seen this before - interesting to see whether it actually happens

Trump passes executive order that could destroy a future Biden administration

‘Through this order, President Trump has declared war on the professional civil service by giving himself the authority to fill the government with his political cronies who will pledge their unwavering loyalty to him, not to America’

www.independent.co.uk

You'd hope that Biden could do a similar executive order to get rid of the fuckers though.

 

[spring-peeper]

Malarkey! These are the words Americans looked up during the debate | CNN

Though a lot happened during Thursday evening's presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, data from the Merriam-Webster Dictionary and Dictionary.com have shown us what actually stuck.

www.cnn.com

 

[Yossarian]

Has this been posted? Seems an oddly pavlovian response to hearing the word 'cocaine'

"Maybe we shouldn't get into the subject of sons with cocaine problems after all...."

 

[JTG]

i mean, if this doesn't convince you that he's in severe trouble, nothing will

 

[Streathamite]

Had seen this before - interesting to see whether it actually happens

Trump passes executive order that could destroy a future Biden administration

‘Through this order, President Trump has declared war on the professional civil service by giving himself the authority to fill the government with his political cronies who will pledge their unwavering loyalty to him, not to America’

www.independent.co.uk

You'd hope that Biden could do a similar executive order to get rid of the fuckers though.

I really wouldn't put it past him. It could do immense long term damage - but pretty much all he's done as President shows he doesn't give a fuck about that

 

[Streathamite]

i mean, if this doesn't convince you that he's in severe trouble, nothing will

WOW!!!!
I mean...Georgia....
having said that, Georgia and NC (and at least half of Florida) are much more 'New South' than (say) Mississippi or Alabama

 

[JTG]

WOW!!!!
I mean...Georgia....
having said that, Georgia and NC (and at least half of Florida) are much more 'New South' than (say) Mississippi or Alabama

Yeah, the Atlanta Metro is about half the population of Georgia and gets significantly more diverse/liberal with each passing year.

Apparently the cross breaks in that poll has Biden at only mid-70s with black voters, which seems way too low (you'd expect 90 or so really). He's losing whites by 36 points, which is a result in Georgia - Trump needs to win whites by 44/45 points bare minimum.

Both senate races looking good as well - run offs but when voters are asked who they'd go for in a hypothetical run off, the Dems win both times

 

[JTG]

NC also looks at least an even chance for the Dems in both Presidential and Senate races. Dem governor as well so they have someone on their side if things get messy

 

[Streathamite]

Both senate races looking good as well - run offs but when voters are asked who they'd go for in a hypothetical run off, the Dems win both times

Both Warnock and Ossoff on their way?

 

[Hollis]

This is all looking good..

 

[Streathamite]

Yeah, the Atlanta Metro is about half the population of Georgia and gets significantly more diverse/liberal with each passing year.

Also, now I come to think of it, Athens, Augusta and Columbus are pretty diverse and can be quite liberal (and Macon too, to a lesser extent). And Athens has loads of studes.
Hell, no state which can produce REM and the B-52s can be that reactionary!

 

[ohmyliver]

"Maybe we shouldn't get into the subject of sons with cocaine problems after all...."

It's all a bit

 

[JTG]

Also, now I come to think of it, Athens, Augusta and Columbus are pretty diverse and can be quite liberal (and Macon too, to a lesser extent). And Athens has loads of studes.
Hell, no state which can produce REM and the B-52s can be that reactionary!

Haha! It's only ever been a matter of time, extended by vote suppression and a stubbornly solid racist voting block.
NC too has Charlotte and the Research Triangle. Nowhere's ever as bad as it's made out. Except maybe Mississippi.

 

[weltweit]

Looking forward to saying bye to Trump, but I don't hold out many hopes for Biden, he does seem a bit tired of it all. Better than the alternative isn't in this case a ringing endorsement.

 

[JTG]

Anyway, hats off to Houston...

 

[Streathamite]

This is all looking good..

That is excellent. Because I have just crunched the numbers on the 538 interactive map I posted earlier upthread, and he only needs to add the top 5 to his 'bankables' and he's home 'n' hosed - 277. And the only one of those that looks slightly less-than-solid is PA.
Plus, if he wins those, and Florida, NC and Iowa (as that chart strongly suggests he will), he has 327 EC votes - and that's excluding any from US territoires and DC

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Two thoughts following the debate last night (The standard of which was awful. Both candidates are fucking hopeless):

1. Sanders would have been an incredible watch during that debate on covid, climate change, race and the economy. It was well chaired and there was a real opportunity for a candidate with a brain and capable of stringing a sentence together. The answers Trump and Biden gave were utterly pitiful.

2. I simply don’t recognise the polling and the reality. There just isn’t energy around the Biden campaign. Again, the negative basis of the offer: ‘he’s not Trump’ just isn’t motivational.

The most likely result remains Biden, of course, but by a narrower majority than the polling industry is predicting as this indicates.

 

[Streathamite]

Haha! It's only ever been a matter of time, extended by vote suppression and a stubbornly solid racist voting block.
NC too has Charlotte and the Research Triangle. Nowhere's ever as bad as it's made out. Except maybe Mississippi.

Absolutely, agreed on all points. it was always a matter of if, not when, the levee would break. And the GOP know that, which is why they have battled so hard to hold back that day. It really does look like this is going to be that year.