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US election 2020 thread

Smokeandsteam said:
Two thoughts following the debate last night (The standard of which was awful. Both candidates are fucking hopeless):

1. Sanders would have been an incredible watch during that debate on covid, climate change, race and the economy. It was well chaired and there was a real opportunity for a candidate with a brian and capable of stringing a sentence together. The answers Trump and Biden gave were utterly pitiful.

2. I simply don’t recognise the polling and the reality. There just isn’t energy around the Biden campaign. Again, the negative basis of the offer: ‘he’s not Trump’ just isn’t motivational.

The most likely result remains Biden, of course, but by a narrower majority than the polling industry is predicting as this indicates.

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I just wish I had a 'brian':p
 
Smokeandsteam said:
Two thoughts following the debate last night (The standard of which was awful. Both candidates are fucking hopeless):

1. Sanders would have been an incredible watch during that debate on covid, climate change, race and the economy. It was well chaired and there was a real opportunity for a candidate with a brian and capable of stringing a sentence together. The answers Trump and Biden gave were utterly pitiful.

2. I simply don’t recognise the polling and the reality. There just isn’t energy around the Biden campaign. Again, the negative basis of the offer: ‘he’s not Trump’ just isn’t motivational.

The most likely result remains Biden, of course, but by a narrower majority than the polling industry is predicting as this indicates.

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We've already covered why registrations don't really matter as much as some think they do
 
Smokeandsteam said:
2. I simply don’t recognise the polling and the reality. There just isn’t energy around the Biden campaign. Again, the negative basis of the offer: ‘he’s not Trump’ just isn’t motivational.
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The thing is 'he's not Trump' is motivational, right now - because it holds out the promise of a return to sanity, healing of national divisions, getting the country back on an even keel, and a rational approach to COVID-19.
Cosnidering how absolutely pulverised, scared and weary mny Americans feel right now, that's powerfully seductive
 
Smokeandsteam said:
Two thoughts following the debate last night (The standard of which was awful. Both candidates are fucking hopeless):

1. Sanders would have been an incredible watch during that debate on covid, climate change, race and the economy. It was well chaired and there was a real opportunity for a candidate with a brian and capable of stringing a sentence together. The answers Trump and Biden gave were utterly pitiful.

2. I simply don’t recognise the polling and the reality. There just isn’t energy around the Biden campaign. Again, the negative basis of the offer: ‘he’s not Trump’ just isn’t motivational.

The most likely result remains Biden, of course, but by a narrower majority than the polling industry is predicting as this indicates.

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Totally agree with point 1. but I'm not sure I do with point 2. The pollsters reckon they've fixed the errors that led them to underestimate Trump last time. A similar thing happened with Corbyn here - they changed their weightings following 2017, and sadly they got it more or less dead right last year. So I would think there's a decent chance that they're right this time.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Totally agree with point 1. but I'm not sure I do with point 2. The pollsters reckon they've fixed the errors that led them to underestimate Trump last time. A similar thing happened with Corbyn here - they changed their weightings following 2017, and sadly they got it more or less dead right last year. So I would think there's a decent chance that they're right this time.
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They got the 2018 midterms pretty much dead on
 
two sheds said:
Had seen this before - interesting to see whether it actually happens

www.independent.co.uk

Trump passes executive order that could destroy a future Biden administration

‘Through this order, President Trump has declared war on the professional civil service by giving himself the authority to fill the government with his political cronies who will pledge their unwavering loyalty to him, not to America’
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

You'd hope that Biden could do a similar executive order to get rid of the fuckers though.
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I'm always dubious of claims that Trump is planning something Machiavellian since the man is as devoid of brains as he is of morals. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a purely personal act of spite so he can 'get even' with civil servants (a certain doctor comes to mind) who he feels were not sufficiently supportive and/or loyal to him.
His aides had to put his name in his daily briefings in order to get him to even read them, the idea of him coming up with any kind of forward thinking devious plan is a bit of a leap.
 
I think you really have scrabble around for any evidence other than trump getting wiped out. More than anything the scale of early voting points to an anti trump tidal wave.
Even when he won, his personal ratings were low (and he lost the popular vote). Now he is utterly toxic for much of the electorate and only has his base vote.
 
JTG said:
We've already covered why registrations don't really matter as much as some think they do
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But unlike polls they are at least evidential. Anyone who thinks the polls feel right needs their bumps felt. Biden is a bit like Wilson when he defeated Heath. An elderly statesman falling over the line. His campaign, his ideas, his faux working class act. He’s shit
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Totally agree with point 1. but I'm not sure I do with point 2. The pollsters reckon they've fixed the errors that led them to underestimate Trump last time. A similar thing happened with Corbyn here - they changed their weightings following 2017, and sadly they got it more or less dead right last year. So I would think there's a decent chance that they're right this time.
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We’ll see. The polling got the scale of Labour’s defeat badly wrong. My sole reason for doubting the US polling is that there is no sense of hope, insurgency, energy or cultural/societal shift behind the Biden campaign. I can’t see any outcome other than he falls over the line.
 
Smokeandsteam said:
We’ll see. The polling got the scale of Labour’s defeat badly wrong. My sole reason for doubting the US polling is that there is no sense of hope, insurgency, energy or cultural/societal shift behind the Biden campaign. I can’t see any outcome other than he falls over the line.
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I would be inclined to agree with you except that the polls are so consistent across the board. It's not impossible that they'll be wrong again and you could be right. A month ago, Biden falling over the line would have been my bet, with Trump sneaking it with a minority vote again an outside possibility. But I just can't see the latter happening now. Lack of hope doesn't translate into votes for Trump this time, so surely Trump's only chance is a dismal turnout, and that doesn't look likely.

That's no reflection on what I think about Biden. He is an utterly dismal candidate and I'm sure he'll be a crushing disappointment as president. But I think things are so bad right now that many Americans who feel the same will still turn out to make sure they get rid of Trump. It feels to me more and more like an equivalent of a French presidential runoff between some slimy shite and the NF, and there is always a high turnout in France for that (around 80%), no matter how dismal the choice.
 
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littlebabyjesus said:
I would be inclined to agree with you except that the polls are so consistent across the board. It's not impossible that they'll be wrong again and you could be right. A month ago, Biden falling over the line would have been my bet, with Trump sneaking it with a minority vote again an outside possibility. But I just can't see the latter happening now. Lack of hope doesn't translate into votes for Trump this time, so surely Trump's only chance is a dismal turnout, and that doesn't look likely.
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I’ll be interested to see what the polls look like as we get into the last 5 days. I agree that turnout in 5 or 6 states will be key. It’s actually even more focussed than that in some instances. Maybe it’s just me that’s profoundly depressed and pissed off every time I see Biden...
 
Smokeandsteam said:
You been on the ale?
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No, killer b has a fair point. Absolutely no one on this thread has any great expectationas of biden, superficially-progressive platform or no. We all know he is the same old liberal-centrist shite. Basically, an older, considerably less smart version of Bill clinton, well whoopee doo.
So, on the basis that you takes yer pleasures where you can, we can at least take some from the tangerine Caudillo's imminent humiliation.
 
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Streathamite said:
Also, now I come to think of it, Athens, Augusta and Columbus are pretty diverse and can be quite liberal (and Macon too, to a lesser extent). And Athens has loads of studes.
Hell, no state which can produce REM and the B-52s can be that reactionary!
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Another thing on Georgia: Stacey Abrams missed the Governorship by 1.4% on a 70% turn out two years ago. Current polling has Biden outrunning her by 11 points with white voters. If that is the case, there is no universe in which Biden doesn't win Georgia
 
JTG said:
Another thing on Georgia: Stacey Abrams missed the Governorship by 1.4% on a 70% turn out two years ago.
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Yes, you're right I clean forgot that. And if memory serves, she wasn't that hot a candidate. alright, but no better.
Current polling has Biden outrunning her by 11 points with white voters.
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Fucking hell!:eek: That is simply stunning figures.
If that is the case, there is no universe in which Biden doesn't win Georgia
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Yep, he won't even need to win PA (which he almost certainly will anyway), FL or AZ (both pretty likely too).
And also congratulations Senator Ossoff. Welcome to Washington, Senator Purdue.
 
In fact, early voting means this election could have the highest turnout (in %age terms) since 1908.
In which case, pretty much game over. It would take an almighty curveball, the like of which has simply never, ever been seen before - let alone factored into anyone's calculations - to deliver a Trump win. Every single thing we have learned about US presidentuial electtions in the modern era would have to be turned on its' head.
The stats geeks and the psephologists do get quite a lot wrong, tbh. But they never get this much wrong.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
It feels to me more and more like an equivalent of a French presidential runoff between some slimy shite and the NF, and there is always a high turnout in France for that (around 80%), no matter how dismal the choice.
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But that was not the case in 2017, turnout was ~75%, low by French standards, in fact 5% lower than 2012. And in fact going back further 2002 saw a slightly lower turnout than 2007. The FN/RN making it to the last round might encourage some voters but the idea it always leads to a high turnout overall is not really true.

EDIT: Turnout was also low in the 2017 legislative elections where the RN did make gains.
In fact one of the reasons why the RN, and populist radical right parties in general, manage to win seats is because of lowered turnouts.
 
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