Not at all. Most of them are remarkably steady and if you think a state of play that shows TEXAS as level pegging is concerning then you my friend need to have a lie down
I mean, essentially, if a black woman came so close to winning the governorship of Georgia that the margin almost certainly came down to standard suppression stuff then you aint telling me that with two more years for the Atlantas suburbs to trend bluer and an inoffensive white guy as candidate there isn't at least a very good chance that Georgia flipsYes, you're right I clean forgot that. And if memory serves, she wasn't that hot a candidate. alright, but no better.
Fucking hell!That is simply stunning figures.
Yep, he won't even need to win PA (which he almost certainly will anyway), FL or AZ (both pretty likely too).
And also congratulations Senator Ossoff. Welcome to Washington, Senator Purdue.
www.texasmonthly.com
qz.com
www.cbsnews.com
nymag.com
Dunno about figures but I think the results spoke for themselves in the end. Loads of people looking for an excuse not to show up for her and we got what we got in the end.
There have been plenty of similar claims about demographics were going to make the Tory party unelectable. (EDIT from 2017)
Fair
Don't disagree, though that midwest narrative was always dodgy anyway - I mean, Wisconsin only very narrowly went for Gore & Kerry so it's long been marginal for a start so it shouldn't have been such a massive shock that it flipped.
The strong overall characteristic of those numbers is stability across the last month. Trump's share hasn't continued to collapse but he hasn't clawed back in a single one of those states.
Indeed. And notice how nobody ever considers the possibility of a polling error on 2012 levels - when Obama's vote was underestimated and he cruised home in what had looked like a tight race
There always is. It's harder to do when you're getting destroyed though
sure, but as the pollsters have admitted, four years ago they erred by not taking into sufficient account the votes of bluecollar, non-college educated whites. By all accounts, they've rectified that. Plus, the demographics four years down the track are that bit more Dem-favourable. Look what JTG has posted about GA - it's falling his wayAll this talk of this year being the one that Texas and Georgia turn blue is definitely giving me a sense of deja vu.
Could Hillary Clinton Turn Texas Blue?
"I don’t know anyone nationally who’s scoffing at this," says the chairman of the state GOP.
A Texas pollster explains how Hillary Clinton just might turn the Lone Star state blue
Hispanic voter turnout will be key.
Can Hillary Clinton Win Texas?
Some Democrats believe what was once unthinkable could become a reality in November.www.theatlantic.com
Can Hillary Clinton really win in Georgia?
The state is usually pretty rough terrain for Democrats, but in an election year like this, strategists in the state say anything is possible
Well, you could argue that the popular vote suggets Trump was even less popular....but, yes, she really was a divisive, unpopular candidate
There was the phenomenon in 2016 of people who would have voted for Sanders going for Trump over Clinton. Not such a factor this time. A sitting president has to run on their record in office. Ha!
I meant in the run up to the presidential campaign sorry - iirc the only figure who polled lower than her was in fact Donald Trump.
ah, see what you mean, agreed on both points
it's really barely a factor at all this time, not least because Trump has so completely failed to deliver on his big, big promises to them. As you say, an incumbent has to deliver on his record.
Maybe. However, as above, significant numbers of people angry with status quo politics did vote for Trump in 2016.
