US election 2020 thread
- Thread starter petee
- Start date
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
If it's close, yeah. If it's a landslide, the exit polls will clinch it, assuming they do them like they do them here. They're never far wrong.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
but the polls will only be in the day voters, massively swing in favour of trump (we expect). How much in favour, what the mail in vote split is, will still be just guesswork dependent on which counties they come from and other inexact indicators.
Yes, it's not going to be normal.
Here's a table of when states start counting their mail ballots: VOPP Table 16: When Absentee/Mail Ballot Processing and Counting Can Begin
In the east, FL and NC are counting now (or at least FL is and NC is allowed to, not sure if they are or not). PA can't start even opening them until 7am on election day. Upshot is that we'll probably have most of the FL early vote immediately but PA is going to take days. We'll probably have TX (big counties can start counting at the end of early voting - Oct 30th) and AZ (can begin the count now) called before we know what's happened in PA
MI & WI are also states that can only start on election day
Here's a table of when states start counting their mail ballots: VOPP Table 16: When Absentee/Mail Ballot Processing and Counting Can Begin
In the east, FL and NC are counting now (or at least FL is and NC is allowed to, not sure if they are or not). PA can't start even opening them until 7am on election day. Upshot is that we'll probably have most of the FL early vote immediately but PA is going to take days. We'll probably have TX (big counties can start counting at the end of early voting - Oct 30th) and AZ (can begin the count now) called before we know what's happened in PA
MI & WI are also states that can only start on election day
spring-peeper
Well-Known Member
Trump was hoping it would be his "Hail Mary pass" - the one thing that would turn tide of opinion.
He got it in the last election when Hillary's email scandal broke.
He didn't get the same result with Biden.
No one is gasping with horror this time.
On top of that, given how on point Harris seems to have been in organising its vote and encouraging voters to the polls, I can't imagine they'll be slouches over counting either. Those early votes (maybe a million and a half at the rate they're going) will be tallied and waiting to be release at close of polls on election day
Clinton's favourables in polling were so bad last time that you almost feel people were looking for a reason not to vote for her and the emails gave them that reason. People actually seem to like Biden so it's not really the same thing regardless of substance. That can be seen in both his personal ratings and the fact that he's averaging at or over 50% in 23 states plus the NE-2 district. Clinton never got anything like that even when she was looking like favourite to win
spring-peeper
Well-Known Member
Feds say Russia and Iran have interfered with the presidential election
Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe said Wednesday both Iran and Russia have obtained US voter registration information in an effort to interfere in the election, including Iran posing as the far-right group Proud Boys to send intimidating emails to voters.
flypanam
Sausage to fortune
If your interested in what Corey Robin is saying at the moment he's a good piece here The Gonzo Constitutionalism of the American Right
I think his location of gonzo constitutionalism as the animus of the American right is spot on.
I think his location of gonzo constitutionalism as the animus of the American right is spot on.
Yossarian
⏭️
Nebraska and Maine are the only states to split their electoral votes by district instead of awarding them all to the overall winner of the state vote - apparently there's a few scenarios in which a single electoral vote from one of those states could decide the election.
bimble
floofy
This same old outsider stance doesn't have a chance this time around does it, seeing as he has been the actual president of america for the last four years.
I've seen nothing from trump that even tries to get him new votes, only attempts to hold onto the same people who went for it last time and to get as many others as possible to not vote at all. hashtah MAG.
I've seen nothing from trump that even tries to get him new votes, only attempts to hold onto the same people who went for it last time and to get as many others as possible to not vote at all. hashtah MAG.
Aye. One vote per district and two for the overall winner of the state. State of play from '16 is that NE was all red and ME's second district was too (state was blue overall).
NE 2nd district (essentially Omaha and suburbs) was won by Obama in '08. Horrified by this development, the state GOP redistricted asap to make it redder and it duly flipped back to the GOP in '12. But the suburbs have continued to run away from the GOP and current polling shows that Biden is reasonably well ahead and is favourite to win it this time around.
ME 2nd district is the more rural of the state's two districts - the first is the coastline and includes Portland while the second is one of the most rural districts in the country and the largest district east of the Mississippi, taking in the long and sparsely populated stretch up to the Canadian border. It had been fairly reliably Democratic since Bill Clinton's first win in 1992 but went for Trump by ten points in '16. Polling there is variable, probably want to think of it as a toss up.
ETA: ooh, just seen that the 2018 midterm in ME-02 was the first there to use ranked choice voting - the Dem challenger was 2k votes behind the GOP incumbent but ended up 3.5k votes ahead once votes were redistributed from the also rans. So you can surmise that things are still pretty tight there!
Last edited:
Lord Camomile
Yipchaa!
Is it worth having a separate thread for House seats (if one doesn't already exist 
)?
)?
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
I had better row back on this...a bit. The fact is, his margin in PA is still a little too close to comfort, ditto NC and FL He's still very much the favourite, it's his to lose, but he can't afford an ounce of complacency, and he really needs to blitz those states - especially PA and FL (more EC votes theer than in the other states).True!
In fact, Biden is almost certain to win, simply because if he wins CO, MI, PA and WI - he's there. 272. And that's even if he loses in NC, FL, AZ and GA (he's ahead in all of those, and the sheer fury felt by most Arizonans over the insults Trump flung at John McCain has to be heard to be believed. Word reaches me that McSally is now reduced to throwing things at the TV and whimpering pitifully, every time trump opens his gob)
having said that, if JTG's optimism about TX is borne out by results, it really won't matter.
Pennsylvania : President: general election Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
Six credible surveys out yesterday for PA (Survey Monkey are garbage imo) giving Biden leads of 5-10 points. Sure they need to keep grinding away esp due to vote counting issues outlined elsewhere on the thread but they're nearly there
Re: TX, if you made me predict it I'd probably plump for a narrow Trump win based on state history etc. But as you say, there's plenty of evidence for a left shift
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
I really hope you're right on PA!Pennsylvania : President: general election Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Six credible surveys out yesterday for PA (Survey Monkey are garbage imo) giving Biden leads of 5-10 points. Sure they need to keep grinding away esp due to vote counting issues outlined elsewhere on the thread but they're nearly there
Re: TX, if you made me predict it I'd probably plump for a narrow Trump win based on state history etc. But as you say, there's plenty of evidence for a left shift
petee
no gods, no malarkey
"The Sheriff [Bob Gualtieri] told me the persons that were dressed in these security uniforms had indicated to sheriff’s deputies that they belonged to a licensed security company and they indicated—and this has not been confirmed yet—that they were hired by the Trump campaign"
Yossarian
⏭️
Yep - they will hopefully be keeping the focus on those states, if Biden's dumb enough to repeat the exact same mistakes Clinton made in 2016 by getting giddy about his poll numbers and spending too much time focusing on expanding the Democratic map to Georgia and Arizona, while letting Trump squeak victories in the Rust Belt, then he doesn't deserve to be president of anything.
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Website not available in the UK unfortunately
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
could you please put up the text? w/site n/a in Europe.
Thanks.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
I presume you mean the ones allegedly found on a laptop that allegedly belonged to Hunter Biden? I don't think it will either- simply because the story is so damn flimsy and tendentious that most people outside of Trump's base - the cultists - will be very sceptical about it, or simply say, "so what?" There's simply not enough of a story there.
petee
no gods, no malarkey
A Trump campaign spokesperson says two men dressed as armed security guards who set up in a tent outside an early voting location in downtown St. Petersburg were not hired by the campaign.
Thea McDonald, Deputy National Press Secretary for the Trump campaign, told 8 On Your Side: “The Campaign did not hire these individuals nor did the Campaign direct them to go to the voting location.”
Julie Marcus, Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections, told 8 On Your Side the men set up a tent outside an early voting site on Wednesday and claimed to be with the Trump campaign.
“The Sheriff [Bob Gualtieri] told me the persons that were dressed in these security uniforms had indicated to sheriff’s deputies that they belonged to a licensed security company and they indicated—and this has not been confirmed yet—that they were hired by the Trump campaign,” said Marcus in a video interview with 8 On Your Side’s Chip Osowski Wednesday night.
Marcus, a Republican, is running to keep her seat as supervisor after being appointed in May of this year by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. Gualtieri, also a Republican, is running for re-election as well.
“The sheriff and I take this very seriously,” Marcus said. “Voter intimidation, deterring voters from voting, impeding a voter’s ability to cast a ballot in this election is unacceptable and will not be tolerated in any way shape, or form. So we anticipated many things going into this election. Not only cybersecurity, but physical security and we had a plan in place and executed that plan.”
In the first presidential debate last month, President Trump encouraged his supporters to go to the polls to watch what happens there.
“I’m urging my supporters to go into the polls and watch very carefully,” Trump said. “Because that’s what has to happen. I am urging them to do it.”
that's the most of it.
Thea McDonald, Deputy National Press Secretary for the Trump campaign, told 8 On Your Side: “The Campaign did not hire these individuals nor did the Campaign direct them to go to the voting location.”
Julie Marcus, Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections, told 8 On Your Side the men set up a tent outside an early voting site on Wednesday and claimed to be with the Trump campaign.
“The Sheriff [Bob Gualtieri] told me the persons that were dressed in these security uniforms had indicated to sheriff’s deputies that they belonged to a licensed security company and they indicated—and this has not been confirmed yet—that they were hired by the Trump campaign,” said Marcus in a video interview with 8 On Your Side’s Chip Osowski Wednesday night.
Marcus, a Republican, is running to keep her seat as supervisor after being appointed in May of this year by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. Gualtieri, also a Republican, is running for re-election as well.
“The sheriff and I take this very seriously,” Marcus said. “Voter intimidation, deterring voters from voting, impeding a voter’s ability to cast a ballot in this election is unacceptable and will not be tolerated in any way shape, or form. So we anticipated many things going into this election. Not only cybersecurity, but physical security and we had a plan in place and executed that plan.”
In the first presidential debate last month, President Trump encouraged his supporters to go to the polls to watch what happens there.
“I’m urging my supporters to go into the polls and watch very carefully,” Trump said. “Because that’s what has to happen. I am urging them to do it.”
that's the most of it.
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
Thanks petee
Yossarian
⏭️
It reeks more than a little of desperation for a candidate to make his opponent's son the main focus of his attacks 11 days before the election, especially when his "evidence" is a copy of a hard drive of a laptop that a blind computer store owner claims was abandoned in his store before he gave it to Rudy Giuliani - and when his own sons are Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
My impression is he's descended into pure batshit now, there's not much left of the genuine link he has with some groups of voters last time. Whether his narcissism has crossed over into something more medical no longer matters. Also, I'm not sure how much this is still a 'Biden Vs the loon' election or how much it will revert to being 'Dem v GOP', but either way Trump loses.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Think a lot of floating voters who fell (maybe understandably) for the Comey emails thing last time will be once bitten twice shy. It's such a similar setup.
bimble
floofy
Cant remember if i already posted this before but they have raised over 3 million dollars now, more every time the twat sends a tweet, it's kind of brilliant.
defeatbytweet.org
Defeat by Tweet - Using Micro-Donations for Social Justice
Defeat By Tweet. Support racial justice with micro-donations. Fund Black leaders every time 'Seditious Six' tweets. Join #DefeatMAGA to beat oppression
defeatbytweet.org
Similar threads
