US election 2020 thread

[The Octagon]

What's their aim here? I mean not stealing votes, that's obvious, but in CA?! It's not like they're going to make up any fine margins in a state that will vote for the Dems by margins of millions

Could be a tactic to somehow render the California votes as 'illegal' / dodgy in enough voters' minds, then they take away Biden's biggest Electoral college advantage and can drag the election into the Supreme Court, where they're more likely to win than in a straight election.

Chuck enough muck and make it look like everyone's dirty in California and no party can be trusted, even if they are the only ones doing it.

 

[krtek a houby]

Begging for the suburban women vote.

"So can I ask you to do me a favour? Suburban women, will you please like me? I saved your damn neighbourhood,” the president said

Trump begs suburban women to ‘like me’ in plea at rally

Eew.

No dog whistles there, eh

 

[Streathamite]

Begging for the suburban women vote.

"So can I ask you to do me a favour? Suburban women, will you please like me? I saved your damn neighbourhood,” the president said

Trump begs suburban women to ‘like me’ in plea at rally

Eew.

No dog whistles there, eh

racist wanker (Trump, not you!). Fortunately, it doesn't seem to be working

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Begging for the suburban women vote.

"So can I ask you to do me a favour? Suburban women, will you please like me? I saved your damn neighbourhood,” the president said

Trump begs suburban women to ‘like me’ in plea at rally

Eew.

No dog whistles there, eh

I hope those suburban women are asking themselves who is going to save them from Trump.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Christ.

Begging for the suburban women vote.

"So can I ask you to do me a favour? Suburban women, will you please like me? I saved your damn neighbourhood,” the president said

Trump begs suburban women to ‘like me’ in plea at rally

Eew.

No dog whistles there, eh

rambling racist gobbledygook - its like some sort of shit standup routine where you are waiting in vain for a punchline that never comes. And that's probably the most coherent he's been in months.

 

[petee]

multiply by 100, every day. just another day in trumpland.

 

[JTG]

I've voted already.

Nebraska now reporting returned ballots: Nebraska Early Voting Statistics
Nearly half of all NE requested mail ballots have been returned and the state is at 25% of its 2016 turn out already. More Rs requested mail ballots than Ds (not a surprise in NE I guess) but Ds are returning their ballots at a much faster rate. Unaffiliated voters are also voting faster than registered Republicans.

So far:
17.5m votes at least have been cast
2m in FL, 1.6m in CA & TX, 1.3m in MI, 1.1m in VA & NJ
13 states are over 20% of their 2016 total already. VT has received 35% of its 2016 total

In TX, where it is harder to obtain an absentee ballot than elsewhere, 1.2m people have voted in person already

CO, VT & CA are especially interesting as they are all mail ballot states so everyone has had a ballot sent to them by post. In each of these, Ds are still returning their ballots at a higher percentage rate than Rs. CA has the option of returning the ballot in person but the other two do not afaik.

Need to be cautious about drawing firm conclusions given we can be sure GOP voters will be voting heavily on the day but it does look very much like Democrats in particular are turning out early and that there could well be an increased turn out given these numbers of early votes are unprecedented.

More as we get it, back to the studio

 

[JimW]

More as we get it, back to the studio

No skateboarding dog? Or are they worried it might win on a late write-in surge given the other candidates.

 

[JTG]

No skateboarding dog? Or are they worried it might win on a late write-in surge given the other candidates.

The dog story is subject to a legal challenge from GOP lawyers and has been placed on hold for now

 

[Ax^]

so founder of twitter is worried about trump response



cannie remember the last time twitter tried to ban me for wishing death on someone else who was not trump

 

[JTG]

At the risk of boring you all shitless with this stuff, the Harris County (Houston) twitter feed reports around 360,000 people have voted in the first three days of early voting - polls not closed yet for the day.

1.3m voted in the county four years ago so they're over a quarter of the way to that now. 2.4m are registered to vote in the county.

HRC won Harris by 160,000 votes but lost Texas by 800,000 votes

Higher turnout? Higher Dem turnout? That could make a hefty dent in that deficit...

 

[petee]

At the risk of boring you all shitless with this stuff

oh no, plz keep it coming.

today I've seen a wave of trumpust ads on youtube, "what are they hiding", the tiredest of rhetorical tropes. the biden email gambit fizzled instantly, so this is the fallback?

 

[JTG]

oh no, plz keep it coming.

today I've seen a wave of trumpust ads on youtube, "what are they hiding", the tiredest of rhetorical tropes. the biden email gambit fizzled instantly, so this is the fallback?

Will do. I tend to obsess a bit over numbers etc rather than the tittle tattle of the campaign and seeing the early vote numbers going up and up gives me some hope that much of the Dem vote is now fireproofed against stuff like today

That said #CrookedBiden is trending on Twitter just now

 

[JTG]

Just seen this on Twitter: breakdown of crossbreaks in polling.

Ignore the fact that the final 2016 polls underestimated DT's strength(!) and look at some of the trends here.

For a start, FAR fewer undecided voters. That final 16 polling average had 13% of the electorate undecided/third party. It seems that those people either broke late for Trump or stayed home. This time around only 4% haven't decided yet. There simply aren't that many votes left to claim.

Biden has improved on HRC's showing in college degree whites and loses non-college whites by less than Clinton
DT improves a little with Hispanic voters - perhaps socially conservative Latinos who have decided he hasn't been quite as disastrous for them as they thought he may be
Black voters not much change but it'd be hard for Biden to get much more of that demographic
18-34 year olds far stronger in their support of Biden than they were of Clinton
65+ year olds have flipped and are backing Biden by more than they backed Trump in 16
Trump barely wins men and loses women heavily

Far fewer third party voters this time.

For all HRC's poll leads, she never got close to 50%. Biden is regularly polling at 50% and more

And that's why it all points to a landslide

 

[JTG]

At the risk of boring you all shitless with this stuff, the Harris County (Houston) twitter feed reports around 360,000 people have voted in the first three days of early voting - polls not closed yet for the day.

1.3m voted in the county four years ago so they're over a quarter of the way to that now. 2.4m are registered to vote in the county.

HRC won Harris by 160,000 votes but lost Texas by 800,000 votes

Higher turnout? Higher Dem turnout? That could make a hefty dent in that deficit...

In three days of early voting, nearly 400,000 people have voted in Houston. Nearly a third of 2016's total turn out. Which is one in the eye for Governor Abbott

 

[spring-peeper]

‘Army for Trump’ preps poll-watching operation, raising concerns

Some voting rights activists are concerned such encounters could escalate tensions among voters.

www.aljazeera.com

The mission, the officials said, is to capture photos and videos Republicans can use to support so-far unfounded claims that mail voting is riddled with chicanery, and to help their case if legal disputes erupt over the results of the November 3 contest between Republican incumbent Trump and his Democratic opponent Joe Biden.

The campaign is already posting material of activity it claims is suspicious, including video of a Trump campaign observer being turned away from an early voting site in Philadelphia last month. The city says monitors are welcome in polling stations on election day but are not allowed in early voting facilities.

Some voting rights activists are concerned such encounters could escalate in a tense year that has seen armed militias face off against protesters in the nation’s streets.

Poll watching by partisan observers is a normal feature in United States elections that dates back to the 18th century and is subject to various state laws and local rules.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The New Statesman's prediction has gone from just under 80% a couple of weeks or so ago, to a 88.2% chance of Biden winning.

US 2020 presidential election forecast model: will Donald Trump or Joe Biden win?

The New Statesman's model, forecasting the upcoming US presidential election.

www.newstatesman.com

 

[Streathamite]

At the risk of boring you all shitless with this stuff,

You are most certainly not doing that. Keep it coming, please, do!

 

[teqniq]

Sounds like she gave him a run for his money:

Moderator Savannah Guthrie hailed for keeping Trump in check at town hall

Today show co-host pressed president on debts, coronavirus and QAnon without letting president dominate

www.theguardian.com

...Just this week Trump shared a post from a QAnon Twitter account which claimed, baselessly, that Joe Biden had had a navy Seal team killed. Guthrie asked Trump why he had done so.

“That was a retweet! People can decide for themselves!” Trump said.

Guthrie responded: “I don’t get that. You’re the president, not someone’s crazy uncle.”...

 

[JTG]

The New Statesman's prediction has gone from just under 80% a couple of weeks or so ago, to a 88.2% chance of Biden winning.

US 2020 presidential election forecast model: will Donald Trump or Joe Biden win?

The New Statesman's model, forecasting the upcoming US presidential election.

www.newstatesman.com

LeanTossUp have had Biden at over 90% in their forecast for ages - think it's over 96% now. They're far more bolshy with their analysis (they don't believe there's any such thing as a toss up for starters - it either leans one way or the other). Have been calling TX & GA as blue for some time and being pretty smug when 538 eventually starts coming down on that side.
Take your choice with these things really. LeanTossUp claim to have called recent Canadian and UK generals correctly (wasn't following tbh).

 

[JTG]

Nice summary of the Hunter Biden story (click through to read the thread):



That crook Giuliani's daughter has endorsed Joe Biden btw

 

[JTG]

19.8m votes cast now - 4m in the last 24 hours after doing maybe 3m a day for the previous week. Over 14% of 2016's total turnout

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

electproject.github.io

CA has hit the front in terms of sheer numbers and they won't be caught from this point on! Everyone there has had a mail ballot sent to them, though they can return it in person if they wish. GA has joined the millionaire club. Reporting still pretty uneven (PA hasn't reported for a couple of days now for eg and NY doesn't start early voting until ?next week? and will presumably start reporting then.

What does all this mean? Well certainly on the cautious side, we should be wary that all this does is cannibalise the election day vote - quite a few states have opened up unprecedented access to mail in and early voting so the most enthusiastic are taking advantage of that. We'll have to see how it settles down over time and this is why watching the all-mail states (VT, CO, OR, WA, UT, CA maybe others I've forgotten) can be instructive just as a measure of enthusiasm even though none of them are really competitive.
The plus side is that the Dems getting lots of their vote out early means they can more effectively target the stragglers and undecideds to an extent that the GOP can't because their voters are keener on voting in person this time. They can thank their President for that, even though GOP strategists would love to turn their vote out early too. Enthusiasm can be contagious as well - if you see friends/family with their "I Voted" stickers well, why not go do it yourself as well? So it could have a snowball effect and draw out infrequent voters (I've seen some studies saying that first time and infrequent voters are well up this year) as well as reducing lines in some areas on the day so fewer people pack it in and go home...

ETA: the Dems also appear to have far more money than the GOP at this stage. Have seen stories about GOP ads being pulled from WI & MI which, if true, would appear to indicate they are a) on a budget and b) have lost faith in their ability to win those states. Which would mean DT has to take the narrowest possible route to the Presidency (ie absolutely has to win PA & FL or he's toast)

 

[JTG]

Carpet bombing the thread again but fuck it

Saw Nate Silver (538) make an interesting point that maybe Biden's doing so well in polls because of early voting ie people who in previous years may have failed a 'likely voter' question are being counted because they have actually voted. This would back up my point in the last post about first time and infrequent voters being well represented in the early vote analysis. Seniors are also heavily represented in the early vote and they're trending Dem this time so when they get polled they're not just 'likely' they're definite.

Likely voter questions may exclude people who didn't vote last time but are now experiencing remorse at letting Trump through so they're determined to do so this time around. But in the eyes of a pollster, they didn't vote last time so may not this time. Remember what I said about tiny numbers of don't know/undecided/third party voters?

Again I'm gonna counterpose that Republicans intend to vote in person on the day... but with Covid and it being November who knows what health/weather emergencies may prevent that?

 

[Flavour]

I retain my very strong optimism that Trump is going to be crushed. Every move he makes is chipping away at his vote. He's insane. There cannot be a single person who saw that Town Hall bullshit who has come away from it intending to vote for Trump that did not before. And plenty of uhming-and-aahing undecideds will probably just stay home rather than vote for Trump. He's roast toast, this guy.

If Texas goes blue I will do a little jump of joy

 

[two sheds]

When are the Senate elections by the way? Unless Biden can use Trump's Rule by Presidential Decree type actions he's going to be limited unless he gets a Democrat Senate.

 

[killer b]

When are the Senate elections by the way? Unless Biden can use Trump's Rule by Presidential Decree type actions he's going to be limited unless he gets a Democrat Senate.

on the same day (some of them anyway - some are halfway through the term).

It's not at all unlikely that Biden will win a landslide victory while the senate remains in Republican hands though.

 

[maomao]

When are the Senate elections by the way?

Same day.

 

[nemoanonemo]

Sounds like she gave him a run for his money:

Moderator Savannah Guthrie hailed for keeping Trump in check at town hall

Today show co-host pressed president on debts, coronavirus and QAnon without letting president dominate

www.theguardian.com

 

[Wilf]

View attachment 234553

More than that, from what I've read.

 

[JTG]

on the same day (some of them anyway - some are halfway through the term).

It's not at all unlikely that Biden will win a landslide victory while the senate remains in Republican hands though.

Yes, the Senate is the tough one, though I said upthread about the Dems having an advantage this year in that they only have one, maybe two seats they could lose and up to ten that they can attack. Some potential for outlandish results (538 is giving Al Gross a 25% chance in Alaska which is pretty high all things considered - he's running as an Independent with Dem support as Dems don't tend to do well in Alaska statewide elections).

Speculation about people voting Biden but voting for a Republican senator to maintain balance but also if Biden has 'coattails' ie people turning out just for him vote a straight Democrat ticket down ballot. Cal Cunningham in NC is outrunning Biden in the polls atm (ie he seems to have a better chance of winning his race than Biden has of winning the state) so it's a mixed picture

That said, LeanTossUp rates the chances of a Democrat clean sweep of Presidency, Senate and House as over 90% so, you know...