US election 2020 thread

[spring-peeper]

Voter intimidation

 

[spring-peeper]

Christian group launching ads charging Trump ‘used Christianity for his own purposes’

A bipartisan coalition of Christians is forming a political action committee that aims to weaken President Trump’s standing with evangelical voters.The super PAC, Not Our Faith, plans a six-fi…

thehill.com

The ad accuses the president of exploiting Christian rhetoric and iconography for self-serving purposes, specifically citing his photo opportunity outside of St. John’s Episcopal Church earlier this year after police cleared Lafayette Square with tear gas and pepper spray.


“[Christians] don’t need Trump to save them. The truth is that Trump needs Christians to save his flailing campaign,” the ad states, according to the AP.

 

[Streathamite]

Christian group launching ads charging Trump ‘used Christianity for his own purposes’

A bipartisan coalition of Christians is forming a political action committee that aims to weaken President Trump’s standing with evangelical voters.The super PAC, Not Our Faith, plans a six-fi…

thehill.com

That could be quite significant simply because Pennsylvania has always had - historically, at least - a large catholic population and a large protestant evangelical one.

 

[belboid]

The ‘if the polls are as wrong as they were in...’ columns are interesting in the NYT.

I’d want to be 5% ahead in the 2016 adjusted figures at this point, which still leaves Biden a knife-edge loser at the moment.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden

 

[tim]

I'm not certain I meant that kind of "pounding."

Sigmund Freud would have had no doubts.

 

[gosub]

 

[tim]

tbf, WaPo, CNN, CBS, ABC, the nYT and NBC all have much higher standards of reportage than nearly all UK mainstram news outlets - the possible exceptions are the beeb, the Guardian and the Times

Financial Times and The Economist are at that standard too

 

[Streathamite]

Financial Times and The Economist are at that standard too

Agreed. I see the latter as more about analysis than reportage tbh, but it's incredibly credible.

 

[Streathamite]

The ‘if the polls are as wrong as they were in...’ columns are interesting in the NYT.

I’d want to be 5% ahead in the 2016 adjusted figures at this point, which still leaves Biden a knife-edge loser at the moment.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden

It paywalls after a few seconds - can anyone post the text up here?
apols, I'm a tightfist

 

[ska invita]

A running table of all the presidential polls released today, with newest entries first:

	Pollster	Margin	Diff. from ’16 result
U.S.	Ipsos 12:16 PM ET Sept. 11-21, 2,006 adults	Biden +10 47-37	+8D
N.C.	Monmouth University 11:11 AM ET Oct. 8-11, 500 L.V.	Biden +3 50-47	+7D
Nev.	WPA Intelligence (WPAi) 10:48 AM ET Oct. 7-11, 512 L.V.	Biden +2 44-42	<1R
U.S.	Opinium 10:40 AM ET Oct. 8-12, 1,397 L.V.	Biden +17 57-40	+15D
Mo.	YouGov 10:26 AM ET Sept. 24-Oct. 7, 931 L.V.	Trump +9 43-52	+10D
Pa.	Trafalgar Group 9:12 AM ET Oct. 10-12, 1,034 L.V.	Biden +2 47-45	+3D
U.S.	IBD/TIPP 9:05 AM ET Oct. 8-12, 937 L.V.	Biden +9 51-42	+7D
Fla.	Florida Atlantic University 8:37 AM ET Oct. 9-10, 644 L.V.	Biden +4 51-47	+5D
U.S.	Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics 8:03 AM ET Sept. 25-27, 833 L.V.	Biden +3 46-43	<1D
Mich.	Morning Consult 7:46 AM ET Oct. 2-11, 1,710 L.V.	Biden +7 51-44	+7D
Minn.	Morning Consult 7:46 AM ET Oct. 2-11, 898 L.V.	Biden +6 50-44	+4D
N.C.	Morning Consult 7:46 AM ET Oct. 2-11, 1,993 L.V.	Biden +4 50-46	+8D
Ohio	Morning Consult 7:46 AM ET Oct. 2-11, 2,283 L.V.	Trump +3 46-49	+5D
Pa.	Morning Consult 7:46 AM ET Oct. 2-11, 2,610 L.V.	Biden +8 52-44	+9D
S.C.	Morning Consult 7:46 AM ET Oct. 2-11, 903 L.V.	Trump +12 42-54	+2D
Texas	Morning Consult 7:46 AM ET Oct. 2-11, 3,455 L.V.	Trump +2 47-49	+7D
U.S.	U.S.C. Dornsife 7:46 AM ET Sept. 29-Oct. 12, 5,089 L.V.	Biden +13 54-41	+11D
Wis.	Morning Consult 7:46 AM ET Oct. 2-11, 1,067 L.V.	Biden +7 51-44	+8D
Ariz.	Morning Consult 7:45 AM ET Oct. 2-11, 1,144 L.V.	Biden +3 49-46	+7D
Colo.	Morning Consult 7:45 AM ET Oct. 2-11, 837 L.V.	Biden +14 54-40	+9D
Fla.	Morning Consult 7:45 AM ET Oct. 2-11, 4,785 L.V.	Biden +5 51-46	+6D
Ga.	Morning Consult 7:45 AM ET Oct. 2-11, 1,837 L.V.	Trump +2 47-49	+3D
U.S.	Morning Consult 7:45 AM ET Oct. 9-11, 16,045 L.V.	Biden +8 51-43	+6D
U.S.	Morning Consult 7:45 AM ET Oct. 8-10, 12,000 L.V.	Biden +8 51-43	+6D
U.S.	Morning Consult 7:45 AM ET Oct. 7-9, 12,000 L.V.	Biden +8 51-43	+6D
U.S.	Morning Consult 7:44 AM ET Oct. 6-8, 12,000 L.V.	Biden +8 51-43	+6D

 

[killer b]

The Economist is a terrible magazine, and intensely partisan what the fuck are you guys on about?

 

[strung out]

It paywalls after a few seconds - can anyone post the text up here?
apols, I'm a tightfist

 

[Streathamite]

Thank you very much, Strung Out and Ska Invita

 

[Streathamite]

The Economist is a terrible magazine, and intensely partisan what the fuck are you guys on about?

I disagree with its (mostly neoliberal) partisanship, but the strength of its' analysis, and depth of breadth of coverage, means you should take it seriously, in a way one does with the WSJ, and one doesn't with any UK tabloid or Fox News.

 

[killer b]

I take it about as seriously as I take the statesman or the spectator tbh. IE not much.

 

[belboid]

It paywalls after a few seconds - can anyone post the text up here?
apols, I'm a tightfist

You can just give it a fake/unused email and read it

 

[Streathamite]

You can just give it a fake/unused email and read it

ahh...very useful to know

 

[Streathamite]

The ‘if the polls are as wrong as they were in...’ columns are interesting in the NYT.

I’d want to be 5% ahead in the 2016 adjusted figures at this point, which still leaves Biden a knife-edge loser at the moment.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden

I think one of the big differences between now and 2016, ius that then voters were voting on their worst fears of what each candidate might be like, as President. And only one of them had an actual office-holding track record to go on.
Here, those voters will be going on what Trump has actually done. That, plus COVID-19, may make all the difference.
However, I agree with the NYT that we are still all guessing blind.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

View attachment 234251
View attachment 234250

I'm a bit surprised the the Nebraska legislature allows the electoral college votes to be split. The Republican Party is firmly in control of the state and they generally don't leave something like that on the table. They could just as easily change that to lump the votes together rather than splitting it. Its certainly not to salve the feeling of the Democratic voters in the state. I've never seen any evidence they care what anyone thinks, let alone what Democratic voters think. Hell, I've seen no evidence that the Nebraska Democratic Party cares what Democratic voters think.

<edited to add>
Bitter much? LOL.

 

[petee]

hmmm ...

 

[moochedit]

hmmm ...

"Accidently"

 

[spring-peeper]

Twitter suspends accounts for posing as Black Trump supporters

Company reports spam and platform manipulation by accounts containing identical language

www.theguardian.com

Twitter has suspended a network of accounts claiming to be owned by Black supporters of Donald Trump and his re-election campaign due to spam and platform manipulation, it said Tuesday.

The company is investigating the activity and may suspend additional similar accounts if they are found to be violating its policies, a spokesperson said.

The Washington Post first reported on the investigation, citing more than a dozen accounts using identical, inauthentic language including the phrase: “YES IM BLACK AND IM VOTING FOR TRUMP!!!”

A review of some of the suspended accounts shows they often used stolen images to appear real. The accounts sometimes claimed to be owned by military veterans or members of law enforcement.

This is not the first time Twitter has had to address a spam operation claiming to be led by Black voters. NBC News also reported spam operations from fake accounts posing as Black Trump supporters in August.

Some accounts were able to attract thousands of followers before they were suspended. One tweet, for example, amassed more than 10,000 retweets before it was removed, NBC News found. Another account allegedly used a photo of a veteran who died last month to pose as a Trump supporter.

Polls show about 10% of Black voters in the US support Trump. These accounts raised suspicion for their identical language and stock image avatars.

 

[JTG]

The ‘if the polls are as wrong as they were in...’ columns are interesting in the NYT.

I’d want to be 5% ahead in the 2016 adjusted figures at this point, which still leaves Biden a knife-edge loser at the moment.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden

Thing is, the polls weren't that off in 2016. Just a normal sized polling error (ie within the MOE). DT beat his polls by a couple of points in a handful of states that HC hadn't bothered paying much attention to and he was President. There's always room for improvement but the "polls were wrong" narrative just doesn't really stand up to much.

 

[two sheds]

Trump claiming that "Biden's shot" at his rally. Hadn't really thought about it before but with his supporters believing everything he says it's going to be a real shock for them if he loses - feeding into the 'the dems stole it' narrative and making violence even more likely.

 

[krtek a houby]

Trump claiming that "Biden's shot" at his rally. Hadn't really thought about it before but with his supporters believing everything he says it's going to be a real shock for them if he loses - feeding into the 'the dems stole it' narrative and making violence even more likely.

Oh, the narrative has been laid down. Whoever "wins", we shall see violence.

 

[JTG]

Quick update on those Texas voter suppression efforts:



Harris County is basically Houston. In 2016 1.3m votes were cast there which broke 54-42 to Clinton

 

[not-bono-ever]

vote early, vote often

 

[JTG]

Suspect that given the widespread assumption that GOP chicanery is going to suppress the votes of heavily Dem counties like Harris it's more a case of "vote early or not at all"

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Suspect that given the widespread assumption that GOP chicanery is going to suppress the votes of heavily Dem counties like Harris it's more a case of "vote early or not at all"

I've voted already.

 

[skyscraper101]

Was Clinton ahead in the swing states by this much margin last time? I can't remember. It does feel markedly different anyway.