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US election 2020 thread

petee said:
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Yes he will.
 
I would think voter turnout will be up this year due to C19 related unemployment as well as the perceived importance of this election. Queues to vote are always a thing in the US and they work the longest hours in the western world so maybe the current situation will reflect itself in the turnout.

Would need to be a massive increase (by 25% ish) on previous years or a massive landslide to stand a chance of more people voting for the winner than not voting though.
 
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This is from about a week ago but not a good omen for Trump. Ben Shapiro bitching about him and ready to start blaming him for a Republican defeat by the look of it:
 
pinkmonkey said:
It blows my mind how being slighty more right wing that the lib dems would = commie in the States. It reminds me of being about 7 and the slur of choice in the playground was fascist. None of us knew what it meant.
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Hard to believe that he's been described as communist/socialist/ Marxist etc.

Mostly by the online right wing Americans, but do wonder is it fear, ignorance or trolling on their part?
 
If Trump does lose (and I'm far from convinced he will) I reckon the Repubs will drop him fast. The problem with operating on a scorched earth policy is that you make a lot of enemies. He's been tolerated for a while now because he's perceived as a winner. If he's loses he won't have a friend left in his own party. Rats from a sinking ship.
 
Teaboy said:
If Trump does lose (and I'm far from convinced he will) I reckon the Repubs will drop him fast. The problem with operating on a scorched earth policy is that you make a lot of enemies. He's been tolerated for a while now because he's perceived as a winner. If he's loses he won't have a friend left in his own party. Rats from a sinking ship.
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If he doesn't get to be President he won't have any interest in being involved with them anyway. I doubt he's interested in any other position and he hardly needs the consultancy jobs or directorships.
 
Monkeygrinder's Organ said:
If he doesn't get to be President he won't have any interest in being involved with them anyway. I doubt he's interested in any other position and he hardly needs the consultancy jobs or directorships.
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No but he ain't going to just slip away is he. He's going to kick up a massive storm but he might well find that he suddenly doesn't have any friends around him.
 
It was the Democrats under Obama and Biden who brought in a Mitt Romney/Heritage Foundation healthcare plan and did nothing but try and reach out to Republicans. Biden talks about bringing Democrats and Republicans together but it's only ever to to please the Republicans. Democrats like Biden talk alot of compromise, which usually means: more war, deregulation of Wall St, and cutting taxes for the rich. This is why Biden was bragging in the Senate about trying to cut a deal with Republicans to cut social security and Medicaid - that's what people like Biden mean by bi-partisanship.

How anyone can call that radical left or socialist is beyond me - but we are talking about the far-right here.
 
Teaboy said:
No but he ain't going to just slip away is he. He's going to kick up a massive storm but he might well find that he suddenly doesn't have any friends around him.
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Well I think he'll try and rally the Republicans as long as he thinks he can overturn the election result. If it gets past that point though I agree they'll be happy to bin him off but I think he'll do the same. He doesn't need the party to whip up a media storm and I doubt he has any real desire to remain in politics if he's not at the top.
 
Teaboy said:
No but he ain't going to just slip away is he. He's going to kick up a massive storm but he might well find that he suddenly doesn't have any friends around him.
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Well theres no more episodes of Tiger King for our second lockdown, so I for one welcome the final series of Covid King. He's never going to financially recover from this!
 
spring-peeper said:
Trump was losing in the polls last time.

Then Clinton's email scandal was announced. The voters had had enough scandals from her, and voted Trump.

I think Trump is hoping for something similar this time. He is really pushing Barr to find dirt on Biden.
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Trump was certainly losing in the polls last time - and let's not forget he lost the popular vote by 2% so the polls weren't entirely wrong. In order to get on the right side of the Electoral College, Biden needs to be north of 4/5% ahead nationally - probably.

The Comey Letter came out a week or so before the election and probably/maybe had a net effect of a 3/4 point shift in the polls towards Trump. Which was enough for him to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan by the miniscule amounts he did (like, half a percentage point) and thus the election.

Just now, Biden has a +/- 10 point lead in the polls with very very few voters showing as undecided and early voting turnout through the roof (see below) so a lot of that advantage is getting more baked in by the day. Biden may be a crap candidate but he's not widely disliked in the same way HC was, Trump is no longer an insurgent candidate but a President with a four year record of shit approval ratings and a disastrous pandemic response behind him.

What I'm saying really is that it's incredibly hard to imagine what kind of scandal could emerge that would shift the polls by twice as much as the Comey Letter did, with a less dislikeable candidate against an incumbent President with a crappy record and millions of votes already either in the bank or winging their way to election offices as we speak.

two sheds said:
Depends how many of them actually got to vote but yes hopefully.
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129,041 in person early votes were recorded yesterday in Georgia according to @ElectProject on Twitter. Over 600k mail in & in person early votes have been received in the state as of last night

maomao said:
I would think voter turnout will be up this year due to C19 related unemployment as well as the perceived importance of this election. Queues to vote are always a thing in the US and they work the longest hours in the western world so maybe the current situation will reflect itself in the turnout.

Would need to be a massive increase (by 25% ish) on previous years or a massive landslide to stand a chance of more people voting for the winner than not voting though.
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Look here: 2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics
As of yesterday, at least 10.5m people have voted in the election thus far, which is 7.6% of the 2016 turn out. "At least" because not all states are very good at reporting their numbers (New York!). The early voting numbers are up enormously over last time (in his Sunday report on that site the comparison is 9.3m votes vs 1.4m at the same stage four years ago). Wyoming, Virginia, Wisconsin, South Dakota and Vermont have all passed 20% of the total 2016 turn out already and Michigan is nearly there as well. Florida is at 17% of 2016 turn out and over 1.6m people have voted in the state.
Where it's possible to analyse who is voting (again, not all states record D/R registration etc), early turn out is overwhelmingly Democratic - a change on the usual state of affairs in which Republicans vote more by mail and Dems show up on the day. Early in person and mail in voting has been made much easier in general and Dems have been pushing hard on it.
It's not possible to say absolutely whether turn out will be up this time but based on all of these numbers it would be incredibly surprising if that wasn't the case. Certainly it looks like Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida are fired up and voting heavily.

Incidentally, Florida started counting votes yesterday. This varies from one state to another but very few states leave their early votes untouched until the day itself - most will at least start the verification process in advance. Undoubtedly a high turn out and heavy mail in vote will lead to delays in counting but it's gonna vary from one state to another

Lots of people on the thread reading 538. Personally I prefer Lean Tossup for feistier articles and frankly, more definitive forecasts. In their view the election's pretty much over bar the counting and I find it hard to go against that tbh.

Remember, all Biden has to do is hold the Clinton 16 states (he will, easily) and overturn miniscule deficits in MI, WI and PA (he will) and he's President. The fact that he also has a very good, or at least reasonable, chance of winning AZ, FL, TX, NC, GA, OH, IA and the second congressional districts of Nebraska and Maine, all of which he is either ahead in or at least tied, says to me that he's going to win and very possibly win big. The bigger he wins, the harder it will be for any kind of legal or political shenanigans to turn that around
 
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bimble said:
Why does trump think that holding a load of rallies will help his chances of reelection - there's not likely to be anyone at them who isn't already amongst the converted is there? Or maybe he just loves holding rallies and its not a strategy more of an indulgence.
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I think there's another angle to this.

Corbyn held lots of well attended rallies by UK standards, and rightly so. He was fairly good at it, but could've been better I think.

There's a long tradition of speaking on the proverbial soap box, in plain language, directly to the public. Over the years that culture has waned, but IMO Trump has tapped into something that still has a lot of power, and its something that the left should be a lot better at.

Theres a lot to be said for a barnstorming speech, and a lot to be said for being able to talk in a way that people understand and relate to. The left especially is too often unable to talk in simple terms and spread its message.

Nowadays internet videos are a key way to do this, but again I think the left is still no where near good enough at this. Labour Party videos last election were all pretty crap and uninspiring I thought.

I don't think the rallies are a waste of time for Trump, they're energising and evangelical and have him connecting directly with people in a positive manner <that's the heart of electoral politics. People sneer at Trump for being a terrible speaker - certainly he is a serial liar- but I think that's massively misunderstanding his effectiveness.
 
ska invita said:
I think there's another angle to this.

Corbyn held lots of well attended rallies by UK standards, and rightly so. He was fairly good at it, but could've been better I think.

There's a long tradition of speaking on the proverbial soap box, in plain language, directly to the public. Over the years that culture has waned, but IMO Trump has tapped into something that still has a lot of power, and its something that the left should be a lot better at.

Theres a lot to be said for a barnstorming speech, and a lot to be said for being able to talk in a way that people understand and relate to. The left especially is too often unable to talk in simple terms and spread its message.

Nowadays internet videos are a key way to do this, but again I think the left is still no where near good enough at this. Labour Party videos last election were all pretty crap and uninspiring I thought.

I don't think the rallies are a waste of time for Trump, they're energising and evangelical and have him connecting directly with people in a positive manner <that's the heart of electoral politics. People sneer at Trump for being a terrible speaker - certainly he is a serial liar- but I think that's massively misunderstanding his effectiveness.
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Yeah, the 2017 election rallies Corbyn held, and the momentum they created were definitely a key part of the unexpected Labour rally that year. Difficult to be able to tell how much, but it was there - and last years election being held in December more or less nixed any chance of being able to mobilise that kind of energy again (I doubt it would have helped that much as it was far from the only difference, but.).
 
bimble said:
Yep. And if you watch bits of these extravaganzas the audience obviously find it really entertaining, he’s a showman.
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hes not a dazzling intellect, but that makes him more a man of the people
amazingly even etonian De Piffle comes across more as a man of the people than Starmer - he at least uses colloquial phrases (wack a mole or whatever ) in amongst the archaic turns of phrase
and as for Trumps speeches, the fact is the mainstream media is fake news, washington is a swamp, on many issues he's telling it straight in a way Labour party MPs are in the vast majority far too cowed to do - thats not just showmanship
 
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