Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

US election 2020 thread

Popbitch would never lie to me

I can't see the 1.2 billion in there though! I have a smug brother who thinks he's caught me out on not checking my facts to nail down here, I need the figure in black and white damnit.
 
They don’t seem especially vulnerable to have access to thousands of dollars and lawyers. Delusional, definitely. But so is Trump himself.
Lots of vulnerable people have money - what about all those grannies that get conned out of their life savings each year? This isn't much different, except they were conned twice.
 
This says that the people who lost money betting that trump would win are almost exclusively Europeans / Brits because Americans are not allowed to bet on elections. So you have a few Brits moaning about how they are going to sue somebody to get their 50 grand back or else they still believe trump will be the winner. because they are still listening to people like Lin Wood & Sidney Powell. :facepalm:
I wonder how Marty is doing.
They Bet Big on Trump. Now They Claim Fraud.
 
Betfair should not have been allowed to take those bets tbf. Its exploiting vulnerable people.
sure, but taking bets after the result is even dodgier than usual.
Lots of vulnerable people have money - what about all those grannies that get conned out of their life savings each year? This isn't much different, except they were conned twice.

I don't think you have a clue what you are talking about or understand the concept of what Betfair do. Betfair, while being a bunch of cunts (but not in particular for this) are an Exchange. This means they allow people to bet against each other (not against Betfair, though you can do that on their sportsbook, but this was on the exchanges) while taking a percentage for doing so.

Like Trump, you don't know where the winning line was for this. Betfair were clear in their instructions.

This was their statement on Nov 5th.

Ordinarily in a US election, a result declaration from various news networks would be followed by a concession speech by the losing candidate.

This would trigger the settlement of the remaining Betfair markets. It's what happened in 2008, 2012 and 2016.

As you know - and as was widely predicted - 2020 is no ordinary election! One reason for this is the turnout which looks set to be the highest for over a century. This means it's taking longer to count the votes, especially in swing states.

Another factor is the possibility that the losing candidate may challenge the results in the courts.

We will only settle the markets when there is certainty around which candidate has the most projected Electoral College votes.

Before settling the markets, we must therefore wait for clarity around ongoing vote counts, recounts and any potential legal challenges to the results.

And the 27th

Nov 27, Update


An update on settlement of the US election markets on the Betfair Exchange (Friday, 5pm).

We have not settled certain markets on the Betfair Exchange relating to the U.S. election because of the uncertainty about the outcome of the results caused by ongoing recounts and potential legal challenges.

Given our responsibility to both backers and layers to ensure that the markets are settled correctly and given the unprecedented amount of money that has been traded on these markets, we have sought advice from leading U.S. lawyers to determine the appropriate time to settle the markets.

We currently anticipate that we will wait until the outcome of the Electoral College votes on 14 December 2020 is known before we settle the markets. This, of course, assumes that there is no conclusive outcome before this date.

The Exchange was briefly suspended at [17:00] this afternoon (Nov 27) to clear unmatched bets. It has now reopened for customers to trade their positions.

And finally on Dec 15th

Dec 15, Update
The Electoral College formally cast its votes on December 14 and this enabled us to settle the remaining Betfair Exchange markets on the US election.

The Next President market rules stipulated that we would settle the market on the candidate that had the most projected Electoral College votes.

Following the Electoral College votes being cast, that candidate is clearly Joe Biden.

Thanks for your patience.


While a market is not settled, it's not unusual at all for bets to still be taken.

All they were doing was allowing people like Marty1 to have their chance at winning money on their hunch that Trump's idiocy would still win the day. And they were betting against people who thought the opposite. A lot of people on this and the other Trump threads could have made a lot of money laying odds against Trump's supporters idiocy.

People betting on Trump's idiocy thought like this.

I watched the hearings of Rudy Guiliani and Jenna Ellis for ballot fraud, I listed [sic] to Sidney Powell and Lin Wood for the election fraud,” she said, in reference to conspiratorial lawyers arguing in Trump’s favor. “It looked very, very likely from the day of the election like it was fraud and as more info came out, I was more convinced of the win. Which is why I have such a large amount riding on it.”

“I figured it would be either a void election and get my money back or it would be a Trump win via the terms of the 12th Amendment,” Helen, the Amsterdam woman said. “Either way Trump will be inaugurated on 20th January and I expect Betfair to pay out accordingly.”

In other words, they thought they were the ones exploiting something, that they were having a free bet.

And you choose this hill to die on killer b?

Weird.
 
You seem to be quite angry with me at the moment. What's up?

I literally have no idea what you are talking about. I've just explained to you how Betfair works and why you are wrong in your opinions expressed in your last few posts. Can you link to any anger I've expressed towards you?
 
I don't care what mechanism a bookies uses, it's allowing bets, and making money on those bets, on a non-existent contest. the people making those bets have been misled, and the bookies is exploiting them. I don't need to know how betfair works to know that, why would I?
 
Meanwhile, on the new favourite tv channel for the true trumpers, freshly pardoned Q-propagandist General Flynn is telling people that there would be nothing at all wrong with donald trump declaring a spot of martial law, then forcing a fresh elections in the states that he needed to win.

It is kind of exhausting the never ending question of is this person crazy now (does he really believe what he's saying) or is he participating in the spectacle for some understandable reason like wanting more money / power.
 
I don't care what mechanism a bookies uses, it's allowing bets, and making money on those bets, on a non-existent contest. the people making those bets have been misled, and the bookies is exploiting them. I don't need to know how betfair works to know that, why would I?

Sigh. Ok. So you can't link to any anger I've expressed towards you (because I haven't. Indeed, my last interaction with you was to 'like' one of your posts of beautiful photographs.)

You need to know how Betfair works before you start criticizing them for something they haven't done. The contest, as explained in their rules, was not 'non-existent'.

Besides that, you keep sticking up for rich people who believe in Lin Woods' madness. That's up to you. It doesn't make me angry. It makes me laugh.
 
Meanwhile, on the new favourite tv channel for the true trumpers, freshly pardoned Q-propagandist General Flynn is telling people that there would be nothing at all wrong with donald trump declaring a spot of martial law, then forcing a fresh elections in the states that he needed to win.

It is kind of exhausting the never ending question of is this person crazy now (does he really believe what he's saying) or is he participating in the spectacle for some understandable reason like wanting more money / power.

It's just fantasizing isn't it? A variation on the same theme as the Trumpaloons who sent in their 'alternative' slate of EC votes. The one thing they desperately want to happen is never going to happen and the one thing they are equally desperate to not happen is happening before their eyes. So they spout ever more stupid shit in the ever more delusional belief it could happen. It's like praying (which I'm sure they're doing a lot of), reality isn't what you want so beg the all-powerful sky fairy for help.
As for Flynn I reckon he at least partly believes it, If his Wikipedia entry is to be believed he left the military under something of a cloud.

On April 30, 2014, Flynn announced his retirement effective later that year, about a year earlier than he had been scheduled to leave his position. He was reportedly effectively forced out of the DIA after clashing with superiors over his allegedly chaotic management style and vision for the agency.[51][52][53][54] In a private e-mail that was leaked online, Colin Powell said he had heard in the DIA (apparently from later DIA director Vincent R. Stewart) that Flynn was fired because he was "abusive with staff, didn't listen, worked against policy, bad management, etc."[53] According to The New York Times, Flynn exhibited a loose relationship with the truth, leading his subordinates to refer to Flynn's repeated dubious assertions as "Flynn facts".
 
Besides that, you keep sticking up for rich people who believe in Lin Woods' madness. That's up to you. It doesn't make me angry. It makes me laugh.
I'm not sticking up for anyone. I'm commenting on the morality of a bookies that allows people - even people we don't like - to bet a hundred thousand dollars on a contest that's already been decided. It's wrong and shouldn't be allowed.
 
I agree that Betfair should have closed their exchange with respect to the contest as soon as it became apparent that there was a shitstorm developing. Doubly so given the fact that they were so unsure what constitutes a win that they had to consult lawyers — needing to consult lawyers is never a good sign that things are transparent and fair. They didn’t have to settle the bets themselves, just refuse to take more bets.
 
Lots of vulnerable people have money - what about all those grannies that get conned out of their life savings each year? This isn't much different, except they were conned twice.

I se it as quite different. They through avarus, had to make a proactive choice to take this bet. Yeah I know gambling addiction is a real thing and destroys lives but just going on the info we know. . This is mor like they went up to the dodgy market stall selling the fake Rolex, bought one and are now complaining they've spent 200 quid on rubbish.


These aren't particularly unusual things for people to do and aren't necessarily a sign of vunribility. Rich and poor people lose daft bets all the time.

Probably not worth having a row about but just couldn't let the conned grannie thing pass.
 
whatever. a con is a con, and they've been conned.
Not by the bookie, though. The bookie hasn't withheld any information here or presented false information, and it is a particular position to think that the court cases will succeed and the result will be overturned. I'm pretty anti-bookies generally, and they could have closed this particular book just to stop fanning the flames generally, but there was a logic to keeping it open.

The conman here is Trump.
 
The bets sound legitimate enough, though it probably was unethical to take money off people deluded enough to believe Giuliani etc. - the election that technically determined who the next president will be was the Electoral College one, not the Nov. 3 popular vote, what these people were really betting on was whether Trump would be able to use Supreme Court challenges etc. to overturn results in a few swing states.

It was a longshot bet, but I definitely wouldn't have been confident enough in a conservative-dominated Supreme Court ruling against the Trump side to have bet thousands of pounds on a Biden win post-Election Day.
 
Back
Top Bottom