US election 2020 thread

[Raheem]

Journey were Don't Stop Believing, which also works.

 

[Wilf]

The final countdown was Europe. Doctor Carrot

Sleaford Mods have it as 'the final countdown, by fucking journey'. Just saying.

 

[Wilf]

Yeah I changed it. It was actually a bit too niche a joke for any Sleaford mods fans reading.

Curses!

 

[Raheem]

Sleaford Mods have it as 'the final countdown, by fucking journey'. Just saying.

Well, they'd be torn to pieces on Urban, then.

 

[JTG]

I think the real point here, as everywhere, is that Biden was obviously a shit candidate and most everyone that voted for him was still holding their nose as they did it, and lots of people flat out refused, 25% of people still didn't vote, and many people will have voted Trump just out of spite because they hated Biden as a pick.

Don't disagree with much of that but winning an election on the highest turnout in 120 years doesn't suggest to me that abstentions were as much of a factor as they clearly were for Clinton for example

 

[Wilf]

By the by JTG , your analysis of the pro-Biden drift in the PA late votes looks to be very much happening/

 

[ska invita]

Bear in mind one other thing. Rich black people voting Republican for the same reasons that rich white people do. It's not all just about race.

yes i know that - why did the vote as a block nearly double though? if it was younger black voters these are less likely to be wealthy
the only answer we have that isnt speculation is "they didn’t always like Trump’s policies, they liked his strong demeanor and defiance of the establishment. "

 

[JTG]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution reckons 51k votes left in GA. Nate quote tweets their guy here but the AJC itself is one of those amazing US sites that says "oh you live in Europe, cba with the GDPR, soz"

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Don't disagree with much of that but winning an election on the highest turnout in 120 years doesn't suggest to me that abstentions were as much of a factor as they clearly were for Clinton for example

Yep and given the record turnout, we shouldn't be surprised that Trump's numbers went up as well.

While I fully endorse everything said about Biden being a shit candidate, I'm not convinced anybody else would have fared that much better. Covid clearly wasn't much of an issue, and by fuck Biden did his best to make it one, so really you're just left with the usual shitstorm of Republican cuntiness wrt actual policy - deregulation and removal of environmental protections/climate change action, stuffing courts full of mad conservatives, doing nothing to improve health care, etc.

I think Bernie Sanders would have made a 100 times better president, but I'm not sure he would have fared any better in the polls. At the end of the day, a win is a win, and winning against the incumbent is never easy, particularly when that incumbent is Republican and has voter suppression on his side.

 

[JTG]

Yep and given the record turnout, we shouldn't be surprised that Trump's numbers went up as well.

While I fully endorse everything said about Biden being a shit candidate, I'm not convinced anybody else would have fared that much better. Covid clearly wasn't much of an issue, and by fuck Biden did his best to make it one, so really you're just left with the usual shitstorm of Republican cuntiness wrt actual policy - deregulation and removal of environmental protections/climate change action, stuffing courts full of mad conservatives, doing nothing to improve health care, etc.

I think Bernie Sanders would have made a 100 times better president, but I'm not sure he would have fared any better in the polls. At the end of the day, a win is a win, and winning against the incumbent is never easy, particularly when that incumbent is Republican and has voter suppression on his side.

In terms of analysing the election result I'm not sure that it goes deeper than two motivated sides, a snowball effect of early voting causing more people to vote early and from home driving turnout ever higher and at the end of it all slightly more people think Trump's a massive cunt than don't.

The politics of it you can talk about for hours but that's what I think affected the numbers more than anything

 

[Wilf]

With the senate presumably staying GOP, the chances of any constitutional changes around the EC or federal level interventions to stop voter suppression are round about 0%?

 

[Lord Camomile]

Ok, normally I hate "I can't breathe" as rampant overkill, but I genuinely had a coughing fit

<edit: WITH SPECIFIC REFERENCE TO LAUGHING, before people think I'm some All Lives Matter white supremacist >

 

[Sweet FA]

* trucks set up to produce as much black smoke as they can, usually with a couple of pipes behind the passenger compartment.

aka 'rolling coal'

 

[Sue]

Ok, normally I hate "I can't breathe" as rampant overkill, but I genuinely had a coughing fit

<edit: WITH SPECIFIC REFERENCE TO LAUGHING, before people think I'm some All Lives Matter white supremacist >

What an absolute numpty.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

yes i know that - why did the vote as a block nearly double though? if it was younger black voters these are less likely to be wealthy
the only answer we have that isnt speculation is "they didn’t always like Trump’s policies, they liked his strong demeanor and defiance of the establishment. "

Maybe. But it's still relatively small numbers - around 10% of black voters voting Republican is about normal in recent times; if it was 12% this time, that's not a big shift. If I were a Democrat, I'd be more worried about the way that poorer white people continue to vote majority Republican.

 

[JTG]

So, Pennsylvania:

• 164k in it
• >460k left to count
• at least 116k in Philadelphia
• Philly mail ballots have been splitting to Biden by 9-1
• Treat estimates of remaining ballot numbers with caution, all sorts of estimates are applied. Not done till they're done

 

[Sue]

* trucks set up to produce as much black smoke as they can, usually with a couple of pipes behind the passenger compartment.

Genuine question -- why would anyone do that?

 

[JTG]

With the senate presumably staying GOP, the chances of any constitutional changes around the EC or federal level interventions to stop voter suppression are round about 0%?

It may not. There is a genuine chance of two Georgia run off elections in January making it effectively a single state poll on who controls the legislature

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

Genuine question -- why would anyone do that?

Its a giant FU to liberals and environmentalists. We held an environmental conference here that included a walk from the meeting place to the state capitol building and we were met by about a dozen of these trucks racing around shouting shit at us.

 

[JTG]

Georgia:


'Cured' ballots are ones that had an issue (signatures don't match or whatever) but the voter has been able to rectify this. They are nothing to do with the bonkers spiritual advisor woman

 

[JTG]

Incidentally, Joe Biden is now ahead in Michigan by 150k votes and almost three percentage points. Close - but not that close in the end

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Its a giant FU to liberals and environmentalists. We held an environmental conference here that included a walk from the meeting place to the state capitol building and we were met by about a dozen of these trucks racing around shouting shit at us.

What a world.

 

[JTG]

In terms of analysing the election result I'm not sure that it goes deeper than two motivated sides, a snowball effect of early voting causing more people to vote early and from home driving turnout ever higher and at the end of it all slightly more people think Trump's a massive cunt than don't.

The politics of it you can talk about for hours but that's what I think affected the numbers more than anything

And linking this with my Michigan comment in the last post - around 100k more people turned out in Detroit this time than in '16. Detroit had noticeably low turn out for Clinton and effectively cost her the state

 

[smokedout]

.....what about the targeting of Black LIves Matter, and Trumps support for white supremacy? How did that message not get through and the other one did?

A small c conservative religious constituency perhaps, who don't like the riots, calls to defund the police, forcus on LGBT etc, black cops/screws feeling forced to pick a side, black business owners panicking about communism? I don't know btw, I know little of the demographics but it doesn't seem implausible BLM could cause a small conservative backlash in the context of the Black vote overall being so anti-Trump.

 

[Flavour]

Getting a bit impatient with this shit now. Come on Pennslyvania, fucking sort it out.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Trump's lead in Pennsylvania has just moved again from 164.5k to 142.5k, down another 22k.

 

[brogdale]

CAPS LOCK unhinged!

 

[gentlegreen]

beat me to it
How is this man allowed into ANY employment situation ?

 

[platinumsage]

A small c conservative religious constituency perhaps, who don't like the riots, calls to defund the police, forcus on LGBT etc, black cops/screws feeling forced to pick a side, black business owners panicking about communism? I don't know btw, I know little of the demographics but it doesn't seem implausible BLM could cause a small conservative backlash in the context of the Black vote overall being so anti-Trump.

Who'd have thunk that not all black people or latino people think that being black or latino is the only thing that should determine how they vote? Some might care more about taxes or abortion than what someone says about the police.

 

[moochedit]

beat me to it
How is this man allowed into ANY employment situation ?

Inherited money from Daddy.