US election 2020 thread
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MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
"Prayer The Last Refuge of The Scoundrel" -- Lisa Simpson
teqniq
DisMembered
What is this vacuous drivel?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Where is that from? NYT says 200,000. Guardian says 100,000.
Where are you getting that from? NYT have got 96% reporting which equals way more than 25k votes
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
Where has that 25k figure come from?
Both the NY Times & CNN seem to think it's 200k.
ska invita
back on the other side
Ive yet to see a good explanation as to why the black vote went up for Trump......if anyone ever comes across a good link or theory please tag me (threads are too fast moving to read it all)
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Either of which could do a better job than Trump
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
he had a few rich rappers shilling for him on the basis that he won’t be stealing all their money with taxes. Might have influenced a few people.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
I mean instead of 'found' you could just say 'counted'. It's not that suprising to find votes at a vote counting centre.
Panic not!
From here:
but in the comments someone clarifies that this is the number left to COUNT, however there are counted votes that haven’t been REPORTED yet. Which is the discrepancy, so still looking good
"Processed" can mean verification, matching signatures etc etc, not counting. So it may mean just 25,000 left to prepare for the counting stage
bimble
floofy
I think this is likely explanation, the trump campaign's been pushing very hard for months on the idea that biden and the Radical Left will take away all of your money in taxes, not particularly targeted at voters of colour just simple self interest (and believing the message about taxes) will have swayed a lot of people.
Flavour
hang the bankers
Yeah cos black people just vote based on what rappers say, innit?
This sort of nuanced and impartial analysis is really useful .
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Bear in mind that it has changed a little from a tiny number. Support for Democrats fell from 82% to 80% among black men, from 94% to 91% among black women, according to polls. That still means that six out of every seven black voters voted Democrat.
Black men drifted from Democrats toward Trump in record numbers, polls show
I'm not sure that needs a grand theory.
ska invita
back on the other side
This was written in mid October: Trump Is Losing Ground With White Voters But Gaining Among Black And Hispanic Americans
" While older Black voters look as if they’ll vote for Biden by margins similar to Clinton’s in 2016, Trump’s support among young Black voters (18 to 44) has jumped from around 10 percent in 2016 to 21 percent in UCLA Nationscape’s polling. Black voters remain an overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning constituency, but a notable reduction in their support could still be a problem for Biden.
Notably, young Black voters don’t seem to feel as negatively about Trump as older Black Americans do. For instance, an early-July African American Research Collaborative poll of battleground states found that 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-old Black adults agreed that although they didn’t always like Trump’s policies, they liked his strong demeanor and defiance of the establishment. Conversely, just 10 percent of those 60 and older said the same.
It’s a similar story with younger Hispanic Americans, a group where Trump has also made gains. According to UCLA Nationscape’s polling, Trump is attracting 35 percent of Hispanic voters under age 45, up from the 22 percent who backed him four years ago in the CCES data.
Most notably, even though Trump stands to gain with nonwhite voters across the board, his support seems to have risen the most among Hispanic voters with a four-year college degree. We don’t want to overstate the influence of this group — they make up about 2 percent of the population age 25 and older nationwide — but they are disproportionately concentrated in one especially vital swing state: Florida. In fact, 24 percent of Hispanic Floridians have a college degree, compared to 16 percent of Hispanic adults nationally.4 So even if Trump isn’t doing as well among older white voters, his gains among Hispanic voters, including highly educated ones, could offer a path to victory in the Sunshine State.
One last point on where Trump has made gains among Black and Hispanic voters: He has done particularly well with Black and Hispanic men, which might speak to how his campaign has actively courted them. For instance, the Republican National Convention featured a number of Black men as speakers this year. And Politico talked with more than 20 Democratic strategists, lawmakers, pollsters and activists who explained that many Black and Latino men are open to supporting Trump as they think the Democratic Party has taken them for granted. The same can’t be said of Black and Hispanic women, though, and the gender gap among nonwhite voters is shaping up to be even bigger than it was in 2016. Ninety percent of Black women supported Biden in UCLA Nationscape polling — unsurprising, as this group is arguably the most staunchly Democratic demographic in the electorate — whereas less than 80 percent of Black men did the same. And among Hispanic voters, 64 percent of women backed Biden compared to 57 percent of men.
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within the context of BLM in 2020 that is amazing to me
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a reminder of the jump, based on exit polls
" While older Black voters look as if they’ll vote for Biden by margins similar to Clinton’s in 2016, Trump’s support among young Black voters (18 to 44) has jumped from around 10 percent in 2016 to 21 percent in UCLA Nationscape’s polling. Black voters remain an overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning constituency, but a notable reduction in their support could still be a problem for Biden.
Notably, young Black voters don’t seem to feel as negatively about Trump as older Black Americans do. For instance, an early-July African American Research Collaborative poll of battleground states found that 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-old Black adults agreed that although they didn’t always like Trump’s policies, they liked his strong demeanor and defiance of the establishment. Conversely, just 10 percent of those 60 and older said the same.
It’s a similar story with younger Hispanic Americans, a group where Trump has also made gains. According to UCLA Nationscape’s polling, Trump is attracting 35 percent of Hispanic voters under age 45, up from the 22 percent who backed him four years ago in the CCES data.
Most notably, even though Trump stands to gain with nonwhite voters across the board, his support seems to have risen the most among Hispanic voters with a four-year college degree. We don’t want to overstate the influence of this group — they make up about 2 percent of the population age 25 and older nationwide — but they are disproportionately concentrated in one especially vital swing state: Florida. In fact, 24 percent of Hispanic Floridians have a college degree, compared to 16 percent of Hispanic adults nationally.4 So even if Trump isn’t doing as well among older white voters, his gains among Hispanic voters, including highly educated ones, could offer a path to victory in the Sunshine State.
One last point on where Trump has made gains among Black and Hispanic voters: He has done particularly well with Black and Hispanic men, which might speak to how his campaign has actively courted them. For instance, the Republican National Convention featured a number of Black men as speakers this year. And Politico talked with more than 20 Democratic strategists, lawmakers, pollsters and activists who explained that many Black and Latino men are open to supporting Trump as they think the Democratic Party has taken them for granted. The same can’t be said of Black and Hispanic women, though, and the gender gap among nonwhite voters is shaping up to be even bigger than it was in 2016. Ninety percent of Black women supported Biden in UCLA Nationscape polling — unsurprising, as this group is arguably the most staunchly Democratic demographic in the electorate — whereas less than 80 percent of Black men did the same. And among Hispanic voters, 64 percent of women backed Biden compared to 57 percent of men.
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within the context of BLM in 2020 that is amazing to me
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a reminder of the jump, based on exit polls
I think the Trump campaign targeted Black voters with a combination of misinformation about Trump being a great president with a great record on issues affecting Black Americans and real information about Joe Biden being a terrible candidate with a horrible record.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Although tbf Clinton also had a horrible record for much the same reasons as Biden.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
We need a general theory of why anyone, notwithstanding race or age or geographical location, could possibly look at the babbling cretin Trump and see a man fit for anything at all besides being ground up into chum and used as a low-grade fertiliser.
ginger_syn
Her Insanity laughs under pressure...👾
It really isn't
Makes your twitter feed feel dirty.
Idaho
blah blah blah
I think you are turning a low key point into a generalisation and then overdoing the indignation in response.
It's pretty tiresome and unnecessary as the poster made no comment on all black people, but that some young black voters might have been influenced by very public pro trump endorsements by some rappers.
Either high profile figures making comments can be influencial, or they can never be influencial. Which is it?
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