US election 2020 thread

[JimW]

Just reading a story on why the betting markets still think it'll be Trump too. Eek.

 

[Streathamite]

Or, his hardcore supporters will agree with him.

sure, they will, but that's not enough to elect him president

 

[Flavour]

How much of this press about trump potentially still winning is being written by Democrats who are trying to get the vote out?

 

[redsquirrel]

How much of this press about trump potentially still winning is being written by Democrats who are trying to get the vote out?

Or just lazy hacks that want a more exiting narrative than Biden lead still pretty much constant.

What all the pros know is that the president “under-polls.” Trump is usually 2 percent stronger than he “performs” in any given published poll. “People don’t want to admit they’re voting for Trump,” said one pollster. Bloomberg News recently ran a story saying the same thing.....

Amazing how there's no evidence for this fact that all "pros" know

A more sensible piece than the Boston Globe's

Probably the most eye-opening state poll was Fox News’s survey of Arizona, which gave Biden a healthy 9-percentage-point lead. The poll was taken in the immediate wake of the RNC, and although candidates generally poll higher right after their conventions, Fox found Trump in a worse position compared with its previous poll.2 Morning Consult appeared to confirm Biden’s upward trajectory in Arizona, releasing an Aug. 21-30 poll showing Biden up by 10. (That was a big shift from Trump’s 2-point lead there in Morning Consult’s Aug. 7-16 poll.)

None of which means that the EC system does not help Trump it does, but half (at least) of these Biden's going to lose pieces are total trash.

 

[redsquirrel]

Also worth noting that the John Ellis who wrote that Boson Globe nonsense would be the John Prescott Ellis nephew of G. H. W Bush and cousin to G. W. Bush and Jeb Bush. Someone's who's had previous "issues" with polls

On the night of the 2000 U.S. presidential election Ellis was working as a consultant for Fox News, where he analyzed data from the Voter News Service. According to an interview Ellis gave to Jane Mayer of The New Yorker magazine in 2000, he was responsible for Fox News's decisions in calling states for Gore or Bush based on statistical results from the VNS data. Fox News was the first (at 2:16 am ET) to call Florida for Bush. Ellis also admitted sharing exit-poll data with his cousins by phone. After the interview was published, Fox News Vice President John Moody admitted that Ellis had broken rules by sharing the data and said he was considering disciplinary action.

Ellis provided CBSNews.com with a copy of a letter he said he sent The New Yorker. In the letter, Ellis writes that he "did not share with [Governor Bush] any of the information that was appearing on our screens" during two afternoon phone calls. The letter says that later in the evening "as actual vote results" came in, Ellis spoke frequently with the Bushes about "what was happening" in several states. According to Ellis, other workers on the decision desk – "most of whom are registered Democrats" – were talking to the Gore campaign. Ellis says that he was ultra-scrupulous because of his relationship. "We obeyed those [rules] more strictly than any other news organization, precisely because my cousin was running for president," Ellis told USA Today.

 

[Yuwipi Woman]

I hope you both are right. I'm certainly not much of a Biden supporter, but Trump being reelected would be an even worse shitshow.

 

[petee]

 

[two sheds]

he is half way between that red and that orange isn't he

 

[petee]

fox, even

 

[two sheds]

the first half of that statement was right, mind, just the second half that shows his utter stupidity

 

[petee]

keep the momentum, put the other side on the back foot, strengthen the narrative

 

[N_igma]

Liberals are psyched for this one folks. Bring a tear to your eye so it would that we have liberals who are so committed to the cause

 

[spring-peeper]

Bump!!!

Trump campaign events in Nevada canceled, campaign co-chair says | CNN Politics

Two Trump campaign events scheduled to take place in Nevada this weekend were canceled, according to Adam Laxalt, a Nevada co-chair of Trump's campaign.

www.cnn.com

Two Trump campaign events scheduled to take place in Nevada this weekend were canceled, according to Adam Laxalt, a Nevada co-chair of Trump's campaign.

The announcement comes after The Nevada Independent reported that the Reno-Tahoe Airport Authority said that President Donald Trump's planned campaign rally for Saturday violated the state directive limiting gatherings to 50 people and that the event "may not proceed."

"Outrageous! @realDonaldTrump rally venues in NV canceled. Welcome to (Nevada Gov. Steve) Sisolak's Nevada -- home of partisan political retribution," tweeted Laxalt, who lost the 2018 gubernatorial race to Sisolak. "This is unprecedented -- to cancel an incumbent President's campaign stop inside 60 days of a major contested election in a swing state. This isn't over!"

Joe Rajchel, a spokesperson McCarran International Airport, told CNN that the campaign event the Trump campaign was advertising at the airport was never approved, and that they had not received a formal application to host the event from the company that the Trump campaign had worked with to use a hangar on airport grounds.

Trump's recent campaign events have violated state mandates put in place to stop the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. Trump's rally in North Carolina on Tuesday violated Gov. Roy Cooper's mandate that outdoor gatherings be limited to 50 people.
The President and most of his gathered supporters also did not wear masks, despite there being a statewide mask mandate in place in North Carolina. Before Tuesday's event, the Republican chairman of the local county commission where the rally was held said the President should wear a mask during his speech.

"The fact that Donald Trump was even considering holding these unsafe events in the midst of a global pandemic is just the latest example of his poor judgment and complete disregard for Nevadans' public health and safety," Nevada State Democratic Party spokeswoman Madison Mundy said in a statement.

 

[spring-peeper]

But then again..

 

[krtek a houby]

Whistleblower demoted for not downplaying Russia interference and not exaggerating "threat" of antifa and anarchists.

Trump loyalists interfered to downplay Russia election threat – whistleblower

 

[petee]

Roger Stone calls for Trump to seize total power if he loses the election

www.mediamatters.org

are we scared yet?

 

[frogwoman]

I thought roger stone was a paedo who died a few years ago? Or am I confusing him with roger Ailes?

 

[petee]

I thought roger stone was a paedo who died a few years ago? Or am I confusing him with roger Ailes?

ailes was a sex pest but not a paedo. stone sadly is still quite with us.

The last year of Roger Ailes' life was consumed by scandal

Roger Ailes led Fox News for 20 years before his ouster last summer in a sexual harassment scandal.

money.cnn.com

 

[Streathamite]

lesson one for liars; if ypu're gonna tell porkies, they have to be credible

 

[two sheds]

You also need a good memory - unless you're President and your cult followers don't care what fucking likes you tell.

 

[MickiQ]

I'm not totally convinced he isn't developing dementia, I mean he has always been a lying cunt but he seems to be struggling even with that now

 

[gosub]

Bloomberg to spend up to $100 million to beat Trump in Florida

The money would, among other things, free up Biden’s resources for other battleground states.

www.politico.com

 

[spring-peeper]

..... and we are back to Trump wanting a third term...

 

[spring-peeper]

 

[spring-peeper]

Roger Stone to Donald Trump: bring in martial law if you lose election

Trump meanwhile promises to ‘put down’ leftwing protests and says US Marshals killing Portland suspect was ‘retribution’

www.theguardian.com

Citing widely debunked claims of fraud around early voting, absentee balloting and voting by mail, Stone told Jones Trump should consider invoking the Insurrection Act and arresting the Clintons, former Senate majority leader Harry Reid, Zuckerberg, Tim Cook of Apple and “anybody else who can be proven to be involved in illegal activity”.

He also said: “The ballots in Nevada on election night should be seized by federal marshals and taken from the state. They are completely corrupted. No votes should be counted from the state of Nevada if that turns out to be the provable case. Send federal marshals to the Clark county board of elections, Mr President!”

 

[existentialist]

Roger Stone to Donald Trump: bring in martial law if you lose election

Trump meanwhile promises to ‘put down’ leftwing protests and says US Marshals killing Portland suspect was ‘retribution’

www.theguardian.com

The guy's basically trolling, isn't he?

 

[gosub]

..... and we are back to Trump wanting a third term...

As tempting an offer as President for life is, I have a hunch that if he serves a second term it will Don Jnr's health that suffers. But the US$100mil spend on Florida by Bloomberg probably makes that redundant

 

[Nylock]

The guy's basically trolling, isn't he?

The guy who looks like a third-rate batman villain with a nixon tattoo on his back? No, that cunt's a true beleiver...

 

[existentialist]

The guy who looks like a third-rate batman villain with a nixon tattoo on his back? No, that cunt's a true beleiver...

Doesn't mean he's not a troll, too...

 

[Nylock]

Doesn't mean he's not a troll, too...

True enough, he may well be one but everything I've seen about him makes me think he's genuinely that much of a cunt and the wind-up is a by-product of his cuntery and not the end goal of it.