US election 2020 thread

[littlebabyjesus]

Yeah I am aware of that - I am just concerned that the BBC narrative seems to be overall trying to say that the "Latino" vote in certain areas have swung this - there have been various mentions of it and I am concerned that the blame is being placed incorrectly

I don't want to hear in the post-mortem that anything is being blamed with more emphasis than appropriate on a particular segement of the voter population

That's why 'latino' isn't a particularly useful group. It includes many people and their descendants who came to the US from an impoverished country with a corrupt regime in search of a better life. And it includes those who ran and benefited from said corrupt regimes who fled when they were overthrown. Diametrically opposite groups of people really - so you can 'blame' r/w Floridian latinos for voting Trump, but you also need to 'credit' Arizonan latinos for turning out for Biden.

 

[Raheem]

i think the claim might be that this is where trump got his 'new' supporters, the ones who werent there 4 yrs ago. I've heard people worrying about that same thing for a while.

As far as Florida goes, I think they also voted for him pretty solidly 4 years ago.

 

[Plumdaff]

So, just doing a bit of mouse hovering on the grauniad site, the narrowest race is Wisconsin, which Biden needs, along with Nevada and one more). Not looking good, unless the make up of the votes still to be counted in one of the trump leaning states is heavily skewed for Biden. Trump's got this hasn't he?

US election 2020 live results: Donald Trump takes on Joe Biden in tight presidential race

All eyes on the midwest as contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden hinges on a handful of states

www.theguardian.com

It is highly likely that the makeup of the uncounted votes is heavily skewed for Biden. Wisconsin flipped when they started counting the urban mail-in votes there are yet to count in Michigan and Pennsylvania. There's good reason to think Biden could still do this. It'll be very close.

 

[Epona]

For what it's worth, the coverage I was watching was hosted by two Latinx people and they were saying the same thing, but specifically about Cubans in Florida (I don't think they mentioned Venezuelans, but I might just have missed it).

So, at least from that POV, it's not "Latinx cost Biden the election", it's "Cubans (and Venezuelans) in Florida voted for Trump". There was also some discussion that this isn't the case for Latinx voters elsewhere in the States, but also that - surprise, surprise - the Democrats have taken the Latinx vote for granted and that may be working against them now.

It just worries me that in an entire nation of 300+ million white folks in the US, the blame might end up getting put on some folks who emigrated to the US from Cuba or South America, like no-one else had a say and they were the deciding factor

 

[Wilf]

No. Come on Detroit.

So, we're down to Wisconsin + Nevada + Detroit shifting the Michigan numbers as Biden's only realistic 'path'?

 

[Flavour]

Michigan. It's all there. Come on Detroit.

 

[Dogsauce]

I was aware of some conspiracy nonsense going on on WhatsApp with Latino voters, anyone know more details?

I posted an article on this a few weeks back, qanon type bollocks in Spanish language WhatsApp groups getting a lot of traction. Comparisons with Brazil, and possibly the same people behind it. Democrats not particularly aware it was going on, partly because of the language difference.

 

[bimble]

i'm feeling depressed and scared and its basically just a spectator sport for me, some people will be waking up really frightened today.

 

[iamwithnail]

So, we're down to Wisconsin + Nevada + Detroit shifting the Michigan numbers as Biden's only realistic 'path'?

Yeah, I believe there's still a lot of Atlanta votes to go, but it doesn't seem like it's enough to swing GA.

 

[Wilf]

It is highly likely that the makeup of the uncounted votes is heavily skewed for Biden. Wisconsin flipped when they started counting the urban mail-in votes there are yet to count in Michigan and Pennsylvania. There's good reason to think Biden could still do this. It'll be very close.

Ta, particularly about the Wisconsin flip (on the face of it WI was looking very close).

 

[planetgeli]

So, we're down to Wisconsin + Nevada + Detroit shifting the Michigan numbers as Biden's only realistic 'path'?

It's enough. The other path involves PA but I'm not so hopeful there. Or GA.

 

[Epona]

That's why 'latino' isn't a particularly useful group. It includes many people and their descendants who came to the US from an impoverished country with a corrupt regime in search of a better life. And it includes those who ran and benefited from said corrupt regimes who fled when they were overthrown. Diametrically opposite groups of people really - so you can 'blame' r/w Floridian latinos for voting Trump, but you also need to 'credit' Arizonan latinos for turning out for Biden.

The entire blame for this falls on the majority white folks in many areas who vote for a right wing shitbag, which is the point I was trying to make right from the start.

I was anxious about the news coverage which was trying to push that blame elsewhere, and was worried about them using terms like "Latino" as a blanket description and placing blame

 

[kabbes]

This is quite fun

Build your own US election result: plot a Biden or Trump win

Biden may be ahead in the polls, but key battlegrounds that the Democrats lost unexpectedly in 2016 could come through again for Trump. Use our simulator to build your own election result map

www.theguardian.com

I keep getting 269-269 or 270-268

 

[killer b]

The entire blame for this falls on the majority white folks in many areas who vote for a right wing shitbag, which is the point I was trying to make right from the start.

I was anxious about the news coverage which was trying to push that blame elsewhere

someone (Smokeandsteam ?) posted some exit polls upthread showing trump support up in loads of demographics, and down a little in white males (I can't find it right now though)

 

[8ball]

This is quite fun

Build your own US election result: plot a Biden or Trump win

Biden may be ahead in the polls, but key battlegrounds that the Democrats lost unexpectedly in 2016 could come through again for Trump. Use our simulator to build your own election result map

www.theguardian.com

I keep getting 269-269 or 270-268

The first one will get a bit crazy...

 

[Wilf]

Sorry, forgive the lazy bastard who has been to bed, but what about Nevada? Biden's about 0.6% up but there's 1/3 to count. Are the uncounted mail ins or on the day?

 

[killer b]

Sorry, forgive the lazy bastard who has been to bed, but what about Nevada? Biden's about 0.6% up but there's 1/3 to count. Are the uncounted mail ins or on the day?

Mail ins

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Sorry, forgive the lazy bastard who has been to bed, but what about Nevada? Biden's about 0.6% up but there's 1/3 to count. Are the uncounted mail ins or on the day?

Everything done except the late mail-ins. I'm not assuming those will be pro-Dem tbh. Could be some weired dynamic of last-minute Rep mail voting.

 

[planetgeli]

Sorry, forgive the lazy bastard who has been to bed, but what about Nevada? Biden's about 0.6% up but there's 1/3 to count. Are the uncounted mail ins or on the day?

On the day mail ins plus provisionals

 

[planetgeli]

Everything done except the late mail-ins. I'm not assuming those will be pro-Dem tbh. Could be some weired dynamic of last-minute Rep mail voting.

They don't have to be pro-Dem, 50/50 would do. And mail ballots have favoured Dem so far.

 

[Wilf]

Mail ins

So... I suspect the truism about mail ins favouring Dems has to be reassessed, but is still holding as a truism... which suggests Biden will win Nevada and Wisconsin. So we really are waiting on Detroit?

'Waiting on' - as soon as you start discussing American events you end up using Americanisms. Derail ends. I'm going to call them postal votes from now on though.

 

[Plumdaff]

This is quite fun

Build your own US election result: plot a Biden or Trump win

Biden may be ahead in the polls, but key battlegrounds that the Democrats lost unexpectedly in 2016 could come through again for Trump. Use our simulator to build your own election result map

www.theguardian.com

I keep getting 269-269 or 270-268

271/267. We know Biden has all the Maine EC votes, and that might be what does it (if he wins Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, but loses or litigates a halt in Pennsylvania)

 

[chilango]

This is quite fun

Build your own US election result: plot a Biden or Trump win

Biden may be ahead in the polls, but key battlegrounds that the Democrats lost unexpectedly in 2016 could come through again for Trump. Use our simulator to build your own election result map

www.theguardian.com

I keep getting 269-269 or 270-268

Yeah most of my playing puts it very, very close.

 

[Wilf]

They don't have to be pro-Dem, 50/50 would do. And mail ballots have favoured Dem so far.

erm, why? Surely Dems are behind in Michigan?

 

[Flavour]

Didn't realize Biden already had Maine 2 sown up. great

 

[a_chap]

Trump now firmly saying that he'll go to the Supreme Court to block any further votes being counted.

Not even a pretense of democracy now.

This might still end badly.

 

[Plumdaff]

Didn't realize Biden already had Maine 2 sown up. great

Actually I thought it had but I might be wrong. It's so annoying that so many sources don't split Maine and Nebraska

 

[Plumdaff]

Trump now firmly saying that he'll go to the Supreme Court to block any further votes being counted.

Not even a pretense of democracy now.

This might still end badly.

You have to assume (hope?) that anyone confident of victory wouldn't bother.

 

[Wilf]

Michigan down to 12k gap, with 10% to count. Bum squeaks.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

They don't have to be pro-Dem, 50/50 would do. And mail ballots have favoured Dem so far.

If the graun figures are correct, Trump needs to win the remaining votes in Nevada by 1.2 percentage points or more to overtake Biden. It's still squeaky bum.