Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

[Pickman's model]

no its not! The reasoning was that it would be a step too far, in provoking him, cos nukes.

So NATO says in no equivocal way they won't go to war over Ukraine and refuse to provide the jets because Russia says this would make them part of the war and you're rather put out? How much blood would satisfy you, what do you want NATO to do that might both repel Russia and not risk a war which might spread much further?

 

[bimble]

I think that was a cover excuse, the real reason because it was a silly idea.

why was it a silly idea? I don't mean the cunning plan, that did sound daft, but why is Poland too frightened to hand over those jets, it's for the same reason. The idea that that step might be just a step too far in provoking Putin so we'd immediately get WW3 and nuclear armageddon.

 

[bimble]

So NATO says in no equivocal way they won't go to war over Ukraine and refuse to provide the jets because Russia says this would make them part of the war and you're rather put out? How much blood would satisfy you, what do you want NATO to do that might both repel Russia and not risk a war which might spread much further?

did they say that? Is that the reason then - Putin or a spokesperson said that he'd count those jets as getting directly involved, whilst sending all the other weapons he doesn't?

 

[Pickman's model]

did they say that? Is that the reason then - Putin or a spokesperson said that he'd count those jets as getting directly involved, whilst sending all the other weapons he doesn't?

Not sure how long we can continue swapping questions before you'll actually answer one

 

[bimble]

So NATO says in no equivocal way they won't go to war over Ukraine and refuse to provide the jets because Russia says this would make them part of the war and you're rather put out? How much blood would satisfy you, what do you want NATO to do that might both repel Russia and not risk a war which might spread much further?

Russia did not "say this would make them part of the war." I think you just made that up.

'Neither Poland nor the United States wants to make itself — or NATO — a target of Russia. And providing MIG fighters might cross over Putin’s invisible line' They're erring on the side of caution, just in case Russia would see it as a step too far.

 

[AmateurAgitator]

Putin is one grim fucker. He almost seems to relish outrageous and blatant acts of violence - from the Salisbury poisonings to using chemical weapons in Syria to his brutalising of the people of Ukraine. Its the behaviour of gangster - sending a message via sadistic and merciless brutality. And the ridiculous denials and lies are all part of it.
Fuck trying to accommodate and "learn to live with" him and his regime. And fuck off the "all as bad as each other" argument. There is a qualitative difference between your run of the mill political leaders and regimes and the likes of Putin - hes down there with Idi Amin, Saddam Hussein or Papa Doc. Its not just hes doing what he sees as necessary / what he thinks he can get away with - ruthless cruelty its his default state.

Siding with one ruling class against another is what people made politically ignorant by their rulers do.

 

[dilute micro]

I am aware that my point of view might be different if i had kids.
But watching this horror unfold day by day and seeing the statements of people like the head of nato and Biden when they explain why we mustn't risk provoking him just looks to me like saying that a nuclear-armed state can do whatever the hell it wants to its neighbours. So MAD has failed.

I know how you feel. I feel it too.

 

[Pickman's model]

Russia did not "say this would make them part of the war." I think you just made that up.

'Neither Poland nor the United States wants to make itself — or NATO — a target of Russia. And providing MIG fighters might cross over Putin’s invisible line' They're erring on the side of caution, just in case Russia would see it as a step too far.

 

[Pickman's model]

Russia did not "say this would make them part of the war." I think you just made that up.

'Neither Poland nor the United States wants to make itself — or NATO — a target of Russia. And providing MIG fighters might cross over Putin’s invisible line' They're erring on the side of caution, just in case Russia would see it as a step too far.

You're very big on accusing others of lying and very small on answering questions. E2A not to mention silent on apologies

 

[Indeliblelink]

Fucking hell, this is going to get the 'down a rabbit hole' lot going...



LINK

This would be comical, if it wasn't for the fact that there's a bloody war going on.

Says they were trying to spread something called Newcastle disease.
I'd hate to think what the symptoms are. [insert your own jokes here]

US-funded biolabs in Ukraine worked to develop biological weapons against Slavs

The purpose of the project was to spread particularly dangerous infections through migratory birds, a Russian military official said.

english.pravda.ru

According to Kirillov, it was planned to spread particularly dangerous infectious diseases with the help of birds. In particular, it goes about highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza and Newcastle disease.

 

[bimble]

You're very big on accusing others of lying and very small on answering questions

ok, Russia warned that fighter jets would be a step too far, would be seen as participation, and thats why it isn't happening. I was wrong. It happens daily tbh.

Bigger point is still the same though: Everyone (nato, america) is taking threats like that (dont dare send the jets or else we will count you as beligerents) seriously because it imagines that any step that provokes Russia too much would mean immediate ww3 and lead to nukes. Thats the bit i am struggling with .

 

[Pickman's model]

ok, Russia warned that fighter jets would be a step too far, would be seen as participation, and thats why it isn't happening. I was wrong. It happens daily tbh.

Bigger point is still the same, everyone (nato, america) is taking threats like that seriously because it imagines that any step that provokes Russia bit too much would mean immediate ww3 and lead to nukes. Thats the bit i am struggling with .

Yeh you were wrong but I'm not seeing a sorry there.

 

[The39thStep]

Says they were trying to spread something called Newcastle disease.
I'd hate to think what the symptoms are. [insert your own jokes here]

US-funded biolabs in Ukraine worked to develop biological weapons against Slavs

The purpose of the project was to spread particularly dangerous infections through migratory birds, a Russian military official said.

english.pravda.ru

The Newcastle disease gives people temporary strength and inclination to punch police horses

 

[andysays]

Bigger point is still the same though: Everyone (nato, america) is taking threats like that (dont dare send the jets or else we will count you as beligerents) seriously because it imagines that any step that provokes Russia too much would mean immediate ww3 and lead to nukes. Thats the bit i am struggling with .

Of course they're taking it seriously, because the possibility of escalation leading to nukes is real and needs to be taken seriously. It would be a real possibility even if Putin hadn't made that announcement.

That doesn't mean that there are no circumstances short of an attack on a NATO member which might result in NATO deciding to escalate or intervene more directly, but it's not realistic to expect them to announce in advance what those circumstances are, especially as there are presumably differences of opinion among the various member states.

 

[Pickman's model]

ok, Russia warned that fighter jets would be a step too far, would be seen as participation, and thats why it isn't happening. I was wrong. It happens daily tbh.

Bigger point is still the same though: Everyone (nato, america) is taking threats like that (dont dare send the jets or else we will count you as beligerents) seriously because it imagines that any step that provokes Russia too much would mean immediate ww3 and lead to nukes. Thats the bit i am struggling with .

Do you want to take the chance it does? Go on bimble, do you feel lucky?

 

[bimble]

Do you want to take the chance it does? Go on bimble, do you feel lucky?

It's a good thing that i am not in charge of fighter jet related decisions.

 

[gosub]

Says they were trying to spread something called Newcastle disease.
I'd hate to think what the symptoms are. [insert your own jokes here]

US-funded biolabs in Ukraine worked to develop biological weapons against Slavs

The purpose of the project was to spread particularly dangerous infections through migratory birds, a Russian military official said.

english.pravda.ru

Newcastle disease causes soldiers to wander about in -20degrees without a coat

 

[ohmyliver]

Says they were trying to spread something called Newcastle disease.

From WIki Virulent Newcastle disease - Wikipedia "Strains of Newcastle disease virus have been used to treat cancer in humans, since the virus appears to preferentially infect and kill cancerous cells. Strains of Newcastle disease virus have also been used to create viral vector vaccine candidates against Ebola and Covid-19"

Looks like I picked the wrong week to give up smoking

 

[zahir]

Biden talking about WW3.

 

[Pickman's model]

Biden talking about WW3.

The way things are scheduled everything's good to go in 2025 between China and America but Russia, which had an important role laid out, might have to sit on the sidelines at least for the start of the big one

 

[bimble]

Biden talking about WW3.

was just sat here listening to chamberlains speech on sept 27th 1938.
"However much we may sympathize with a small nation confronted by a big and powerful neighbor, we cannot in all circumstances undertake to involve the whole British Empire in a war simply on her account. If we have to fight it must be on larger issues than that."

 

[cupid_stunt]

Of course they're taking it seriously, because the possibility of escalation leading to nukes is real and needs to be taken seriously. It would be a real possibility even if Putin hadn't made that announcement.

That doesn't mean that there are no circumstances short of an attack on a NATO member which might result in NATO deciding to escalate or intervene more directly, but it's not realistic to expect them to announce in advance what those circumstances are, especially as there are presumably differences of opinion among the various member states.

And, yet, they announced a few weeks in advance of the invasion that they would not get involved, thus giving Putin the green light for a full invasion, that was such a fucking dumb thing to do.

At the very least they could have kept him guessing, or even better announced, 'we will consider any request for assistance, particularly in respect of enforcing a no fly zone'.

He may then have decided to just for the Donbas region, which Biden had basically already given the green light for, instead of the mess that has now unfolded.

 

[teqniq]

Interesting little thread here. Maybe the leadership is looking for an 'out':

 

[Pickman's model]

Interesting little thread here. Maybe the leadership is looking for an 'out':

I'm sure they are. But there is no road to yesterday. And none of the roads to tomorrow are smooth.

 

[bimble]

Interesting little thread here. Maybe the leadership is looking for an 'out':

this is excellent! We won, we can go home now.

 

[Pickman's model]

this is excellent! We won, we can go home now.

We won with our sanctions and weapons, the Ukrainians lost

 

[bimble]

We won with our sanctions and weapons, the Ukrainians lost

Russian state TV bod saying that the 'Russian army has achieved its goals' mission accomplished well done lads lets call it a day, is good news and you're not going to spoil my tiny optimism.

 

[Mr Moose]

Siding with one ruling class against another is what people made politically ignorant by their rulers do.

Bit trite. He’s simply venting some understandable spleen. Why be uncomfortable with it?

 

[gosub]

was just sat here listening to chamberlains speech on sept 27th 1938.
"However much we may sympathize with a small nation confronted by a big and powerful neighbor, we cannot in all circumstances undertake to involve the whole British Empire in a war simply on her account. If we have to fight it must be on larger issues than that."

As much as the French rightly thought Hitler had crossed the Rubincon as much as Chamberlain was publicly 'peace in our time' privately it was we ain't ready and we need to rear. ...

EU tasked with getting defense spending sorted by May (20 years of Europe dragging it's heals)

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Why aren't they sending those fighter jets?

Remember who’s ultimately calling the shots: the Biden admin, US military wonks and the CIA. I’ve seen arguments from a US based military thinktank that advocated for a protracted conflict in Ukraine. This is to grind down Putin, militarily and politically (both internal and international). If this is the angle the US is exploiting sending in jets with limited utility is not worth the disruption it could cause to the current unity among its allies.