Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

[bimble]

I just read that the Ukrainians are saying that a Russian jet shot at a Belarusian Village from within Ukrainian airspace. Talk about smoke and mirrors.

yeah, thats what people are saying , a necessary bit of theatre to allow the 'official' joining in to happen.

 

[contadino]

You can always avoid defeat by being determined not to allow it.

Joke, right? That's the sort of thing Truss or Johnson would come out with...

 

[MickiQ]

Are the Belarusians likely to be any use if they go in? I can well imagine that a lot of them will just straight up desert the first chance they get.
The Syrians will probably be effective but how many of them will they be able to recruit.

 

[bimble]

Are the Belarusians likely to be any use if they go in? I can well imagine that a lot of them will just straight up desert the first chance they get.
The Syrians will probably be effective but how many of them will they be able to recruit.

$200 a month apparently, doesn't sound like a great opportunity.

 

[friedaweed]

The Syrians will probably be effective but how many of them will they be able to recruit.

16k according to Vlad

 

[friedaweed]

$200 a month apparently, doesn't sound like a great opportunity.

Not when Military contractors are getting up to 2k a day from Western agencies.

 

[MickiQ]

16k according to Vlad

Not really a reliable source though

 

[friedaweed]

Not really a reliable source though

Good point.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Fucking hell, this is going to get the 'down a rabbit hole' lot going...

The Russian ambassador to UN, Vasily Nebenzya, has been presenting the Kremlin’s allegations that Ukraine and the US had a plot to spread biological weapons with migratory birds, bats and insects.

Nebenzya issued a chilling warning to Eastern Europe that biological agents: "We call upon you to think about a very real biological danger to the people in European countries, which can result from an uncontrolled spread of bio agents from Ukraine. And if there is a such a scenario then all Europe will be covered. The risk of this is very real given the interests of the radical nationalist groups in Ukraine are showing towards the work with dangerous pathogens conducted together with the ministry of defence of the United States."

After Nebenzya spoke, Albania, the US and France have voiced alarm that the allegations may be an advance cover story for Russian plans to unleash chemical or biological weapons.

US ambassador, Linda Thomas-Greenfield said: "The intent behind these lies seem clear and it is deeply troubling. We believe Russia could use chemical or biological agents for assassinations as part of a false flag incident or to support tactical military operations."

LINK

This would be comical, if it wasn't for the fact that there's a bloody war going on.

 

[bimble]

this makes sense to me, or maybe its just what i want to hear:

"The problem now is that preemptively panicking over potential escalation effectively grants Vladimir Putin control over the size and scale of the conflict.
..
Jumping to the conclusion that literally every move by NATO will lead to an apocalyptic war for the ages is grossly premature. It’s like forwarding matches from a dating app to a wedding planner."

Ukraine Isn’t World War III. It’s Not Even Close.

Jumping to the conclusion that any direct confrontation with Russia will automatically lead to an apocalyptic global conflict is grossly premature, and plays into Putin’s hands.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[kebabking]

That's a fairly widely held view in the eastern states, that framing your posture and policy around not provoking Putin is, in fact, provoking him.

The view is that if you vacate a space, he will enter it, if you don't vacate it, he'll stay out - and that goes for policy, not just territory.

I hold that view. I think it also applies to nukes - we in the west tend not to talk about them, we'd far rather talk about our carriers, or tanks or whatever - but old matey-cakes talks about the all the time and parades them through Red Square.

Imv, this reticence to occupy the nuclear space ceeds it to him, which he then exploits.

 

[Mr Moose]

Interesting thread from a Belarusian POV. Hurts to be under a dictatorship and hurts again to have others associate you with it.

 

[bimble]

That's a fairly widely held view in the eastern states, that framing your posture and policy around not provoking Putin is, in fact, provoking him.

The view is that if you vacate a space, he will enter it, if you don't vacate it, he'll stay out - and that goes for policy, not just territory.

I hold that view. I think it also applies to nukes - we in the west tend not to talk about them, we'd far rather talk about our carriers, or tanks or whatever - but old matey-cakes talks about the all the time and parades them through Red Square.

Imv, this reticence to occupy the nuclear space ceeds it to him, which he then exploits.

exactly.
millions of billions of dollars spent on nukes and what do we get for it, NATO & America saying that we'd best not dare send those fighter jets cos Putin might just nuke us.

 

[Raheem]

Joke, right? That's the sort of thing Truss or Johnson would come out with...

Either a missing 't or the a should have been a u.

 

[Kaka Tim]

exactly.
millions of billions of dollars spent on nukes and what do we get for it, NATO & America saying that we'd best not dare send those fighter jets cos Putin might just nuke us.

yeah - the pressure to call blofeld's bluff is going to grow and grow with every dead kid pulled from the rubble

 

[agricola]

Fucking hell, this is going to get the 'down a rabbit hole' lot going...



LINK

This would be comical, if it wasn't for the fact that there's a bloody war going on.

Not to be overly paranoid but if someone did want to release a biological weapon, perhaps a good time to do so would be when their country has been cut out of nearly all its air routes and other forms of international trade.

 

[Pickman's model]

yeah - the pressure to call blofeld's bluff is going to grow and grow with every dead kid pulled from the rubble

And this is how world wars start

 

[dilute micro]

this makes sense to me, or maybe its just what i want to hear:

"The problem now is that preemptively panicking over potential escalation effectively grants Vladimir Putin control over the size and scale of the conflict.
..
Jumping to the conclusion that literally every move by NATO will lead to an apocalyptic war for the ages is grossly premature. It’s like forwarding matches from a dating app to a wedding planner."

Ukraine Isn’t World War III. It’s Not Even Close.

Jumping to the conclusion that any direct confrontation with Russia will automatically lead to an apocalyptic global conflict is grossly premature, and plays into Putin’s hands.

www.thedailybeast.com

I don't think Ryan Faith is including all the variables. A no-fly zone means shooting down Russian aircraft in a warzone and shouldn't be considered any ol sort of action. And Putin isn't normal if he truly has dreams of an Imperial Russia. The way things would kick off as a result of underestimating the situation might not allow a way to stop it. The question is do we want world War 3 and flip a coin on whether in Putin's mind he wouldn't think he has the upper hand and use even just one small tactical nuke? Putin values and enjoys the intimidation game. It's dangerous to think that intimidation is always on our side. I think this is a case of knowing your enemy.

 

[bimble]

I am aware that my point of view might be different if i had kids.
But watching this horror unfold day by day and seeing the statements of people like the head of nato and Biden when they explain why we mustn't risk provoking him just looks to me like saying that a nuclear-armed state can do whatever the hell it wants to its neighbours. So MAD has failed.

 

[nogojones]

Fucking hell, this is going to get the 'down a rabbit hole' lot going...



LINK

This would be comical, if it wasn't for the fact that there's a bloody war going on.

So the "birds aren't real" people are legit after all

 

[weltweit]

I am aware that my point of view might be different if i had kids.
But watching this horror unfold day by day and seeing the statements of people like the head of nato and Biden when they explain why we mustn't risk provoking him just looks to me like saying that a nuclear-armed state can do whatever the hell it wants to its neighbours. So MAD has failed.

MAD only works if you both could destroy each other, i.e. you both have a nuclear deterrent.

Our nukes didn't dissuade the Argentines invading the Faulklands, they didn't have nukes.

Likewise Ukraine didn't have them so had no deterrent against Russia.

 

[bimble]

MAD only works if you both could destroy each other, i.e. you both have a nuclear deterrent.

Our nukes didn't dissuade the Argentines invading the Faulklands, they didn't have nukes.

Likewise Ukraine didn't have them so had no deterrent against Russia.

yes. Point is not about Ukraine it's about America & Nato.

 

[Pickman's model]

I am aware that my point of view might be different if i had kids.
But watching this horror unfold day by day and seeing the statements of people like the head of nato and Biden when they explain why we mustn't risk provoking him just looks to me like saying that a nuclear-armed state can do whatever the hell it wants to its neighbours. So MAD has failed.

Mad hasn't failed. NATO has been very clear it wouldn't go to war over Ukraine but equally if there was an assault on a NATO country I am confident they would use military action against the assailant. Mad isn't Russia don't be nasty to your neighbours who aren't in nato

 

[bimble]

Mad hasn't failed. NATO has been very clear it wouldn't go to war over Ukraine but equally if there was an assault on a NATO country I am confident they would use military action against the assailant. Mad isn't Russia don't be nasty to your neighbours who aren't in nato

Why aren't they sending those fighter jets?

 

[Pickman's model]

yes. Point is not about Ukraine it's about America & Nato.

Yeh and what international obligations bind NATO to defending Ukraine and repelling boarders from its er borders?

 

[Pickman's model]

Why aren't they sending those fighter jets?

That's neither here nor there. Nothing to do with your mad has failed

 

[weltweit]

Why aren't they sending those fighter jets?

A step too far I think ..

 

[bimble]

That's neither here nor there.

no its not! The reasoning was that it would be a step too far, in provoking him, cos nukes.

 

[agricola]

no its not! The reasoning was that it would be a step too far, in provoking him, cos nukes.

I think that was a cover excuse, the real reason because it was a silly idea.

 

[ska invita]

yeah - the pressure to call blofeld's bluff is going to grow and grow with every dead kid pulled from the rubble

or the pressure to come to a peace agreement