MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Wonder that myself
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I don't read those results like that at all. Support for continuing the war to victory and no negotiation is way under half (38%) and falling. And the differences by region are massive. The closer to the fighting they are, the more they want the fighting to end. I've never heard Zelenskiy say anything other than that they fight on to victory. He is losing his people on this, and the closer to the fighting they are, the more he is losing them.Only 25% of Ukrainians are open to territorial concessions to end the war. (50% want peace, but only 50% of those would concede territory for peace) Zelensky continues to represent his people.
Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War
Ukrainians are growing increasingly weary of the war with Russia. Gallup's latest surveys of Ukraine show 52% would like to see the war end as soon as possible.news.gallup.com
(Also, as others have noted, this excludes a section of the population currently under Russian control. From looking at their immediate neighbours' attitudes in other parts of the east, we can guess what most of them think.)
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Tbh he's lost his people or he'd have held elections when his term of office expired
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Further to that, the opinions of certain groups towards certain issues matter, even if they may not be a majority within the political boundaries of Ukraine as a whole. So, for example, if a large majority of the people of Donbas want a negotiated peace and they would prefer being annexed by Russia over a continuation of the war, that matters, even if they are outnumbered by people to the west of them who disagree. They're the people living there. They are the people suffering the most.
In a country united by a shared sense of identity, purpose and resolve, you would expect those living in the areas that could be annexed would be the ones most in favour of continuing the fight. Yet the exact opposite of this is true.
In a country united by a shared sense of identity, purpose and resolve, you would expect those living in the areas that could be annexed would be the ones most in favour of continuing the fight. Yet the exact opposite of this is true.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I don't think it is practical to hold elections tbh. On his level of support by and large I think its quite high tbh . I think the problem he might face is that the efforts that have gone into building the high level of Ukrainian public support for maximalist demands have led to very unrealistic expectations. These create the potential for widespread disappointment when the war ends in an outcome short of total battlefield victory and territorial liberation. He has already begun a line of drip feeding that the war will end next year and his 'victory plan ' isn't designed to meet the objectives of total victory or a return to the 2014 borders. He is now saying that there will be no further lowering of the conscription age. He is going to have to juggle realism and manage morale which is going to be very tricky.
As to future elections who knows? He might even not stand and it wouldn't surprise me if Poroshenko returns.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Total battlefield victory has never been a realistic prospect. Zelenskiy may be judged quite harshly by history for maintaining the fantasy that it could be for as long as he has.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Not just him tbh , other state leaders , most of the Western and European media and a whole number of academics, historians and 'Soviet' experts that could and should have raised doubts. Add that to the criticism and ostracising of those who challenged the maximalist fantasy as 'Putin apologists and we have had an echo chamber of delusion
ska invita
back on the other side
its nothing to do with that
its no different to when the deal gets done next year
editor
hiraethified
Whatever you say.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
That doesn't make much sense to me.
Putin's not trustworthy, so we need to kill a few hundred thousand people first before we negotiate with him?
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
How does that invalidate what I said? You disagree that only 25% are willing to give up territory for peace? You realise that what you've stated and what I've stated are not incompatible, I hope. I don't understand how you can say "I don't read those results like that at all" without some sort of miscomprehension of the data.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
We're both telling stories from the data. I think my story is a more useful one in terms of the way that those numbers, taken as a whole, describe a country that is becoming increasingly exhausted and demoralised. You've left out the 'don't knows/won't says' from that figure.
'Zelenskiy continues to represent his people' was your conclusion from that survey. It's not mine.
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Okay, let me repeat. Only 25% of people are willing to concede territory in return for peace. You accept that figure. What is it you think their leader should be doing in that case?
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Putin says Russia will use experimental missile again after Ukraine strike
Ukrainian president calls testing of nuclear-capable weapon on his country’s territory an ‘international crime’
Hazel missiles. This just gets worse.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I wonder if there is any market research about how people feel about being the name that is on the bomb that could wipe them out?Putin says Russia will use experimental missile again after Ukraine strike
Ukrainian president calls testing of nuclear-capable weapon on his country’s territory an ‘international crime’www.theguardian.com
Hazel missiles. This just gets worse.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Putin called it a Hazel-tree, a change from their usual Russian tough sounding words like Iskander, Kinzhal or even Satan. No one had heard of this name before, Pentagon thinks the name was made up during the supposedly private call from Putin's office to Zakharova that was taken on her mobile whilst live on air with the phone next to microphones...
“I also have a phone, but I won’t be using it — first, because we are a free country and don’t get orders what to say, and second, we tell the truth, so we don’t have to remember what we lied yesterday.”
Their best guess is that it was a Pioneer missile, a Soviet one from the late 70s, early 80s. The debris will confirm whether their guess is right or not, I guess. Until then of course it is just speculation.
“I also have a phone, but I won’t be using it — first, because we are a free country and don’t get orders what to say, and second, we tell the truth, so we don’t have to remember what we lied yesterday.”
Their best guess is that it was a Pioneer missile, a Soviet one from the late 70s, early 80s. The debris will confirm whether their guess is right or not, I guess. Until then of course it is just speculation.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Yes, this. And it's not as though he has played a neutral role in the formation of those expectations.
sleaterkinney
Well-Known Member
Well, at the moment he is successfully resisting an invasion by a country many times bigger, deploying scorched earth tactics and abducting children so that would be quite the turnaround.
Posters might fondly remember the period in late Spring last year where there were a number of somewhat optimistic , some might say reckless, proposals for dividing up Russia. Plans for dividing up Brazil and South Africa followed.
Interfax-Ukraine and RBC-Ukraine have recently published these maps from 'sources in the intelligence community' which are allegedly from a Russian risk assessment of the global military-political situation until 2045. This is one scenario for Ukraine.
View attachment 451894
The key is red= part of the Russian Republic, orange =pro-Russian state formation and yellow = disputed territories which Russia which Russia would discuss their future with plans to divide with Hungary, Poland, and Romania who are on their borders.
Russia creates plan for division of Ukraine and may offer it to USA - Media
Read morenewsukraine.rbc.ua
It is obvious that Orban is on this plan and his pro-Russian stance is because he hopes to annex Transcarpathia region of Ukraine. Czech and Polish diplomats already called the whistle on being approached by Russia to divide up Ukraine so it is inconceivable that Hungary, with the clearest claims on Ukrainian territory wouldn't also have been approached, yet the Hungarian government has not reported being approached and has clearly been rooting for Russian victory.
This is probably also why Hungary is militarising.
This would be a terrible precedent.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
It's not a plan, it's an alleged forecasting scenario/risk assessment exercise . This is one of four scenarios. Clearly bonkers and unrealistic anyway.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Smells of bullshit to me, tbh.
It clearly is what Russia has planned as a likely victory condition though - annex the regions occupied and negotiate a compliant and divided rump Ukraine is consistent with Russian behaviour.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
It's mainly been covered in Ukrainian media so possibly an SBU invention?
Don't most us assume anyway that Russia's starting point will be something more incursive than what was on the table in 2022 in Turkey? No NATO membership, reduction in Ukraine's armed forces , no overseas military bases, recognition of the occupied areas in some form or other, protection of Russian language, something about denazification etc etc.
Why is it bullshit?
Russia has already formally annexed the regions labelled on the map even if it doesn't actually fully occupy them (yet).
The whole purpose of Russia invading was to ensure that Ukraine remained in the Russian sphere of influence, so a compliant rump Ukraine with a friendly government is clearly a goal.
Russia has already approached Poland and Czechia to divide up Ukraine:
Can't find the article for Russia approaching Czechia as it was before the war and Google favours recent results, but I already posted it in this thread before. It is certain that Hungary was also approached if Poland and Czechia were.
Also it is a ridiculous notion that a "forecast" of how Ukraine will be annexed and divided shared by a country currently running a totally militarised economy dedicated towards the occupation of Ukraine is merely "forecasting and risk assessment" and not a plan.
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I don't assume that. If they can they will be happy to annex all they have currently and attempt to leave a rump defenseless Ukraine with a puppet government, which can be invaded and annexed more easily later if necessary.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Just feels like something made up. Propaganda. I don't know, of course, but it would be foolish to think it couldn't be. A map written in Ukrainian script, not an original Russian source, I note. Doesn't prove much, but also the plan makes little sense. We'll give some of Ukraine to Poland? On what planet does Poland suddenly become a Russian ally? Hmmm.
And also, our first assumption when secret services release this kind of thing should be that they've made it up. We'll be right a lot of the time.
And also, our first assumption when secret services release this kind of thing should be that they've made it up. We'll be right a lot of the time.
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Obviously giving to Poland isn't going to happen but they did literally approach Poland to divide up Ukraine, that is documented, so it is something they have in mind. It makes sense from the Kremlin perspective because it fits in with the idea that Ukraine is a fake nation - western Ukraine is obviously not Russian so seeking to divide it amongst other countries is consistent with this ideology which is an important part of the thinking behind invading Ukraine.
Giving Transcarpathia to Hungary is very plausible however.
There's a strange resistance to seeing Russia as anything other than a reactive actor here - if those plans (sorry, "forecasts") are fake, then what on earth do you imagine Russia has in mind for Ukraine?
I note that most of the people seeing the west arming Ukraine as the problem were also confidently predicting Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine earlier in this thread.
Suspect with Trump elected and a real possibility of finding out what Russian victory will mean in the coming decade, many of the people on this thread stuck viewing the world with a paradigm from 20 years ago when China had a GDP equal to Italy will have a rude awakening.
I note that most of the people seeing the west arming Ukraine as the problem were also confidently predicting Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine earlier in this thread.
Suspect with Trump elected and a real possibility of finding out what Russian victory will mean in the coming decade, many of the people on this thread stuck viewing the world with a paradigm from 20 years ago when China had a GDP equal to Italy will have a rude awakening.
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