Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Who what etc
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
This war is profoundly depressing. The recent escalation is profoundly worrying.
And still it will drag on and on and on until everyone reaches exhaustion.
What are your thoughts on ways to end the bloodshed?
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
It's not your arms that will be flying off into the air as a result of this decision.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Well yes they gambled and lost then. Doesn't necessarily mean they would gamble again, but if course they might. I assume they would test the waters with something small anyway just push the boundary and see what happens.
Guess we will find out in a few months.
PTK
Paul Kegan
The tritium, super-heavy hydrogen, in a thermonulcear ("H") bomb needs topping up every so often. It decays, and without it there cannot be successful fusion. However, I assume that not all nuclear bombs in the arsenal are fusion bombs. Furthermore, the fission part of a thermonuclear bomb should still work. The explosion would be a lot less powerful, but it could still destroy a large part of a city.
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
No, the way a thermonuclear device works you'd end up with quite a small blast. The whole point is to minimise the amount of fissionable material. It makes for a lighter weapon, it makes for a "clean" (obviously the term is relative) blast, it means less expensive enrichment. This is why even smaller output weapons are h-bombs.
I still wouldn't choose to be under a fizzled one, not the least because it's going to be dirty as fuck, but it's not going to flatten even a small city.
Eta: Basically there's a primary and a tertiary fission event. The primary is very small - just enough to initiate fusion - but if fusion fails because your tritium has sat for 20 years then the sizeable tertiary reaction just becomes a dirty bomb.
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The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
kebabking
I'm not sure buy the explanation that two NATO members decided to escalate and challenge a red line in enabling the Ukrainians to use their longer range missile on attacks on Russia in full knowledge that NATO will effectively be dead in less than two months. There will have been several risk assessments and contingency plans drawn up by NATO , the EU , groups of states and not least the US military themselves.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I'll be honest and say that my exposure to decision makers and 'option framers' throughout NATO states in the last three years has taught me that when it comes to Ukraine and Russia, denial and delusion are as rampant as they are in the Kremlin...
A lot of the decision-making has been as utterly divorced from reality as looking out of your window at good force 8 storm with temperatures hovering around freezing, blizzard's as far as the eye can't see, and walking out in to the garden to blow up the paddling pool so your kids can have a splash in their swimming costumes.
Not just a difference of opinion, but a 'what the fuck are you seeing?'...
Flavour
hang the bankers
The bloodshed can only be ended two ways.
1) overthrow of putin and the Russian government
2) negotiated settlement in which Ukraine gives up donetsk, luhansk, crimea and more in return for a temporary peace.
1) is unlikely to happen so we'll get 2), and the variable on the table is how much Ukraine must accept ceding. The more territory they are successfully able to defend militarily, the better, in that respect.
The other barrier to peace will be zelensky himself but I can see him being overthrown much more easily than I can putin. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if zelensky is killed or arrested in order for the Ukrainian military to be able to surrender.
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
No. I don't think "European security chiefs" should protect any countries other than their own and the Russian Federation is zero military threat to EU/NATO.
Humberto
dreamin man
I guess you've got to ask what the repurcussions would be if Russia nuked Kiev. They've game played all this in the Pentagon.
There are many devastating maneuvers short of a nuclear strike Russia could play against the UK in particular and Europe. But that's why they are playing and have played.
Nothing slightly belligerent, short-sighted or uninformed here will matter fuck all.
There are many devastating maneuvers short of a nuclear strike Russia could play against the UK in particular and Europe. But that's why they are playing and have played.
Nothing slightly belligerent, short-sighted or uninformed here will matter fuck all.
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
Recommend visiting Hiroshima peace museum to get a feel for the horrific enormity of the effects of an atomic bomb.
How can countries allow themselves to be on the brink of such inhumanity, again?
How can countries allow themselves to be on the brink of such inhumanity, again?
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Only 25% of Ukrainians are open to territorial concessions to end the war. (50% want peace, but only 50% of those would concede territory for peace) Zelensky continues to represent his people.
Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War
Ukrainians are growing increasingly weary of the war with Russia. Gallup's latest surveys of Ukraine show 52% would like to see the war end as soon as possible.
news.gallup.com
Flavour
hang the bankers
But if his military top brass decide they're open to territorial concessions for peace, and decide on a coup against Zelensky, it won't matter if the people are against.Only 25% of Ukrainians are open to territorial concessions to end the war. (50% want peace, but only 50% of those would concede territory for peace) Zelensky continues to represent his people.
Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War
Ukrainians are growing increasingly weary of the war with Russia. Gallup's latest surveys of Ukraine show 52% would like to see the war end as soon as possible.
Would be interesting to see the variation in those numbers by region, I'm sure it varies wildly between frontline cities like Kharkiv and the relativey unscated Lviv
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Only 25% of Ukrainians are open to territorial concessions to end the war. (50% want peace, but only 50% of those would concede territory for peace) Zelensky continues to represent his people.
Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War
Ukrainians are growing increasingly weary of the war with Russia. Gallup's latest surveys of Ukraine show 52% would like to see the war end as soon as possible.
I found the lack of enthusiasm for the US to have a significant role in peace negotiations fascinating despite it being the largest supplier of armaments.
maomao
普費斯
You wouldn't think he'd have trouble finding volunteers to fight then.Only 25% of Ukrainians are open to territorial concessions to end the war. (50% want peace, but only 50% of those would concede territory for peace) Zelensky continues to represent his people.
Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War
Ukrainians are growing increasingly weary of the war with Russia. Gallup's latest surveys of Ukraine show 52% would like to see the war end as soon as possible.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
hibakusha, the the survivors group winning the Nobel Peace Prize this year must have stuck in the gullets of some posters on here
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
I suspect that they don't trust them not to sell Ukraine down the river especially now the Orange Shitgibbon is in charge
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i'd be interested to learn how the views of ukrainians under russian occupation were gained, not to mention those who've fled the countryOnly 25% of Ukrainians are open to territorial concessions to end the war. (50% want peace, but only 50% of those would concede territory for peace) Zelensky continues to represent his people.
Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War
Ukrainians are growing increasingly weary of the war with Russia. Gallup's latest surveys of Ukraine show 52% would like to see the war end as soon as possible.
gosub
~#
Was the withdrawal from Afghanistan actually a Biden thing or hangover from Pompeo?
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Both. A Trump/Pompeo framework, with Biden playing what hand he had poorly. He had some flexibility within the arrangement, and he chose to opt for the minimum possible position within that flexibility.
He had no interest in exploiting what options he had, let alone manoeuvring for more. Apart from the chaotic optics at the airport, he was perfectly happy with the wider result.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I think the official statement from Bidens office was that they inherited the problem after Trumps deal with the Taliban. However one would be able to question whether Biden could have done anything more with the decision to leave ie further negotiations etc . That and 20 years of intervention in Afghanistan. ( edit : wasn't aware of kebabking reply)
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Why on earth would some Ukrainians after reading US foreign policy history have a lack of trust in the US as allies?
gosub
~#
Germans came out that well. Is about the only constructive thing I can say about that whole sorry episode that it seems timely to remember
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
It doesn't say what they do with responses from Ukrainians who've fled the country. They're bound to hit some given the RNG mobile dialing that they use.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Gallup polling also provides some other charts.
Firstly Attitude toward US
Expectations of joining NATO
Expectations of joing EU
How Germany is perceived
Firstly Attitude toward US
Expectations of joining NATO
Expectations of joing EU
How Germany is perceived
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