Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Yossarian]

Guess it depends whether you're a "glass 80% full" or "glass 20% empty" type

 

[The39thStep]

Guess it depends whether you're a "glass 80% full" or "glass 20% empty" type

Depends what time is last orders

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Well, Ukraine have lost 20% of their territory, ~6m people have left the country and their GDP is down 30%.

That's not winning.

The ‘experts’ reckoned Russia would walk it, here we are nearly 18 months later and they have taken control of a pile of rubble in exchange for 20k dead for ~10km. Kyiv is 800km away, we’ll all be long dead of old age before Russia gets there at this rate…

 

[Spymaster]

If Russia keeps winning at this this rate, they'll run out of soldiers way before they get to Kiev.

 

[tim]

Fun fact ,Kerensky who the Bolsheviks overthrew is buried in Wimbledon .He actually died in the States but couldn't get buried by the Russian Church there as they blamed him for overthrowing the Czar and held him responsible for the events that led to the Russian Revolution .His father allegedly taught Lenin.

Buried in close proximity to Anthony Blunt, Arthur Askey, Hattie Jaques, Jon Pertwee, and Walker from Dad's Army. I managed to get locked in myself one Sunday night about a decade ago.

 

[The39thStep]

Buried in close proximity to Anthony Blunt, Arthur Askey, Hattie Jaques, Jon Pertwee, and Walker from Dad's Army. I managed to get locked in myself one Sunday night about a decade ago.

Completely normal Sunday night for many tbh

 

[The39thStep]

The ‘experts’ reckoned Russia would walk it, here we are nearly 18 months later and they have taken control of a pile of rubble in exchange for 20k dead for ~10km. Kyiv is 800km away, we’ll all be long dead of old age before Russia gets there at this rate…

Thats the Yanks for you

 

[kebabking]

From Belingcat:

This Free Russian Leigon or whatever the fuck it is fits solidly into the 'its complicated' bin.

Rather like corruption, it's funny as fuck that some Russians are invading Russia, but these are bad actors (we'll need to see how this plays out, the bloke might be an outlier within the group, he may not), and while they might be useful 'allies' at the moment, they are likely to be tomorrow's adversaries...

 

[existentialist]

From Belingcat:

This Free Russian Leigon or whatever the fuck it is fits solidly into the 'its complicated' bin.

Rather like corruption, it's funny as fuck that some Russians are invading Russia, but these are bad actors (we'll need to see how this plays out, the bloke might be an outlier within the group, he may not), and while they might be useful 'allies' at the moment, they are likely to be tomorrow's adversaries...

"The enemy of my enemy is my...oh, fuck."

 

[Artaxerxes]

Putin should just negotiate rather than draw this out

 

[kabbes]

I’m surprised there aren’t others on Russia’s borders that might have perceived this as a good time to claim or reclaim territory.

 

[spitfire]

From Belingcat:

This Free Russian Leigon or whatever the fuck it is fits solidly into the 'its complicated' bin.

Rather like corruption, it's funny as fuck that some Russians are invading Russia, but these are bad actors (we'll need to see how this plays out, the bloke might be an outlier within the group, he may not), and while they might be useful 'allies' at the moment, they are likely to be tomorrow's adversaries...

The39thStep put up a profile of the head man in that crowd on the Fascism thread. He’s a really nasty piece of work.

 

[kebabking]

"The enemy of my enemy is my...oh, fuck."

The enemy of my enemy might be useful. He may become a friend, but he may not.

One of the things that's come through clearly in the is how ruthless the Ukrainian intelligence service are - they'll use these groups while they are useful, and drop them as soon as their negatives outweigh their usefulness.

 

[existentialist]

I’m surprised there aren’t others on Russia’s borders that might have perceived this as a good time to claim or reclaim territory.

Give it time...

 

[Spymaster]

The enemy of my enemy might be useful. He may become a friend, but he may not.

One of the things that's come through clearly in the is how ruthless the Ukrainian intelligence service are - they'll use these groups while they are useful, and drop them as soon as their negatives outweigh their usefulness.

What are the scenarios in which you can see this ending now?

It doesn't look like Putin's coming to the negotiating table any time soon, but it's also become increasingly clear that Russia aren't going to win this in any meaningful way.

 

[nogojones]

The enemy of my enemy might be useful. He may become a friend, but he may not.

One of the things that's come through clearly in the is how ruthless the Ukrainian intelligence service are - they'll use these groups while they are useful, and drop them as soon as their negatives outweigh their usefulness.

Following very much in the mold of how the American and British intelligence services treat their bedfellows.

 

[existentialist]

Following very much in the mold of how the American and British intelligence services treat their bedfellows.

That's realpolitik for you.

 

[kebabking]

What are the scenarios in which you can see this ending now?

It doesn't look like Putin's coming to the negotiating table any time soon, but it's also become increasingly clear that Russia aren't going to win this in any meaningful way.

Christ alone knows mate - anything from Putin limping on within a Russian state that's far more in hock to China, with its relations and trade with Europe frozen, to a full military or other structure coup, at which point all bets are off.

Belarus is going to be an interesting watch - they may attempt to jump ship, the Russians might attempt to preempt that with a power/land grab, which could cause the jumping ship...

 

[cupid_stunt]

It was a joke about what happened in Belgorod oblast today.

Oops.

Sorry keybored I missed it being a joke, head was all over the place last evening, as my solicitor had missed yet another day, the latest of several over the last four weeks, when he said he would get urgent documents to me, causing me a great deal of stress.

 

[kebabking]

Following very much in the mold of how the American and British intelligence services treat their bedfellows.

Dude, you may want to sit down, I'm afraid I have some very distressing news for you about how every intelligence organ that has ever existed behaves...

 

[Rimbaud]

I’m surprised there aren’t others on Russia’s borders that might have perceived this as a good time to claim or reclaim territory.

I suspect we might see something like that happening with Georgia in the not so distant future.

 

[DownwardDog]

What are the scenarios in which you can see this ending now?

It doesn't look like Putin's coming to the negotiating table any time soon, but it's also become increasingly clear that Russia aren't going to win this in any meaningful way.

The 2024 Presidential election might provide an inflection point. You'll have the FSB/GRU trying to engineer a Trump victory and the SBU working on a Biden win.

If Trump wins Ukraine are fucked. They will be told to chill and take a deal unless they can come up with something that can be used to indict Biden. They would be well advised to start working on this.

 

[tim]

The 2024 Presidential election might provide an inflection point. You'll have the FSB/GRU trying to engineer a Trump victory and the SBU working on a Biden win.

If Trump wins Ukraine are fucked. They will be told to chill and take a deal unless they can come up with something that can be used to indict Biden. They would be well advised to start working on this.

The Ukrainian's will kill Ivanka as a warning, just like they did with Dugin's daughter Darya.

 

[Artaxerxes]

I’m surprised there aren’t others on Russia’s borders that might have perceived this as a good time to claim or reclaim territory.

China is making hay and digging deep in to Vladivostok

 

[existentialist]

I suspect we might see something like that happening with Georgia in the not so distant future.

I'd lay a small bet on things kicking off a bit more in Crimea, too.

 

[spitfire]

Worth a quick read . Colborne’s conclusion poses an interesting question .

 

[The39thStep]

The enemy of my enemy might be useful. He may become a friend, but he may not.

One of the things that's come through clearly in the is how ruthless the Ukrainian intelligence service are - they'll use these groups while they are useful, and drop them as soon as their negatives outweigh their usefulness.

It would be nice to think that the SBU are just waiting for the right moment in the future to pounce and disarm and prosecute or possibly eliminate a heavily armed group of far right war veterans . Pre-war they only had 8 years to do so, post war?

Levkin has been a friend for some time, came to Ukraine to fight against the Russian backed independence movements in Donetsk in 2014. With a history Nazi activism including being charged with two murders, the desecration of Jewish graves and a period of being detained for acute mental illness in Russia he naturally joined Azov . Later was a 'theorist' and activist for Azov's National Militia. Azov campaigned for him and other Russian heroes to get Ukrainian Citizenship. One of those Russians who did get citizenship was Sergei Korotkikh a neo Nazi and Azov member who is now prominent in Kraken which is led by Azov's Nemichev.

Here Levkin is with Biletsky, the Azov leader who is now Commander of Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade, another friend who the ruthless SBU has found useful for the last decade.

 

[Pickman's model]

The enemy of my enemy might be useful. He may become a friend, but he may not.

One of the things that's come through clearly in the is how ruthless the Ukrainian intelligence service are - they'll use these groups while they are useful, and drop them as soon as their negatives outweigh their usefulness.

how unlike our own security services who have so bravely fought the corner of our afghan and iraqi allies

 

[kebabking]

The39thStep - that's all true, these groups and individuals are pretty vile - but isn't that the absolute living definition of ruthlessness?

The SBU have kept these creeps on as assets when they would probably have quite liked to put them against a wall because their usefulness has outweighed their negatives.

Russian bombers are dropping bombs on a Russian town, the Putin appointed governor of the region has told people who have fled not to return because it's not safe to do so, and news and pictures of this have flashed all over Russia. If you were being ruthless, what's a few gravestones compared to the utter devastation this event has torn into Russian perceptions of their security?

Where's next?

 

[kebabking]

how unlike our own security services who have so bravely fought the corner of our afghan and iraqi allies

Still not sure you're really understanding the definition of ruthless....