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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

I know. It's the level of access and that he had that surprises me and that he didn't set of some kind of data retention.

He's a 21 year old in the equivalent of the TA.
I agree. I compare that to our data security, and each folder in our system has its own permissions that you separately need to justify your access to. Why did this kid have permissions for so much?
 
I agree. I compare that to our data security, and each folder in our system has its own permissions that you separately need to justify your access to. Why did this kids have permissions for so much?

Well he was IT. I mean I've got access to the files of all the companies I support and set those permissions on folders for their users. I'm just surprised that the US Military is the same as a small MSP in Manchester.
 
Really nothing highlights the LARPy nature of the far-right's "deep state" shtick quite so well as this incident. If you genuinely believe the state is looking for an excuse to destroy your political tendency that absolute last thing you do is pass on photos of secret documents to your mates on discord like some sort of card trading game. I mean fuck when Spies for Peace found their way into a military bunker with secret plans in it in '63 they used gloves when making pamphlets of the resulting expose to avoid fingerprints, and threw the typewriter they'd used in the river. Snowden made and executed an escape plan knowing 100% that the leak would change his life forever.

But much as with January 6th riot, the modern Maga types seemingly think of politics like some sort of WWE drama, and don't connect it to real world consequences. That poor dumb fuck could well be spending the next few decades understanding the difference between the fantasy and the reality of State interests.
 
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It's one of those weird quirks of 20th century migration that Massachusetts has a big Portuguese community.
I met an old boy ( Portuguese) over here who had lived in New York for 30 odds years and he was one of the most racist people I’ve met here . Said as he’d fought in the Angolan war he was used to fighting blacks .
 
I think they somehow see the army as separate, you get it in those films where the bold hero goes up against shadowy deep state types.
It's why some people look at you funny when you refer to the armed forces as part of the public sector.
 
I think they somehow see the army as separate, you get it in those films where the bold hero goes up against shadowy deep state types.
It's a rich melange of bullshit.

Well, the loyalty of his army corps is clearly going to be tested over the forthcoming days.
 
Really nothing highlights the LARPy nature of the far-right's "deep state" shtick quite so well as this incident. If you genuinely believe the state is looking for an excuse to destroy your political tendency that absolute last thing you do is pass on photos of secret documents to your mates on discord like some sort of card trading game. I mean fuck when Spies for Peace found their way into a military bunker with secret plans in it in '63 they used gloves when making pamphlets of the resulting expose to avoid fingerprints, and threw the typewriter they'd used in the river. Snowden made and executed an escape plan knowing 100% that the leak would change his life forever.

But much as with January 6th riot, the modern Maga types seemingly think of politics like some sort of WWE drama, and don't connect it to real world consequences. That poor dumb fuck could well be spending the next few decades understanding the difference between the fantasy and the reality of State interests.
As a coincidence, another Member of Spies For Peace has recently revealed himself

 
The news on the Portuguese news channel CM covering the security leak had a photo of Jack Teixeira with the ticker tape caption underneath of “Jack Texixera , a racist , has a Portuguese uncle “ 😂😂
And in a way, don't all racists have a Portuguese uncle?
 
BBC’s Russian service has teamed up with a Russian news org and confirmed the identity of over 20,000 Russian war casualties. They estimate this is only about 50% of the total, based on number of new graves in a number of settlements. There‘s also at least another 8000 deaths from Luhansk and Donetsk forces known about (up to a certain date).

Lots of detail and a long read, not available on the main BBC site in English yet but if your browser does translation then worth a read.

Более 20 000 установленных погибших: что известно о потерях России в Украине к апрелю - BBC News Русская служба

Since January 2023, the names of an average of 700 dead have been known weekly. During the first year of the invasion, Russian sources reported about 250-300 deaths every week.
We are talking only about the data that we manage to find and verify from open sources, that is, the real number of losses is definitely even greater.
By mid-April, we had managed to confirm the death of 20,451 Russian military. A third of all these losses are those who were not associated with the army before the invasion - volunteers, mobilized, prisoners and newly recruited PMC employees.
We assume that our list may contain at least half as many names of the dead as actually buried in Russia. We came to this conclusion by studying the situation in cemeteries in more than 65 Russian settlements over the past 14 months.
Consequently, according to the most conservative estimates, during the invasion of Ukraine, Russia could have lost 41,000 people dead.
Russia's total irrevocable losses (that is, the number of those who were out of order due to injury or death or missing) can be at least 184,000 people.
This figure is based on observations by the U.S. Naval Analysis Center, according to which an average of about three and a half wounded per Russian soldier killed during the war in Ukraine.
This figure does not include those who fought on the side of Russia as part of the "people's militias" of Donetsk and Lugansk. In addition, it is not possible to determine even about the approximately number of military missing.
According to confirmed data alone, since the beginning of the war, Russia has lost more than 3,230 elite specialists: soldiers and officers of special forces units, paratroopers, marines. It took years of training and millions of dollars to prepare them. Among the dead were 134 military pilots. These are piece specialists who require at least 7 years of the most complex training.
 
BBC’s Russian service has teamed up with a Russian news org and confirmed the identity of over 20,000 Russian war casualties. They estimate this is only about 50% of the total, based on number of new graves in military burial sites on satellite images. There‘s also at least another 8000 deaths from Luhansk and Donetsk forces known about (up to a certain date).

Lots of detail and a long read, not available on the main BBC site in English yet but if your browser does translation then worth a read.

Более 20 000 установленных погибших: что известно о потерях России в Украине к апрелю - BBC News Русская служба
So 40,000 rather lower than many of the figures that have been bandied about
 
So 40,000 rather lower than many of the figures that have been bandied about
The leaked American intelligence estimated 43,000 deaths, so that matches the 48,000 casualties (including Luhansk and Donetsk) pretty closely.

Non fatal Russian casualties therefore come to well over 100,000, using standard KIA to WIA ratios, which again, tracks pretty closely to most of the estimates I've seen.

Granted, there are a few rather enthusiastic over estimators though.
 
So 40,000 rather lower than many of the figures that have been bandied about
Certainly a lot lower than the official Ukrainian figures, but then it’s not clear if those account for deaths or include wounded/prisoners - that would be closer to the 170,000 (I think) that they’re currently running with - BBC actually has that at over 200,000. And some of the UA figures are definitely bollocks, particularly aircraft losses.

There’s also 13000 from the DPR/LPR to add to that list,

On the basis of open sources, we can talk about the death of at least 8,000 military "people's militias" of the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass.
In addition, the BBC found more than 5,300 messages and posts of people who are looking for their male relatives who found themselves in the ranks of the armies of the DPR and LPR and have not been in touch for a long time. Some of those who were looking for in the first months of the war have already returned home with a "cargo of 200".
Even if we take into account only publicly available data, the total losses of those who are fighting on the side of Russia can exceed 54,000 people killed.
Noted that the total figure is not far off the estimate of the recently leaked documents (43,000 I think was upper estimate for RU losses - but that document was from a couple of months ago, BBC totals up to mid April)
 
A few days ago Russia pushed through new laws making it harder for those eligible for conscription to dodge it and tougher penalties for those that do.

 
Certainly a lot lower than the official Ukrainian figures, but then it’s not clear if those account for deaths or include wounded/prisoners - that would be closer to the 170,000 (I think) that they’re currently running with - BBC actually has that at over 200,000. And some of the UA figures are definitely bollocks, particularly aircraft losses.

There’s also 13000 from the DPR/LPR to add to that list,


Noted that the total figure is not far off the estimate of the recently leaked documents (43,000 I think was upper estimate for RU losses - but that document was from a couple of months ago, BBC totals up to mid April)
If it accounts for 50% of casualties and they've got there by counting graves then obvs they're not on about people with blighty wounds or captured
 
Certainly a lot lower than the official Ukrainian figures, but then it’s not clear if those account for deaths or include wounded/prisoners
They always use the word 'liquidated' which while it might sound unclear has a completely unambiguous meaning of killed.
 
They always use the word 'liquidated' which while it might sound unclear has a completely unambiguous meaning of killed.
I think they usually say eliminated, or at least, they do on their official Twitter. Slightly more ambiguous than liquidated, though perhaps not by much.



The 'eliminated' figures do match fairly closely to total casualties (KIA and WIA) if you extrapolate from the KIA estimates above though.
 
I think they usually say eliminated, or at least, they do on their official Twitter. Slightly more ambiguous than liquidated, though perhaps not by much.



The 'eliminated' figures do match fairly closely to total casualties (KIA and WIA) if you extrapolate from the KIA estimates above though.

That's changed then. I remember looking it up.
 
If they've got there by counting graves then they're nowhere near accounting for all their dead either. I fear that figure may ever only be an estimate, sadly.
They’ve been quite clear that they’re not likely to have counted all deaths, they have verified a certain amount (20,821) and have derived a further estimate based on the number of graves in 65 places, presumably by comparing these to the number of verified military deaths reported from those locations (would assume 50% is a fairly rough and rounded figure). This won’t account for the missing, buried under rubble or atomised in exploding vehicles etc.
 
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