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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

LynnDoyleCooper said:
More mutterings about a no-fly zone coming from various quarters - UK ex-general on BBC and others.

Is this even an outside possibility if Ukraine gets pummelled by air and heavy artillery and has heavy civilian casualties?
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Dunno.

I know that pictures of dead kids have an impact on public opinion, and that relentless pictures of dead kids can have a big impact on public opinion - especially if they look like your kids.

I remember Bosnia.
 
kebabking said:
Dunno.

I know that pictures of dead kids have an impact on public opinion, and that relentless pictures of dead kids can have a big impact on public opinion - especially if they look like your kids.

I remember Bosnia.
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That was what General Barons (ex-head of JFC) was saying on BBC Newsnight pretty much, when we start seeing pictures of hundreds of dead civilians there is going to be lots of pressure to do more...
 
andysays said:
As others have said, it would be a serious intervention which would effectively mean NATO committing itself to actively defending Ukraine.

If they decide to declare a No Fly Zone, that's surely tantamount to declaring war on Russia?
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Yes, that's what is being said. But the fact it's still early days (both for Ukraine and Europe and others) and it's being discussed as a possibility is an indicator of what's going on here.

And at what point is it going to become more than an outside possibility. If Putin flattens Ukraine? If he takes it and then makes noises towards other countries?
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
Yes, that's what is being said. But the fact it's still early days (both for Ukraine and Europe and others) and it's being discussed as a possibility is an indicator of what's going on here.

And at what point is it going to become more than an outside possibility. If Putin flattens Ukraine? If he takes it and then makes noises towards other countries?
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I don't know what the answer is to that question, but I'm suggesting that if it does happen it (probably) won't simply be a question of declaring a No Fly Zone over Ukraine, it will be NATO declaring war on Putin's Russia, with everything that entails.

However bad the situation is now, that escalation would be a whole lot worse, which is why I hope some sort of solution can be found which doesn't push us right over the edge of the abyss.
 
Is a no fly zone a hugely different thing to sending fighter jets etc because it means it has to be other countries’ soldiers (not Ukraine’s) shooting at Russian planes ?
 
ska invita said:
To stop making the same "mistakes"? (Not that these are in anyway slip-ups.)
To put pressure on our own governments, and understand what it is they are doing in our names?
To stop them from doing it again? To stop them from fucking it up right now?
Its not just 30 years ago - the dynamic continues on and on and on. Repeat offenders.
Precisely too fend off nuclear annihilation. Instead our current foreign secretary is urging people to join the foreign fucking legion!!
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I still don't see what it serves right now, at this very moment, other than an academic pissing contest. I agree with you that it's useful to do in general but there's a tone of 'well if NATO hadn't done that then Russia wouldn't have done this' and I just don't believe it.
 
A380 said:
The EU sent fighter aircraft in the form of MiGs presumably there would have been a package of spares, consumables and ordinance with them but they would be flown by Ukrainians.

One for experts in international law: could the EU or nation states ‘get away with’ sending Typhoons or Lightnings with commercial / PMC pilots. Ex military people who are now civilians who would contract as mercenaries to the Ukrainian government? ( Even if the ink was still wet on their military discharge papers).

Didn’t the UK government supply the ground attack version of the Jet Provast with pilots to Aden in a similar scheme in one of our lovely end of empire wars?

For the trainspotters: Would A10s or Apaches last more than 20 minutes there?
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Typhoons (regardless of the dubious legal status of the pilot) would have to operate from NATO bases in Poland or Romania since they need fuel, ammo and maintenance expertise the Ukrainians don't have. The man in the seat is just the last one in a long line of people that keep it in the air. I can't see anyone let alone Putin buying the Mission Impossible "We Deny All Knowledge" Schtick.
The thing about them getting all this old Russian kit that was just cluttering up the back of the hangar was that they could roll them out onto the tarmac and leave a sticky on the nose to the effect that the keys were behind the sun blind.
 
bimble said:
Is a no fly zone a hugely different thing to sending fighter jets etc because with ‘no fly zone’ means it has to be other countries soldiers shooting Russian planes ?
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I think it's generally accepted that a No Fly Zone would need to be enforced by NATO
 
RE: the stuff about Putin's mental state that was being discussed earlier. I was surprised by the attack because my opinion of VP had always been that he was a bad, bad guy, but he wasn't a fool (or so I thought). I'd say that rather than the "balance of his mind being disturbed", it's more that his badness worked him into a position where he had to make the kind of gamble only a fool would consider. . .
 
bimble said:
Is a no fly zone a hugely different thing to sending fighter jets etc because it means it has to be other countries’ soldiers (not Ukraine’s) shooting at Russian planes ?
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Yes, very different.

Supplied planes + Ukraine pilots = Ukraine shooting at Russians, which is pretty much where we are now.

NATO planes = NATO shooting at Russians, which is a whole new thing, war with Russia.
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
Yes, very different.

Supplied planes + Ukraine pilots = Ukraine shooting at Russians, which is pretty much where we are now.

NATO planes = NATO shooting at Russians, which is a whole new thing, war with Russia.
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ok. I was surprised that supplying fighter jets and so on doesn't count as being involved in the war. Like if i was in a fight and you handed my adversary a lethal weapon i'd count you as a belligerent. But I see.
 
bimble said:
Is a no fly zone a hugely different thing to sending fighter jets etc because it means it has to be other countries’ soldiers (not Ukraine’s) shooting at Russian planes ?
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Yes, because it would be British/whatever pilots acting under British/whatever orders in aircraft owned by the British/whatever state.

If I give you a brick, and you throw it through someone's window, it's your problem.
 
bimble said:
Like if i was in a fight and you handed my adversary a lethal weapon i'd count you as a belligerent. But I see.
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Sorry if my earlier post was simplistic and obvious! I kind of agree with what you say above, and I expect at some point with funneling a fuck tonne of weapons to Ukraine (especially if they're proving decisive in the fighting) Putin might as well.
 
bimble said:
ok. I was surprised that supplying fighter jets and so on doesn't count as being involved in the war. Like if i was in a fight and you handed my adversary a lethal weapon i'd count you as a belligerent. But I see.
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I think you're right, tbh.

Whilst there's a clear difference between supplying Russian made planes from the EU for use by Ukrainian pilots, and NATO pilots enforcing a no-fly zone in Typhoons and F16s, I doubt the Russians would be particularly swayed by the nuance, and I expect that's what's led to the climbdown over supplying the jets.
 
Idris2002 said:
This is the Russian anthropologists statement I alluded to above:

"
To the Government of the Russian Federation

We, a group of Russian ethnographers and anthropologists, protest against the military operation of the Russian Federation on the Ukrainian territory.
We, Russian anthropologists and ethnographers, have devoted our lives to understanding the cultural and social diversity of humankind, and conduct field research in various parts of the world studying social relations and cultural dynamics. We know first-hand how people live during and after wars and political catastrophes. Therefore, we protest when the use of complex humanitarian issues is a pretext of political manipulations and military conflicts.
No war can be justified by the search for the historical truth. War cripples humans’ souls. War causes mass loss of life and entails the loss of significant cultural values. War is a moral homicide of present and future generations. The Russian-Ukrainian war leads Russia to international isolation, the damage to its economy, culture and science. The war dooms Russia to hopelessly lagging behind the rest of the world, to a sharp worsening of living standards and, consequently, to the rise of social and ethnic tensions that may lead to internal conflicts.

Therefore, we demand:
(1) To immediately cease the military operation on the Ukrainian territory;
(2) To immediately withdraw troops from the Ukrainian territory;
(3) To start direct negotiations on the ways and timing of the de-escalation of the conflict with the Ukrainian government on an equal footing and without any preconditions.

We emphasize that this appeal is a voluntary position of a group of ethnographers and anthropologists, who care about the future of Russia."
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According to Socialisticheskaya Alternativa, there have been a lot of these kinds of open letters. In fact they are saying that a majority of people in Russia may be against the war.

"While people are getting angry, the regime is trying to stop discussion. Ten media outlets have been told to stop using the words “war” and “intervention” when covering Ukraine, or they will be shut down. Access to Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter are being restricted. The number arrested for participating in anti-war protests is now almost 3,000. But opposition to the war in Russia appears to be growing. Letters written by different groups, medical workers, teachers, students, IT workers, artistic workers are collecting thousands of signatures, while a general petition against the war has already been signed by a million people."

internationalsocialist.net

Imperialist Aggression || War in Ukraine — Update

26 February 2022 | No to the war in Ukraine! Troops should return home. Build an anti-war movement in the workplaces and universities. This is the call being made by Socialisticheskaya Alternativa in Russia.
internationalsocialist.net internationalsocialist.net
 
SpackleFrog said:
According to Socialisticheskaya Alternativa, there have been a lot of these kinds of open letters. In fact they are saying that a majority of people in Russia may be against the war.

"While people are getting angry, the regime is trying to stop discussion. Ten media outlets have been told to stop using the words “war” and “intervention” when covering Ukraine, or they will be shut down. Access to Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter are being restricted. The number arrested for participating in anti-war protests is now almost 3,000. But opposition to the war in Russia appears to be growing. Letters written by different groups, medical workers, teachers, students, IT workers, artistic workers are collecting thousands of signatures, while a general petition against the war has already been signed by a million people."

internationalsocialist.net

Imperialist Aggression || War in Ukraine — Update

26 February 2022 | No to the war in Ukraine! Troops should return home. Build an anti-war movement in the workplaces and universities. This is the call being made by Socialisticheskaya Alternativa in Russia.
internationalsocialist.net internationalsocialist.net
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And some prick in a comfy London office thinks he can snipe and sneer at these people.

(E2A: just in case anyone gets the wrong idea, SpackleFrog is not the prick alluded to here).
 
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