Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

Hard to know the truth of this of course, but it wouldn’t surprise me:

Russian amphibious assault on Odessa seems to have failed this morning as marines refused at the final hurdle and mutinied as they approached the beaches - couldn't face attacking such a Russian city, supposedly.

There's a nice irony there.

Pinch of salt etc but it is very widely reported:

 

[Diamond]

There are other reports of desertion too from some of the land forces.

V interesting - the Ukrainian/Russian family relationship working against Putin, it would seem.

 

[Pickman's model]

There are other reports of desertion too from some of the land forces.

V interesting - the Ukrainian/Russian family relationship working against Putin, it would seem.

tbh i think what's more working against him is the absence of a really powerful casus belli

 

[Flavour]

not sure we can believe these russian mutiny reports tbh

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Of course its about Russian imperialism and a "distorted" view of the world. Russia is the aggressor.
NATO is also about imperialism and has it own "distorted" view of the world.
Of course Poland isnt about to invade Russia! I dont see what difference that makes.
Yes there's a defensive aspect to NATO, if thats what you are getting at - all military might has that aspect. But lets not forget the empire building and strategising that currently see Iran surrounded by US bases! Or recognise how much strategic importance has been placed on Ukraine.
Its all a very dangerous game, and NATO is a player in it too.
What is the ROOT cause? Imperialist mentalities.

We've been through the NATO has a role to play stuff already and I dont want to repeat that.
But maybe worth saying this: NATO continues to have a massive role in this situation right now and could yet make an aggressive mis-step that gets many more people killed.

Right now the killing is being done by the Russian army. It's the Russian army that has the massive role, not anyone else. I've got no time for NATO. Anyone who possesses nuclear weapons is prepared to use them, which automatically makes them a nasty piece of work. I don't have a high opinion of the Chinese government either, or the Turkish, or Iranian, or British, or American. So what?

 

[RileyOBlimey]

not sure we can believe these russian mutiny reports tbh

Indeed, we have a thread for unsubstantiated rumours please keep unverified stuff in there.

 

[bimble]

support how, given it seems pretty unlikely you'd be able to actually get there even if you wanted to.

Chances of it are better than zero that’s all. I should’ve not mentioned it tho.

 

[Diamond]

Fascinating watching Chinese diplomacy - playing such a delicate game but they seem now to be finding their voice:

 

[platinumsage]

Indeed, we have a thread for unsubstantiated rumours please keep unverified stuff in there.

This is substantiated - in my post I quoted both a Ukrainian journalist and Ilya Ponomarev, who is a Russian politician. You might think he's lying about contact with relatives of Russian marines, or that the relatives are lying. But this claim is not without evidence.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

RT propaganda isn't even trying. Just flicked on to hear interviews with Ukrainian prisoners about how well they're been treated and how it compares to the local priest's treatment in 2014 when he was imprisoned by Ukraine... A priest FFS!

 

[elbows]

The propaganda war looks like its about to feature additional dimensions.

The Russian defence ministry has issued a warning to Kyiv residents that it is preparing to hit targets in the Ukrainian capital.

In a statement issued on Tuesday afternoon, Russian officials said their forces are preparing to launch "high-precision strikes" against "technological centres of the Ukrainian Security Service and the 72nd main PsyOps centre in Kyiv".

"We urge Ukrainian citizens who are being used by nationalists to carry out provocations against Russia, as well as Kyiv residents residing near relay stations to leave their home," the statement added.

Officials claimed the strikes are being carried out to "prevent information attacks against Russia".

And

As Russia warns of attacks in Kyiv (see previous post), Ukrainian defence minister Oleksiy Reznikov has warned of a possible "psychological attack" by Russia.

Writing on Facebook, he claimed Russia was first planning to disrupt communications.

"After that, there will be a massive distribution of fake news about Ukrainian military-political leadership allegedly agreeing to capitulation," he wrote.

"To substantiate the fake news, they will publish photos of signed documents and a fake video. This is a lie."

He added:

They will not get it! There will be no capitulation! Only victory!"

13:28 and 13:33 entries o the BBC live updates page. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

 

[Raheem]

Fascinating watching Chinese diplomacy - playing such a delicate game but they seem now to be finding their voice:

Is "deep regret" really the Chinese finding their voice? You'd hardly expect them to say they were "so, so happy".

 

[JimW]

The foreign ministry formulation for their stance on the war is one of the most mealy mouthed bits of Chinese of the decade and that's with stiff competition.

 

[LDC]

More mutterings about a no-fly zone coming from various quarters - UK ex-general on BBC and others.

Is this even an outside possibility if Ukraine gets pummelled by air and heavy artillery and has heavy civilian casualties?

 

[Spymaster]

The propaganda war looks like its about to feature additional dimensions.



And



13:28 and 13:33 entries o the BBC live updates page. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

Yes. Here it comes.

 

[frogwoman]

A no fly zone would bring us into the war tho.

 

[Aladdin]

bridges.

That's very interesting gosub

 

[bimble]

View attachment 312220

This is now not happening apparently. “Decided not to” I just read. Wtf does that mean?

 

[LDC]

A no fly zone would bring us into the war tho.

Yeah totally, Johnson clearly ruled it out, as have other people. But feels like that could shift?

 

[Pickman's model]

This is now not happening apparently. “Decided not to” I just read. Wtf does that mean?

they changed their minds

 

[bimble]

they changed their minds

Their sending fighter jets was all over the news yesterday and now they’ve changed their minds. Why.

 

[ska invita]

It's simplistic (wrong actually...) to say that NATO, and the EU were being used by the US and western European states as an anti-Russian tool - there was a very short period when Russian accession to NATO was being talked about, but it lasted less than a year, and it tailed off because Russia wanted to be treated as the big dog in NATO east of Berlin, with a Russian veto over where US forces could go, who the eastern states could buy their gear from. It was all very 'Spheres of Influence', and Russia got very arsey and threw it's toys out of the pram when it was made clear that that wasn't how Russian membership was going to go.

It was the eastern states who banged on NATO's, and the EU's door, not the other way round - and it was because, for all the lefty talk about the fall of the Soviet Union, for the eastern states it was simply window dressing, it was about Russia, meet the new Russia, same as the old Russia.

They knew, felt it in their bones, that in the end Russia would be back - 5 years, 10 years, 30 years, it didn't matter - Russia that doesn't really believe them to be proper countries, doesn't believe them to be equals, places that exist to act as buffer zones for Russia, places for Russia to exercise more or less control over as the situation demanded.

NATO has become anti-Russian organisation, but In only in the same way that your front door is an anti-burgler device...

Amusingly, NATO has long held off acting as it's eastern states would wish because it sort to avoid pushing Russia into Chinas bossom as a client state - there was a widespread maxim, until quite recently, that Russia had perhaps 10 years before it would be forced to decide whether it wanted to be a European state, or a Chinese vassal state. NATO hoped it would decide to be a European state, not least because that would keep the Chinese somr distance from NATO's border.

What will happen now, with Putin backed into a corner with the economy tanking, and China seemingly not overly pleased with their partners actions, is anyone's guess...

That is broadly true - I dont want to come across as a headbanger here - definitely the most eastern members of NATO never stopped fearing Russia, not least because it was clear that there has never really been a big culture change at the Russian ruling class level. In Poland the ruling Law & Order party still make hay off claiming to root out the old Communist networks - networks that remain in Moscow.

However there are ways to try and neutralise threat and competition, and that hasn't happened in any meaningful way - the opposite. From what I can see the competition is being played as fiercely as ever. Welcoming Russian oligarchs into the global yacht club clearly doesn't actually change anything.
NATO is just a defensive door? I think thats very simplistic.

 

[Pickman's model]

Why

there you're on your own, i don't know

 

[platinumsage]

there you're on your own, i don't know

Fog of war perhaps, or lazy journos

 

[bimble]

Reading this closely it’s possible they were never actually promised

European plan to donate fighter jets to Ukraine collapses

The dissolution of the deal comes as European countries lined up Monday to announce new weapons packages for Ukraine, from anti-armor and anti-air rockets to artillery and medical supplies.

www.politico.com

 

[A380]

The EU sent fighter aircraft in the form of MiGs presumably there would have been a package of spares, consumables and ordinance with them but they would be flown by Ukrainians.

One for experts in international law: could the EU or nation states ‘get away with’ sending Typhoons or Lightnings with commercial / PMC pilots. Ex military people who are now civilians who would contract as mercenaries to the Ukrainian government? ( Even if the ink was still wet on their military discharge papers).

Didn’t the UK government supply the ground attack version of the Jet Provast with pilots to Aden in a similar scheme in one of our lovely end of empire wars?

For the trainspotters: Would A10s or Apaches last more than 20 minutes there?

 

[Pickman's model]

The EU sent fighter aircraft in the form of MiGs presumably there would have been a package of spares, consumables and ordinance with them but they would be flown by Ukrainians.

One for experts in international law: could the EU or inaction states ‘get away with’ sending Typhoons or Lightnings with commercial / PMC pilots. Ex military people who are now civilians who would contract as mercenaries to the Ukrainian government?

Didn’t the UK government supply the ground attack version of the Jet Provast to Aden and pilots in a similar scheme in one of our lovely end of empire wars?

For the trainspotters: Would A10s or Apaches last more than 20 minutes there?

yes

 

[A380]

yes

Thanks.

 

[RileyOBlimey]

This is substantiated - in my post I quoted both a Ukrainian journalist and Ilya Ponomarev, who is a Russian politician. You might think he's lying about contact with relatives of Russian marines, or that the relatives are lying. But this claim is not without evidence.

The reason I’m suspicious is this section…


Specifically, “a large number of UAVs”. It’s not clear from the above text which side is claimed to have these in the sky. We know Ukraine has very limited numbers of the Turkish model and their home brewed mini drones are very small. Neither Russian or Ukrainian drones will be easy to spot. So I sense a bit of bullshit.

 

[ska invita]

What point does it serve right now? To wag one's finger and go 'well if you hadn't had done that 30 years ago we wouldn't be here now, now you reap what you sow.' Maybe save the historical analysis until after the fact we've, hopefully, fended off nuclear annihilation.

To stop making the same "mistakes"? (Not that these are in anyway slip-ups.)
To put pressure on our own governments, and understand what it is they are doing in our names?
To stop them from doing it again? To stop them from fucking it up right now?
Its not just 30 years ago - the dynamic continues on and on and on. Repeat offenders.
Precisely too fend off nuclear annihilation. Instead our current foreign secretary is urging people to join the foreign fucking legion!!