Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[emanymton]

Lose 1% of your troops per day and you’re going to be in trouble pretty quickly.

Also Pickmans has said that the conscripts are used for non combat roles only so a chunk of those troops could not be combat capable.

Having said that I think the issue the for the Ukrainians is maintaining this level of resistance. I would think fatigue will start to set in soon.

 

[elbows]

We keep getting figures for he number of Russian personnel killed but nothing for Ukrainian personnel. While the number of Russians killed has political significance without the figure for the Ukrainians it does not tell us very much about how the fighting is going.

The figures Ukraine keeps routinely publishing regarding Russian losses have been increasing in recent days at the rate of approximately 1000 per day when it comes to personnel. And that particular figure apparently isnt just deaths, its a combination of both deaths and those wounded. And I havent found any of the opposing sides propaganda of this form yet, so I cant balance the two sides propaganda in a vague to attempt to estimate where the truth might be found somewhere between the two. Ukraine has indeed not been keen to provide much detail about their own losses. They provide some numbers of deaths but there doesnt tend to be a breakdown of those numbers into military and civilian. And I dont remember seeing any images of destroyed Ukrainian military equipment yet, we are mostly only getting one side of the picture so far and right now I wouldnt know where to start if I wanted to try to look beyond that.

 

[8ball]

i don't think he's left himself any wriggle room and will double down. where that ends, who knows.

I really, really hope you're wrong, but that seems to fit the pattern as I see it.
I think being deposed from within becomes the only hope of avoiding major catastrophe if you are correct.

 

[Pickman's model]

I really, really hope you're wrong, but that seems to fit the pattern as I see it.
I think being deposed from within becomes the only hope of avoiding major catastrophe if you are correct.

And only if his successor is more pacific

 

[Artaxerxes]

Lose your logistics and resupply setup and the rest of what you have becomes useless very quickly too.

Lots of twitter threads telling people to do that, don't attack tanks or front line if you don't have to. Hit the second waves and logistics vehicles.

 

[bluescreen]

And only if his successor is more pacific

Or more realpolitikal.

 

[8ball]

And only if his successor is more pacific

There would seem to be an opening for someone with strong ties to both Russia and Ukraine and a willingness to bring the parties together.
Yeah, grasping straws, I know.

 

[Aladdin]

A security specialist who hails from West Cork has predicated that Russia President Vladimir Putin will be assassinated by his own people.

Dr Andy Scollick, who is a European Defence consultant, has previously worked in defence analysis as well as advising and was working across sectors in Ukraine as well as other European nations from 2014 to 2019

The consultant has been following the current situation with Russia closely, and today made a "hypothesis" that Putin would be killed by his own people "within the next seven days".

West Cork security expert predicts Putin will be 'assassinated by own people'

Worrying news broke today that the Russian Federation's nuclear deterrence forcers were being put on high alert

www.corkbeo.ie

Corkbeo...cant beat them.

 

[bimble]

we are mostly only getting one side of the picture so far

Pretty much exclusively, yes. If there are Russian accounts on social media who are posting anything to counter the prevailing narrative its completely invisible from here anyway.

 

[8ball]

Lots of twitter threads telling people to do that, don't attack tanks or front line if you don't have to. Hit the second waves and logistics vehicles.

Yeah, exactly what I was thinking. I think it came from the Ukrainian Government that people should just let the tanks pass and light up the supply tankers.
A lot of the Ukrainian forces know how to use the Russian equipment very well indeed.

 

[planetgeli]

Lose 1% of your troops per day - or have the opposition saying that is what is happening - and if I were an angry nationalist wanting my country's empire back then I think I might release a blitzkrieg from above and below pretty soon. Gloves off time coming soon.

 

[spitfire]

...

 

[Pickman's model]

A security specialist who hails from West Cork has predicated that Russia President Vladimir Putin will be assassinated by his own people.

Dr Andy Scollick, who is a European Defence consultant, has previously worked in defence analysis as well as advising and was working across sectors in Ukraine as well as other European nations from 2014 to 2019

The consultant has been following the current situation with Russia closely, and today made a "hypothesis" that Putin would be killed by his own people "within the next seven days".

West Cork security expert predicts Putin will be 'assassinated by own people'

Worrying news broke today that the Russian Federation's nuclear deterrence forcers were being put on high alert

www.corkbeo.ie

Corkbeo...cant beat them.

Dr scollick, last seen hiking in the Urals, ...

 

[8ball]

Lose 1% of your troops per day - or have the opposition saying that is what is happening - and if I were an angry nationalist wanting my country's empire back then I think I might release a blitzkrieg from above and below pretty soon. Gloves off time coming soon.

To me, this would cement generations of hatred and wouldn't fit his idea of uniting the glorious empire of old that had been split by conniving foreign actors unless he had basically given up and decided to burn the whole shooting match to the ground, in which case we're all in very big trouble.

 

[Pickman's model]

To me, this would cement generations of hatred and wouldn't fit his idea of uniting the glorious empire of old that had been split by conniving foreign actors unless he had basically given up and decided to burn the whole shooting match to the ground, in which case we're all in very big trouble.

We're all in very big trouble

 

[8ball]

And if they don't then there's handy how to guides available on line, (I believe the kids call them "hacks" m'lud).

I don't know more than a few words of Russian, but is she turning on the heating at 22 seconds in?

 

[spitfire]

I don't know more than a few words of Russian, but is she turning on the heating at 22 seconds in?

It looks pretty fucking cold tbf.

 

[brogdale]

I don't know more than a few words of Russian, but is she turning on the heating at 22 seconds in?

tbf, I fucking would.

 

[8ball]

It looks pretty fucking cold tbf.

I'd have probably closed the hatch.
Maybe the previous occupants were fans of that pickled fish stuff.

 

[bluescreen]

A security specialist who hails from West Cork has predicated that Russia President Vladimir Putin will be assassinated by his own people.

Dr Andy Scollick, who is a European Defence consultant, has previously worked in defence analysis as well as advising and was working across sectors in Ukraine as well as other European nations from 2014 to 2019

The consultant has been following the current situation with Russia closely, and today made a "hypothesis" that Putin would be killed by his own people "within the next seven days".

West Cork security expert predicts Putin will be 'assassinated by own people'

Worrying news broke today that the Russian Federation's nuclear deterrence forcers were being put on high alert

www.corkbeo.ie

Corkbeo...cant beat them.

While I have zero confidence that a successor would be much of an improvement at least it would be an opportunity for a reset: 'That was Putin, who was very ill and suffering delusions in his final days. This is the new regime. We can put all that behind us. We have silenced our guns. Now we can talk sensibly, please.'

 

[Artaxerxes]

I'd have probably closed the hatch.

This is why your carbon footprint is lower.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Will people please stop talking in Aircraftese.

Oscar Kilo.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

 

[ska invita]

it's already ending in tears

it's very bad for the ukrainians right now. but down the line it's very very bad for all of us because while this is going on the ipcc climate change report is out today saying how fucked everything is. the simple truth is that no matter the rights or wrongs of wars, we can't afford them any more if we hope to keep below 1.5c. the human costs of this war are bad enough, in ukraine and to be seen in the countries that rely on food from ukraine. and we'll all suffer from the environmental costs of the war.

"The war in Ukraine should encourage the world to accelerate the switch to renewable energy, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has said."

<<,good point tbf

 

[Dogsauce]

Pretty much exclusively, yes. If there are Russian accounts on social media who are posting anything to counter the prevailing narrative its completely invisible from here anyway.

They can’t afford the data roaming charges for their smartphones.

(probably some truth in this, how would frontline Russian troops share images while in a foreign land? How will they keep phones charged etc.? Not a problem for the native population).

 

[Aladdin]

Dr scollick, last seen hiking in the Urals, ...

 

[Aladdin]

I'd have probably closed the hatch.
Maybe the previous occupants were fans of that pickled fish stuff.

Or shit their pants


Eta.
Sorry if that is tasteless.
Probably some young Russian kid was in that tank.
☹

 

[Dogsauce]

Question for those who might know such things - will the ‘west’ be sharing satellite images and related intel with Ukraine, and diplomatically are there no issues with doing this? Providing forewarning of attacks, showing troop concentrations and convoys etc.?

 

[bimble]

They can’t afford the data roaming charges for their smartphones.

(probably some truth in this, how would frontline Russian troops share images while in a foreign land? How will they keep phones charged etc.? Not a problem for the native population).

true. There might be all sorts of stuff for domestic consumption, like pre-recorded videos of women in national dress throwing petals at their liberators, idk, but its not visible here.
They seem to have been completely wiped out in the english-language propaganda war far as i can see anyway, even before the paddington bear story broke.

 

[8ball]

Question for those who might know such things - will the ‘west’ be sharing satellite images and related intel with Ukraine, and diplomatically are there no issues with doing this? Providing forewarning of attacks, showing troop concentrations and convoys etc.?

There was a US space company that shared some images of a massive convoy yesterday with location and expected route.
This was last night and the pics were in daylight, so I think this would have been shared with the Ukrainians some time earlier.