Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

If I could find a way to make the points I make without coming across as pompous then I would be most interested in doing so. I would love to receive useful tips about how I could make posts that include as much detail and explanation as I like to make without coming across as pompous. And I certainly wish I could achieve the same results with far less words.

I say I a lot in my posts because I want to make it very clear that I am just sharing my own opinions, that I am speaking for myself as an individual rather than using words which suggest that what I'm saying is the absolute truth of the matter rather than just my own personal interpretation of events. I am explaining how I think about these things, and why I have reached the conclusions I have.

swear more and take the piss out of spymaster. that ought to do it.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah, I think if he does that it really does mean the end is potentially very bad for everyone.

it's already ending in tears

it's very bad for the ukrainians right now. but down the line it's very very bad for all of us because while this is going on the ipcc climate change report is out today saying how fucked everything is. the simple truth is that no matter the rights or wrongs of wars, we can't afford them any more if we hope to keep below 1.5c. the human costs of this war are bad enough, in ukraine and to be seen in the countries that rely on food from ukraine. and we'll all suffer from the environmental costs of the war.

 

[Raheem]

Putin etc are not getting left with many bearable options now really are they?

Short to medium term he could call some ceasefire and negotiate some concessions that he can look like he's 'won' something (DPR and LPR and maybe some pledge for Ukraine not to join NATO) or push much harder militarily to 'win' more widely and risk massive internal issues in Russia and overseas opprobrium and more sanctions (which will fuck Russia internally even more). If he did the former now he could even probably crawl back into the international fold in a few years. But what else is an option?

I don't think he's going to get concessions from Ukraine any time soon.

Think he may try to have a ceasefire to buy time.

 

[Bingoman]

Ukraine have signed application for EU membership , Putin wont like that

 

[ska invita]

Ukraine have signed application for EU membership , Putin wont like that

Ukrexit campaign starts now!!

 

[Artaxerxes]

Ukrexit campaign starts now!!

Urexit, Ufixit

 

[Pickman's model]

Ukraine have signed application for EU membership , Putin wont like that

can't see it happening any faster: they're not even on the eu list of potential candidates Joining the EU

 

[8ball]

the simple truth is that no matter the rights or wrongs of wars, we can't afford them any more if we hope to keep below 1.5c.

I think the 1.5C ship has most likely sailed regardless, but carbon-neutral wars would certainly be a tricky logistical proposition.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

id laugh more if id not spend half my day trying to find flights into Svo and Msq because people don't understand their is a bloody war on

Turkish still flying to both, as is Emirates to Moscow...

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't think he's going to get concessions from Ukraine any time soon.

Think he may try to have a ceasefire to buy time.

that's not how it works. there's only one side here who gains from a ceasefire, and that's ukraine.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think the 1.5C ship has most likely sailed regardless, but carbon-neutral wars would certainly be a tricky logistical proposition.

yeh we're on borrowed time now anyway imo given the melting permafrost but while there's moonlight and laughter and love and romance let's try and keep that hope alive

 

[Ax^]

Turkish still flying to both, as is Emirates to Moscow...

Turkish is cargo embargo to MSQ and every other airline hate MSQ methinks did not try pegasus air

but you right EK still going to DME did not spot that ta

 

[Raheem]

that's not how it works. there's only one side here who gains from a ceasefire, and that's ukraine.

That would be true according to what anyone would have predicted, but I don't think it's necessarily how things have turned out on the ground. Russia seems to have supply problems. Anyway, let's wait and see.

 

[Pickman's model]

That would be true according to what anyone would have predicted, but I don't think it's necessarily how things have turned out on the ground. Russia seems to have supply problems. Anyway, let's wait and see.

supply problems are one thing which can be fairly quickly resolved. but a ceasefire of any length of time allows the opportunity for training to be given to the territorial defenders in ukraine, for weapons to enter the country. for russia there aren't any new weapons and sanctions will continue to bite

 

[A380]

Ukraine have signed application for EU membership , Farrage wont like that

FTFY

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Turkish is cargo embargo to MSQ and every other airline hate MSQ methinks did not try pegasus air

but you right EK still going to DME did not spot that ta

TK codeshares with B2, so you can have a through ticket on TK even though IST-MSQ is on Belavia.

 

[emanymton]

Ukraine claiming over 5,000 Russian personnel have been killed since the invasion began. Pretty staggering if true.

We keep getting figures for he number of Russian personnel killed but nothing for Ukrainian personnel. While the number of Russians killed has political significance without the figure for the Ukrainians it does not tell us very much about how the fighting is going.

 

[8ball]

OK thats a pretty good fit for the explanation of Russias nuclear threat that I offered, that this was all about restating what the ultimate red lines are when it comes to mutually assured destruction.

Meanwhile I've stumbled upon this hilariously shit BBC article about whether Putin would press the nuclear button. Unlike the rest of the BBC coverage yesterday which downplayed the nuclear fears and attempted to put the rhetoric into some kind of appropriate context, this one takes a very silly, fear-whipping approach. One that invites us to speculate about whether Putin would do such a thing, one that airs claims various biased experts can come out with in this situation, and a load of naive shit. One that builds on top of a load of previous dodgy analysis which invited people to believe Putin would never do x, y or z even when those things were always realistic possibilities, so that we could then be encouraged to think the unthinkable next time we ponder what Putin might actually be prepared to do.

It is a perfect example of what happens when an article describes some of the logic of Mutually Assured Destruction, but when doing so only focusses on one of the nuclear powers involved in that ugly balance of power, making a complete mockery of the whole thing. People should not quiver in fear when they read such articles, they should laugh at how partial it is. The antidote to the article is to read it while keeping at the forefront of our minds things like the one I mentioned earlier about the political shitstorm that happened when the likes of Corbyn raised the prospect that they wouldnt actually be prepared to use the bomb. MAD requires all the key nuclear powers to come out with rhetoric that clearly states they will be prepared to use nuclear weapons if the ultimate red lines are crossed. What Russia came out with yesterday about this is entirely consistent with how the MAD balance has been for many decades, it is nothing new.

Ukraine invasion: Would Putin press the nuclear button?

"Would never do" isn't a phrase that applies to Vladimir Putin, the BBC's Steve Rosenberg believes.

www.bbc.co.uk

Fucking hell, that article is utterly moronic and repellent.

 

[Cid]

Turkish is cargo embargo to MSQ and every other airline hate MSQ methinks did not try pegasus air

but you right EK still going to DME did not spot that ta

TK codeshares with B2, so you can have a through ticket on TK even though IST-MSQ is on Belavia.

Will people please stop talking in Aircraftese.

 

[kebabking]

keep getting figures for he number of Russian personnel killed but nothing for Ukrainian personnel. While the number of Russians killed has political significance without the figure for the Ukrainians it does not tell us very much about how the fighting is going.

They were putting figures out the last time I looked - 137 in the first 24 hours was the last number I recall.

Such figures are probably worthless - the idea that the Ukrainian government knows what's happening in every village in an area the size of western Europe while at war is ridiculous.

Russia, meanwhile, is notorious for concealing it's losses - Afghanistan, Georgia, Chechnya, Syria, there's a long history...

 

[skyscraper101]

We keep getting figures for he number of Russian personnel killed but nothing for Ukrainian personnel. While the number of Russians killed has political significance without the figure for the Ukrainians it does not tell us very much about how the fighting is going.

Estimates were between 100,000 to 190,000 troops amassed around the border prior to the invasion so even a conservative estimate puts that at 2.5% of their force or at worst 5%.

 

[Spymaster]

SWIFT is a messaging service, not a funds transfer service - but instant messaging is important to know where the money is.

Hmmmm ... not strictly true. Whilst it's not physically transferring money, it's very definitely a funds transfer service because the messages exchanged are a protocol which initiate a funds transfer. Saying it's not a funds transfer service is similar to saying that the Uber app isn't a cab service because it only sends a message to the driver but doesn't pick you up itself.

 

[DaveCinzano]

Hmmmm ... not strictly true. Whilst it's not physically transferring money, it's very definitely a funds transfer service because the messages exchanged are a protocol which initiate a funds transfer. Saying it's not a funds transfer service is similar to saying that the Uber app isn't a cab service because it only sends a message to the driver but doesn't pick you up itself.

I'm pretty sure Uber's lawyers are advising bluescreen

 

[Kaka Tim]

Estimates were between 100,000 to 190,000 troops amassed around the border prior to the invasion so even a conservative estimate puts that at 2.5% of their force or at worst 5%.

not all of those a re front line combat troops - also loads of logistics, mechanics, medical, catering - dunno what the support to frontline ratio is - but its pretty high.

 

[tim]

he has also been hiding his money offshore for ten years, Pandora Papers: Ukraine leader seeks to justify offshore accounts

Just resting in his account.

 

[not-bono-ever]

SWIFT is a messaging system but it can initiate a fund transfer if approved, there isn’t any obligation to act upon those standardised instructions however

 

[kabbes]

Estimates were between 100,000 to 190,000 troops amassed around the border prior to the invasion so even a conservative estimate puts that at 2.5% of their force or at worst 5%.

Lose 1% of your troops per day and you’re going to be in trouble pretty quickly.

 

[tim]

yes, it's a symptom of a totally broken political system. Like I said.

Yes not like the days when only chaps from respectable families could become head of government

 

[Elpenor]

Ukrexit campaign starts now!!

They want to ban bendy balalaikas or something like that

 

[8ball]

Lose 1% of your troops per day and you’re going to be in trouble pretty quickly.

Lose your logistics and resupply setup and the rest of what you have becomes useless very quickly too.