Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

Graun is a bit late with that news. I went there this morning so you don't have to to look for Tory roubles and found other things inc this, which is what it says on the tin, complete with ranting vid: Why do we need the world, if Russia won't be in it?' Putin's 'propagandist-in-chief' threatens the West with nuclear destruction as he boasts Moscow's subs 'can shoot more than 500 warheads'

Spoiler: Mail broken link

daily mail.co.uk/news/article-10559509/Vladimir-Putins-propagandist-chief-threatens-West-nuclear-destruction.html

the fucking mail's written by semi-literate twats

 

[Pickman's model]

I'd say the legacy of the 90s where people lost their life savings and it was very common to have drive by gangster shootings in the streets of moscow forms a huge part of why people support Putin or are scared of getting rid of him. Putin has built his image on security, stability and a strong Russia. That's all gone now. Of course he will blame it on ukraine/ NATO/ the people out at the protests but you know

even hitler only went for 2 s's

i'm surprised at the way putin's carried this out, i thought they'd have done some due diligence on the oppo first

 

[existentialist]

Liz Truss is apparently to blame for Russia's nuke stance.

Ahhh, the international significance she has been craving - and failing to get - for so long...

 

[DaveCinzano]

the fucking mail's written by semi-literate twats
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I knew there would be jihadists hiding in the shadows somewhere!

 

[nogojones]

Or a short-lived, use it to their advantage, present 'excuse' to start again.

Also gives Ukraine a chance to regroup and get arms to the front

 

[frogwoman]

Of course it was always a facade as Putin achieved this through putting some gangsters in jail and buying others off, and of course putting various cronies in charge of looting literally billions from the Russian taxpayer

 

[Pickman's model]

Of course it was always a facade as Putin achieved this through putting some gangsters in jail and buying others off, and of course putting various cronies in charge of looting literally billions from the Russian taxpayer

a house of cards built on sand.

 

[kebabking]

One thing: I bet there is a hell of a lot of drawing on white boards, arguing and rewriting documents in a hurry at the Army Command College of the Chinese People's Liberation Army in Nanjing just now...

The Chinese kebabking 's dogs won't be getting many long walks anytime soon.

I'd like to agree, but I think that there is a huge issue with makes a fundamental difference in the objective conditions re Ukraine and Tiawan.

Tiawan is an island, and one that's a long way from anywhere else. Once it's surrounded by the Chinese Navy, which is why they commission 40+ new warships every year, then it's over, and it's debatable whether we'd see much of it given Chinese ability to jam satellite uploads.

Ukraine's borders with central Europe are porous to say the least, the the whole of the Russian army would get tied down trying to close them, let alone fight an insurgency at the same time - and you can get a dozen NLAWS in the boot of a family car. I could put four of the Danish ECLAWS anti-armour weapons in a rucksack and carry them over the Romanian-Ukraine border while looking like a hillwalker...

 

[NoXion]

apart from how cunty about weight and ableist this is, it also shows you know fuck all about dance or dancers. some of the biggest people i know are graceful and nimble on their feet.

I was making a statement about Trump, not dancers in general.

 

[discokermit]

I was making a statement about Trump, not dancers in general.

you know what you said. and you know your statement above is pitiful and pathetic.

 

[Humberto]

Also gives Ukraine a chance to regroup and get arms to the front

Sure. Think (probably been said) Putin would use it as a propaganda boost first and foremost.

 

[NoXion]

you know what you said. and you know your statement above is pitiful and pathetic.

I insult Trump, and your first instinct is to have a go at me for that? Go and have a lie down.

 

[existentialist]

It's going to take me some time to get used to the idea of a city mayor giving TV interviews while wearing combat fatigues. I mean, yeah, Churchill liked to dress up in tailored (enormous) military uniforms and all that, but yer man Vitaly Klitschko does actually have the look of someone who wouldn't mind getting stuck in.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'd like to agree, but I think that there is a huge issue with makes a fundamental difference in the objective conditions re Ukraine and Tiawan.

Tiawan is an island, and one that's a long way from anywhere else. Once it's surrounded by the Chinese Navy, which is why they commission 40+ new warships every year, then it's over, and it's debatable whether we'd see much of it given Chinese ability to jam satellite uploads.

Ukraine's borders with central Europe are porous to say the least, the the whole of the Russian army would get tied down trying to close them, let alone fight an insurgency at the same time - and you can get a dozen NLAWS in the boot of a family car. I could put four of the Danish ECLAWS anti-armour weapons in a rucksack and carry them over the Romanian-Ukraine border while looking like a hillwalker...

kebabking gunrunning recently

 

[Spymaster]

Mostly what I'm pointing out is that its a bad idea to make poorly informed judgements about what the Russians expected. Do we have brilliant sources for what the Russians expected, or do we have a concerted, unified messaging campaign to consistently claim that Russias objectives are not being met in the opening days of the war? I've repeatedly pointed out that one well placed Russian said they were told to expect the main campaign to last two weeks, and I've simply used that as a starting point for when I will allow myself to make more assumptions about how badly things are going for Russia.

The 'press release' was not a press release, it was a typical propaganda piece and we've already been through the details of what it actually said, how that twitter feed mischaracterised it, that it was written in a way that perfectly well allowed for it to be published before Kyiv and the government had fallen.

I also say the things I say because I dont find much value in threads like these if everyone is just going to parrot what we hear from the mainstream, where there has been an impressively consistent but narrow narrative about war progress so far. That doesnt mean I see any point in being contrarian for the sake of it, thats shitty and useless too, I'm just putting the questioning of the propaganda that everyone is well aware exists into practice. To what extent does that propaganda stand up to scrutiny? Its doing a reasonable job of retaining an air of credibility to it so far, but I do not intend to hype up the possibilities when even those official and mainstream lines have a built in get out clause - expectations are still being managed in such pieces via lines like 'the Ukrainians have put up a good fight so far but Russia still has numbers and various forms of superiority on its side'.

Its the same with Putin - I have not claimed that there are strong indicators that this invasion will not come to be seen as a giant mistake, a major miscalculation. But it is too early to tell, especially since unfortunately Ukraine has been seen as a major prize for decades when it comes to geopolitical games. If Russia 'wins Ukraine back' then its a win for them and a loss for the west, but of course it isnt that simple because events during the ugly tug of war over Ukraine could be used to ensure Russia suffers losses in other ways that end up leaving it weaker overall. It will probably take years for some of those aspects to play out in full, and the conflict has only been going on for a matter of days.

Yes, I think you should continue what you're doing and that there's some value in your posts but at the end of the day you have the same information as the rest of us and I think some of your analysis is clearly incorrect. Not that you shouldn't continue to make it.

 

[existentialist]

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kebabking gunrunning recently

If kebabking is involved in any way, I suspect he'd be doing it on a slightly larger scale...

 

[Pickman's model]

If kebabking is involved in any way, I suspect he'd be doing it on a slightly larger scale...

yeh he'd have the kids out lugging stuff too

 

[discokermit]

I insult Trump, and your first instinct is to have a go at me for that? Go and have a lie down.

you said he isnt a good dancer because he is fat and gets out of breath easy. you arent insulting trump, who doesnt read your shit, you insult everyone carrying a bit of weight or who have lung issues etc. and read this board.
its you that needs to lie down and have a think about the language you use.

 

[A380]

View attachment 312252
kebabking gunrunning recently

Viva the Cumbrian Autonomous Peoples Republic…

 

[DaveCinzano]

Yes, I think you should continue what you're doing and that there's some value in your posts but at the end of the day you have the same information as the rest of us and I think some of your analysis is clearly incorrect. Not that you shouldn't continue to make it.

I think the benefits of elbows' posts is often the showing the workings style, which in a rolling news shitstorm is a methodical approach to parsing what information is out there

 

[Elpenor]

yeh he'd have the kids out lugging stuff too

Would make for a memorable “what I did on my holidays” essay

 

[DaveCinzano]

Please please let's now not have 12 pages of bickering about fat shaming and dancing.

That ship's sailed

 

[NoXion]

you said he isnt a good dancer because he is fat and gets out of breath easy. you arent insulting trump, who doesnt read your shit, you insult everyone carrying a bit of weight or who have lung issues etc. and read this board.
its you that needs to lie down and have a think about the language you use.

I was talking about a specific individual. If you can't see that, then that's a personal problem of yours.

 

[zahir]

 

[killer b]

I was talking about a specific individual. If you can't see that, then that's a personal problem of yours.

The terms we use to insult people do have a wider impact than just against the person you're insulting. It's one of the reasons gendered and racist insults are frowned upon mostly nowadays. You know this though, surely?

 

[Orang Utan]

He's a fat piece of shit who gets winded by a single flight of stairs.

You go on the wrong un list

 

[Spymaster]

Does that mean massive bombing of cities is what you think most likely to happen next?

I think that's highly possible.

 

[discokermit]

I was talking about a specific individual. If you can't see that, then that's a personal problem of yours.

If you use terms that reference his weight and physical fitness, things common to many people, it isnt specifically about him.
i cant believe i need to even say this.

 

[a_chap]

I hope this turns out to be true

 

[Spymaster]

Yeah, I think that's quite likely - I've seen some stuff already that suggests they are moving heavier artillery systems (MLRS) in greater numbers and closer into the main cities, and there's been some use of it - but I wouldn't be surprised if this is the start of the transition from an attempt at lighter/limited lightning war to a realisation that only a much heavier, much more within Russian doctrine, kitchen-sink war will secure the objectives (or, indeed, the revised objectives).

Yes. This.