Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

19force8 said:
Of course you don't have to think that. Just as I never said they didn't expect casualties. There's a big difference between sustaining losses to win a war and not actually achieving that end. Whatever the calculation was last week I doubt a few thousand dead was considered an impediment. On the other hand, getting bogged down without achieving anything is the prelude to a very Russian nightmare.
Click to expand...

The degree to which they've become bogged down to the extent that their major aims cannot be achieved within weeks is not currently clear. Setbacks are not the same as failure.
 
Artaxerxes said:
That’s basically what your asking her to do you fucking plum.

I want peace, she wants peace, Russia doesn’t fucking want compromise and it’s shat on all Ukraine in attempt to say it’s big and strong and Vlad is a mans man.
Click to expand...
What makes you think that what she said has anything to do with what you imagine the Russians are thinking?
 
bimble said:
I just don't understand it. If winning the war requires war-crimes type weapons being fired at Ukrainian cities how does it possibly work out for Russia in the end?
I mean if you were him would you be thinking that everyone will just get over the unpleasantness in a little while the sanctions be lifted and he'll again be invited to the international dinner parties or what. Maybe thats exactly what will happen idk.
Click to expand...
you just have to measure yourself against the united states' bombing of hanoi, haiphong and tokyo or the british bombing of dresden and hope that the scales of justice are still weighted the same

if i was him he/i wouldn't be in this position
 
elbows said:
The degree to which they've become bogged down to the extent that their major aims cannot be achieved within weeks is not currently clear. Setbacks are not the same as failure.
Click to expand...
To say conclusively that they’ve either failed or succeeded (either next week or next year) it would be necessary to know exactly what their objective was in the first place.
 
bimble said:
To say conclusively that they’ve either failed or succeeded (either next week or next year) it would be necessary to know exactly what their objective was in the first place.
Click to expand...

I think even having probing attempts at the capital while attacking a range of cities gives us some clues about a certain degree of commitment and hence narrows things down.
 
8ball said:
I think even having probing attempts at the capital while attacking a range of cities gives us some clues about a certain degree of commitment and hence narrows things down.
Click to expand...
Yeah but they said occupation was not their objective, so that would count as failing? or maybe that was a lie. We won’t ever know really will we.
 
bimble said:
Yeah but they said occupation was not their objective, so that would count as failing? or maybe that was a lie. We won’t ever know really will we.
Click to expand...

I'm sure there was an easier way to pop round for a cup of tea and a chat.
But yeah, there was that starting premise of "peacekeeping" in those two Russian-sympathetic areas, and then a lot of bluster and whining but no compellingly clear reason for the big offensive beyond "look what you made me do".

Which, as you suggest, is likely part of the game plan, but real ultimate plans are murky. I'm pretty sure that the goal isn't any of the things they have stated so far. Some people are suggesting maybe it's just to cause chaos and get the relevant parties to the table, knowing they mean business.

If it had turned out really unexpectedly easy to just trundle in Taliban style, I expect they would be occupying right now, though. Maybe that first rush was hubris, or maybe just "you don't know til you try". The Russian Army doesn't seem to hold the lives of its soldiers in massively high regard.
 
bimble said:
ay conclusively that they’ve either failed or succeeded (either next week or next year) it would be necessary to know exactly what their objective was in the first place.
Click to expand...

While that's true to some extent, unless old Vlads' objective was to not surround Kyiv with Armoured units, to lose two of his parachute/airborne units in unsupported attacks on protected Ukrainian airfields, and get his logistics columns ravaged - as well as all the diplomatic and economic stuff - then it's probably fair to say it's not going to plan.

I have no doubt they can recover - he has enough combat power to drive to Kyiv, to surround it, and to punch through its defences in armoured 'thunder runs', and to effectively occupy large swathes of the country - but whatever he's doing now doesn't look like how victory is described in any Russian doctrine I've ever read.

I think he's tried something, and it hasn't worked. I think he's probably going try something else, something that's much more in keeping with how his forces train.
 
kebabking said:
While that's true to some extent, unless old Vlads' objective was to not surround Kyiv with Armoured units, to lose two of his parachute/airborne units in unsupported attacks on protected Ukrainian airfields, and get his logistics columns ravaged - as well as all the diplomatic and economic stuff - then it's probably fair to say it's not going to plan.

I have no doubt they can recover - he has enough combat power to drive to Kyiv, to surround it, and to punch through its defences in armoured 'thunder runs', and to effectively occupy large swathes of the country - but whatever he's doing now doesn't look like how victory is described in any Russian doctrine I've ever read.

I think he's tried something, and it hasn't worked. I think he's probably going try something else, something that's much more in keeping with how his forces train.
Click to expand...
i'm very surprised they went the way they did and didn't do something more in line with the heavy reconnaissance you'd associate with the russians (or wargame things or use the 2003 iraq war - the invasion part which saw the americans swiftly capture baghdad - as something of a model)
 
rekil said:
Come on, they are fucking trash.
www.theguardian.com

Stop the War faces a coalition of critics | Letters from Peter Tatchell and others

Letters: Sadly, since then, on the issue of Syria, StWC has lost its moral compass and authority
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
Their last outing consisted of crying about Soleimani ffs.
Click to expand...
You are right of course - nonetheless I feel that this wave of STWC bashing is not about that this time around - my impression it is being framed in crude pro-Putin and anti-Nato terms, and has got people bandwagon jumping on it for that reason
 
RD2003 said:
From the Guardian. Hopefully a sign that some sensible voices are coming through from the Ukrainian side.


The mayor of the Ukrainian city of Vasilkiv says residents are “dreaming of peace”, the Guardian’s Shaun Walker reports.

I’ve been speaking to Natalia Balasynovych, the mayor of Vasilkiv, which came under heavy fire as Russian troops tried to disable the air defence system here and capture the airport over recent days.

Asked what she would like to see at the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine currently taking place, Balasynovych said she believed most people in her town would accept a compromise to stop the war.
Click to expand...

I think we've got your number by now
 
Pickman's model said:
i'm very surprised they went the way they did and didn't do something more in line with the heavy reconnaissance you'd associate with the russians (or wargame things or use the 2003 iraq war - the invasion part which saw the americans swiftly capture baghdad - as something of a model)
Click to expand...

I'm surprised they didn't stop at those two sympathetic regions and pose for photo opps and play humanitarian nice guy for a bit in a "we need to sort out a few details but would really like to get home asap" kind of way. While rolling in all the massive hardware, obviously.
 
kebabking said:
While that's true to some extent, unless old Vlads' objective was to not surround Kyiv with Armoured units, to lose two of his parachute/airborne units in unsupported attacks on protected Ukrainian airfields, and get his logistics columns ravaged - as well as all the diplomatic and economic stuff - then it's probably fair to say it's not going to plan.

I have no doubt they can recover - he has enough combat power to drive to Kyiv, to surround it, and to punch through its defences in armoured 'thunder runs', and to effectively occupy large swathes of the country - but whatever he's doing now doesn't look like how victory is described in any Russian doctrine I've ever read.

I think he's tried something, and it hasn't worked. I think he's probably going try something else, something that's much more in keeping with how his forces train.
Click to expand...
Is it confirmed the paras didn't take the airfields? Because I've seen stuff claiming they regrouped, waited for assistance and came back adnd took it after tha.
 
8ball said:
I'm surprised they didn't stop at those two sympathetic regions and pose for photo opps and play humanitarian nice guy for a bit in a "we need to sort out a few details but would really like to get home asap" kind of way. While rolling in all the massive hardware, obviously.
Click to expand...
that would have been the sensible thing to do. i wonder when all this is over how much of the russian decision-making system will turn out to have been along the lines of 'it seemed like a good idea at the time'
 
8ball said:
I'm sure there was an easier way to pop round for a cup of tea and a chat.
But yeah, there was that starting premise of "peacekeeping" in those two Russian-sympathetic areas, and then a lot of bluster and whining but no compellingly clear reason for the big offensive beyond "look what you made me do".

Which, as you suggest, is likely part of the game plan, but real ultimate plans are murky. I'm pretty sure that the goal isn't any of the things they have stated so far. Some people are suggesting maybe it's just to cause chaos and get the relevant parties to the table, knowing they mean business.

If it had turned out really unexpectedly easy to just trundle in Taliban style, I expect they would be occupying right now, though. Maybe that first rush was hubris, or maybe just "you don't know til you try". The Russian Army doesn't seem to hold the lives of its soldiers in massively high regard.
Click to expand...


Yes the "peace keeping" thing should be used by all terrified young Russian soldiers to get out now
I mean...can you shoot a peace keeping battalion for deserting?.
It would be ironic...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

platinumsage
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, Feb 2022 - tangentially related crap
29 30 31 32 33
Replies
978
Views
52K
The39thStep
The39thStep
tim
The 2023 Russian Coup.
51 52 53 54 55
Replies
2K
Views
69K
_Russ_
_Russ_
Dogsauce
The Russian defenestration thread
2
Replies
51
Views
5K
maomao
maomao
platinumsage
Ukraine invasion memes and viral content
70 71 72 73 74
Replies
2K
Views
122K
The39thStep
The39thStep
Pickman's model
Ukraine after the war
2 3
Replies
62
Views
6K
phildwyer
phildwyer
Back
Top Bottom