Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Yeah, I don't see what a ceasefire gives Russia - they have all they need, or could realistically mobilise, on Ukraine's doorstep right now - the Far East Military Discrict has been emptied to a degree not seen since 1941, there's very little left that could be put on a train from Siberia.

Capitulation, certainly, but a ceasefire in place, burning diesel and eating rations while every day the Ukrainians get more tooled up - I'm not sure what that gives Russia.
Given the singlemindedness of the Russian narrative about how they're protecting the "autonomous regions" from "genocide", I suspect that this is just for show, and a way to say "see, we tried, and those stinking Ukrainians won't see our very reasonable point".

Cue a big hammerblow effort when the talks (inevitably) fail.
 
Thats certainly a big reason why the press are not speaking of these talks as though there is a strong chance of them achieving something meaningful. The Ukrainian government has indicated that they dont think they will achieve much, but that they are going along with them so as not to be seen as being a barrier to peace breaking out.

That said, I dont presume to know what deals can sometimes end up being struck at such talks, and if nothing is achieved the first few times then they may still set the scene for progress later on. Any channel of communication is a start, and sometimes surprising stuff emerges.
Yeah. A non-humiliating way for Putin to back down is probably the best hope now but it's hard to see where that lies or who could provide it to him.
 
Federal solution for the two regions in the East in return for not getting their cities burnt down and 5% of their young men and women killed? I like to think I wouldn't but I'd probably take that.

That does seem to be one of the likely outcomes from what people have said - some negotiated settlement for Ukraine not to do certain things and to let Russia have DPR and LPR officially.
 
All at the behest of the west, whose economic and political strategists encouraged the wholesale theft of the Russian/ex-Soviet economy. Which ultimately gave rise to Putin.
Too many on here talk as though Putin came from nowhere, and is just another baddie, to be eliminated as we advance to whatever (unattainable) 'good society' is in their silly little heads.
That just isn't the case. People really do know the history.
 
YEAH FUCK THE STOP THE WAR COALITION - SOPS THE LOT OF THEM

(am i doing this right?)
Come on, they are fucking trash.


StWC has repeatedly refused to have anti-Assad Syrian democrats and leftwingers on its platforms at events where Syria is being discussed; whereas it has offered a platform to pro-Assad speakers such as Issa Chaer and Mother Agnes. Moreover, StWC intervened to stop a Syrian Solidarity UK speaker from addressing the Migrant Lives Matter rally in London in April. It has one-sidedly failed to support demonstrations against the escalating Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah military interventions in Syria.

Their last outing consisted of crying about Soleimani ffs.
 
You have to think some expectation of a swift, decisive victory followed by withdrawal before the world had chance to respond was behind the decision to invade.

No, I dont have to think that. Other possibilities exist, there are other ways to make sense of what was planned and what was happened so far. Wars and invasions are indulged in even when the aggressor knows that it will sustain some losses. Knowing what they are actually prepared to lose is important to know, and assumptions that they expected no losses are not something I like to make. Plus they judge the balance of losses to the potential gains, and there isnt very much discussion about exactly what those perceived gains are in this case, which rather makes a mockery of attempts to understand Russias thinking on this. Its part of a large, shitty geopolitical game, Ukraine is quite a prize in that grand chessboard shit. The west values that prize too, theyve been prepared to put a lot of effort into getting Ukraine into our sphere of influence, and that gives us some clues about why Russia might be prepared to put a lot of effort (and risk losses) into trying to achieve the opposite.
 
Federal solution for the two regions in the East in return for not getting their cities burnt down and 5% of their young men and women killed? I like to think I wouldn't but I'd probably take that.
I think at this stage they'd also be keen for some meaningful assurance that Putin isn't going to come back for another bite of the cherry this time next year.

And one of the few ways I can think of more-or-less guaranteeing that would be fast tracked NATO membership.
 
Kremlin blames Liz Truss specifically for them upping nuclear alert level... Oops.

(graun reporting interfax)

Dmitry Peskov said:
Statements were made by various representatives at various levels on possible altercations or even collisions and clashes between Nato and Russia. We believe that such statements are absolutely unacceptable.

I would not call the authors of these statements by name, although it was the British foreign minister.
 
iven the singlemindedness of the Russian narrative about how they're protecting the "autonomous regions" from "genocide", I suspect that this is just for show, and a way to say "see, we tried, and those stinking Ukrainians won't see our very reasonable point".

Cue a big hammerblow effort when the talks (inevitably) fail.
Yeah, I think that's quite likely - I've seen some stuff already that suggests they are moving heavier artillery systems (MLRS) in greater numbers and closer into the main cities, and there's been some use of it - but I wouldn't be surprised if this is the start of the transition from an attempt at lighter/limited lightning war to a realisation that only a much heavier, much more within Russian doctrine, kitchen-sink war will secure the objectives (or, indeed, the revised objectives).
 
Looking at the way the Russian thing seems to have somehow gone limp, it reminds me of a thing that happened.

I was working at the Dubai Air Show, back in (I think) 1997, and they were rehearsing the flight routines. The Russian Su-35 was going through its paces, quite impressively, standing on its tail and all that malarkey, then the plane kind of "fell" out of its routine, causing a certain amount of consternation amongst the height and flight bods, before terminating the flight and coming back in to land.

Turns out that there was nothing wrong with the plane, but the pilot's flight suit was so knackered that the flight plan, and assorted other paperwork, had fallen out of his leg pocket, and was flying around the cockpit, prompting the pilot to abandon the demo. Along with a few other little happenings, it created an impression that, while the sparkly hardware might be very impressive, the ancillary stuff was often ancient, knackered, or crap to start with.

So I do wonder how much of what we are seeing in regard to supposedly overwhelming forces inexplicably failing to deliver at the point they need to might just be down to similar, second-line failures, shortages, or stuff just not being in the right place.
 
Yeah. A non-humiliating way for Putin to back down is probably the best hope now but it's hard to see where that lies or who could provide it to him.
I think Putin is so far into auto-humiliation that it'd be bloody difficult to find a route whereby he COULD back off and save face.
 
One thing: I bet there is a hell of a lot of drawing on white boards, arguing and rewriting documents in a hurry at the Army Command College of the Chinese People's Liberation Army in Nanjing just now...

The Chinese kebabking 's dogs won't be getting many long walks anytime soon.
 
That does seem to be one of the likely outcomes from what people have said - some negotiated settlement for Ukraine not to do certain things and to let Russia have DPR and LPR officially.
I do wonder whether that just creates another boundary for conflict at the edges of those places where they border onto Ukraine. And the almost-inevitable likelihood that, as with Belarus, Russia would simply use them to be able to amass offensive capability right on those borders.
 
... a much heavier, much more within Russian doctrine, kitchen-sink war will secure the objectives (or, indeed, the revised objectives).

If that does end up being the direction I expect things to get very bad on a wider European/global level don't you think? No idea about the military expectations of the Russian state with this invasion, but I suspect they didn't expect so much worldwide social and political condemnation and action taken so decisively, and that will just get more so if their military action gets heavier I'd have thought.
 
Yeah, I think that's quite likely - I've seen some stuff already that suggests they are moving heavier artillery systems (MLRS) in greater numbers and closer into the main cities, and there's been some use of it - but I wouldn't be surprised if this is the start of the transition from an attempt at lighter/limited lightning war to a realisation that only a much heavier, much more within Russian doctrine, kitchen-sink war will secure the objectives (or, indeed, the revised objectives).
Does that mean massive bombing of cities is what you think most likely to happen next?
 
If that does end up being the direction I expect things to get very bad on a wider European/global level don't you think? No idea about the military expectations of the Russian state with this invasion, but I suspect they didn't expect so much worldwide social and political condemnation and action taken so decisively, and that will just get more so if their military action gets heavier I'd have thought.
Yeah. How do you "contain" a military the size of Russia's without actually flattening them to the point that the only card left in Putin's hand is the nuclear one?
 
Does that mean massive bombing of cities is what you think most likely to happen next?
Not bombs perhaps, but missiles, rockets...those scary hyperbaric weapons, definitely. Putin might settle for just completely flattening Kyiv, and killing everyone in it, and he could probably do that without resorting to nuclear weapons :( Perhaps he'd start with doing that to a smaller city first of all, pour encourager les autres.
 
Yeah, I don't see what a ceasefire gives Russia - they have all they need, or could realistically mobilise, on Ukraine's doorstep right now - the Far East Military Discrict has been emptied to a degree not seen since 1941, there's very little left that could be put on a train from Siberia.

Capitulation, certainly, but a ceasefire in place, burning diesel and eating rations while every day the Ukrainians get more tooled up - I'm not sure what that gives Russia.
problems. it gives them problems.
 
Kremlin blames Liz Truss specifically for them upping nuclear alert level... Oops.

(graun reporting interfax)
Graun is a bit late with that news. I went there this morning so you don't have to to look for Tory roubles and found other things inc this, which is what it says on the tin, complete with ranting vid: Why do we need the world, if Russia won't be in it?' Putin's 'propagandist-in-chief' threatens the West with nuclear destruction as he boasts Moscow's subs 'can shoot more than 500 warheads'

daily mail.co.uk/news/article-10559509/Vladimir-Putins-propagandist-chief-threatens-West-nuclear-destruction.html
 
That does seem to be one of the likely outcomes from what people have said - some negotiated settlement for Ukraine not to do certain things and to let Russia have DPR and LPR officially.
yeh but then that resolves the border dispute and ukraine >>> nato

which isn't really what russia's done all this for, i suspect
 
I'd say the legacy of the 90s where people lost their life savings and it was very common to have drive by gangster shootings in the streets of moscow forms a huge part of why people support Putin or are scared of getting rid of him. Putin has built his image on security, stability and a strong Russia. That's all gone now. Of course he will blame it on ukraine/ NATO/ the people out at the protests but you know
 
Back
Top Bottom