Tory UK EU Exit Referendum
- Thread starter paolo
- Start date
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Er 0 chance. How could that happen?
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Does appear so. I thought it an odd thing for him to do at first, but I can see the logic in it now. Cameron standing down at the next election creates a rather unique situation - a government at an election with a sitting PM who isn't fighting the election to continue as PM. I can't see how that could possibly work except with a succession already worked out - ie you campaign with your new PM-elect named. And that would mean NOT BORIS. Whoever it is - Osborne presumably - it's just not going to be Johnson. So that means Johnson not becoming PM until 2025 at the very earliest.
So await a chance that isn't going to come for at least nearly a decade, or have a punt at getting it this year. Even if he calculated that it was odds-against, he may have thought it worth it. He may also have an ego big enough to think that his endorsement would sway the vote.
Let's hope he becomes bitter over the coming years.
It isn't going to be Osborne either; he is probably as widely disliked as Cameron is and has far less of his charm. It will be Johnson (especially if Leave wins), or more likely the recently invisible Theresa May.
Made a pig's ear of it.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
If Cameron survives to 2020, I don't see how it can possibly be Johnson. He's not even in government, and isn't likely to be any time soon, assuming a remain vote.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
This isn't really about old rules, more about new ones - a sitting PM standing down at an election. Hasn't happened since 1970 - don't know if it has ever happened - but there are certain ways it can't happen - for instance, a govt cannot go into an election without stating who they will have as the next PM if they are re-elected.
A lot can happen in four years. Johnson could be drafted into a top cabinet spot in time for him to replace Cameron. But a lot would have to happen for that to be possible.
stethoscope
Well-Known Member
I'm not saying that 'it' (central institutions of the EU) are monolithic, but the reality is that because they are wholly invested in the pursuing of neoliberalism and capital and opening up of markets, then being a member state of the EU means that (and regardless of the diversity/politics of those member states), the outcome for member states is essentially going to be controls on those members in some of the ways mentioned above. And its precisely what we're seeing despite the constant hard talk of member state leaders 'going to win concessions' (yeah, that usually goes well) or the 'but we can change the EU from within' optimism from 'progressive' European groups.
stethoscope
Well-Known Member
I can't muster any more on this debate/thread for now, I've had enough disagreements with friends and colleagues this last week, I'm sick of it all. Especially one friend who onetime radical and had a really critical class/capital analysis (and whom has taught me a lot the last few years) has seemingly retreated into a 'but never mind the neoliberalism of the EU project and the shit stuff its enacting against worker rights and member states COZ exit means bad TORIES!'. Is this really it?! Is this really all there is?!
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Yes it is starting to piss me off too
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
Being in Scotland I've got to watch the STV player, which managed about 1 minute in every 3 for the first half hour. Keeps buffering and randomly inserting station idents.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
No doubt we'll have a million thinkpieces tomorrow from liberal journos saying that she is poised to replace Corbyn or lamenting the fact that she isn't.
stethoscope
Well-Known Member
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belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
'They're making it up' seems to be the counter biteYes it is starting to piss me off too
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Gisella Stuart is reasonably coherent on the other side. Despite usually talking shite
free spirit
more tea vicar?
kill me now.
alternatively 10 minutes to peaky blinders, I couldn't take another hour of this shit.
alternatively 10 minutes to peaky blinders, I couldn't take another hour of this shit.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Christ, there isn't, is there?
weltweit
Well-Known Member
This is the first time I have heard Amber Rudd stringing a coherent sentence together ..
I don't know much about Gisela Stuart but as a German living here it seems odd to be arguing to bring up the drawbridge to prevent others any coming after her.
I think leave going on about immigration are focussing on fears and trying to scare the population about "incomers".. surely this is almost racist?
I don't know much about Gisela Stuart but as a German living here it seems odd to be arguing to bring up the drawbridge to prevent others any coming after her.
I think leave going on about immigration are focussing on fears and trying to scare the population about "incomers".. surely this is almost racist?
weltweit
Well-Known Member
It goes on till 10pm ....
weltweit
Well-Known Member
But of course she has shared a platform with the tories, something Corbyn has refused to do ..
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
In a debate amongst many others where she is making a very distinct argument.
Amber Rudd and the Tory woman for leave are both rubbish, aren't they?
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
Don't worry, Jeremy is making his devastating intervention 3 days before the vote (on Sky).
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