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Tory UK EU Exit Referendum

weltweit said:
I think leaving the single market would be a mistake, a big mistake, but a lot of people in the UK, as evidenced by questions at debates, think unfettered EU migration is a very bad thing.
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Which of the regular contributors to this thread is that aimed at. Coz I know I've told you repeatedly a successful leave vote will still have us in the Single Market.
 
TheHoodedClaw said:
Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, seems to think that the UK will have no single-market access outside the EU

No single market access for UK after Brexit, Wolfgang Schäuble says

Probably just a shot across the bows I guess.
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They'd do it to us just to set an example for other countries. In the same way that they stamped on the faces of Greek workers and pensioners for voting in a left government, they will stamp on us for leaving the EU. Does anyone want to be in a club that treats its members that way though?
 
weltweit said:
It was aimed at the undecided who might read this thread.
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sheep-orwell.jpg
 
ItWillNeverWork said:
They'd do it to us just to set an example for other countries. In the same way that they stamped on the faces of Greek workers and pensioners for voting in a left government, they will stamp on us for leaving the EU. Does anyone want to be in a club that treats its members that way though?
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That would mean punishing Norway and Switzerland for...? We actually still have EEA membership as it is. Membership card is probably in THAT drawer in the kitchen at Downing St. EEA route means the two years is mainly sorting out ancillaries like Erasmus, Arrest warrants and the like, and agriculture. EEA doesn't include CAP (Pickled herring and fondue don't figure heavily) transitioning agriculture is going to eat heavily into any saving initially. Though we are having better weather than the continent, and Canada and Russia currently under sanction..
 
ItWillNeverWork said:
They'd do it to us just to set an example for other countries. In the same way that they stamped on the faces of Greek workers and pensioners for voting in a left government, they will stamp on us for leaving the EU. Does anyone want to be in a club that treats its members that way though?
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yeah, the ruling classes do cos its not them thats the battered spouse in the situation is it.

except for the brexiteer ruling classes who don't want to be in the EU but not out of anything like human decency or logic, they just want more money and power and see this all as positioning
 
weltweit said:
But EU immigration, and the fear of it, seems to have become a central plank of this referendum so a vote leave, if we also leave the single market, is likely to usher in a change as to how it is permitted in future.
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I suspect there are some leave voters who will expect that we'll pull up the drawbridge immediately, and be sending all the Polish home (including offspring born here), and the pub that shut down and became an Eastern European supermarket will go back to being a pub again. I don't think that what will emerge from a leave vote will meet their expectations. Hence the arguments about immigration will continue for some years yet, and there will be right-wing parties capitalising on this, likely to be UKIP cannibalising the traditional Labour vote.
 
magneze said:
If exit was really as tragic as Cameron makes out, he looks even more a numpty for asking in the first place. Or he's lying. Or both.
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4 million ukip voters. double that for those who would vote kipper but that nice mr cameron put the question to a vote and thier trad tory so loyalty is still a factor. thats 8 mill. Not a voting bloc to be sniffed at. He had to offer this reff or risk the open warfare we are seeing now dog him sooner than it has. He bought time, stopped a bleed out to the kippers but now the times come and its all going down the shitter. Vote out to let camerons reign end on a fart noise
 
weltweit said:
I think leaving the single market would be a mistake, a big mistake, but a lot of people in the UK, as evidenced by questions at debates, think unfettered EU migration is a very bad thing.
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Even hardcore capitalists have a hard time selling being locked into a "single market" with one the lowest economic growth rates in the world.
the oh so European "single" market that, among others, Chile, south Africa and South Korea enjoy unfettered access to, tariff free...
This is what a free trade agreement look like:
Now, in that document, find and replace Chile with The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Norther Ireland.
or
ask yourself if the UK fits the relevant criteria that brought about Chile's free trade agreement:
CONSIDERING the traditional links between the Parties and with particular reference to:
  • the common cultural heritage and the close historical, political and economic ties which unite them;
  • their full commitment to the respect for democratic principles and fundamental human rights as set out in the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights;
  • their attachment to the principles of the rule of law and of good governance;
  • the need to promote economic and social progress for their peoples,
  • taking into account the principle of sustainable development and environmental protection requirements;
  • the desirability of enlarging the framework of relations between the European Union and the Latin American regional integration with a view to contributing to a strategic association between the two regions as foreseen in the Declaration adopted at the Summit of Heads of State and Government of Latin America and the Caribbean and the European Union in Rio de Janeiro on 28 June 1999;
  • the importance of strengthening the regular political dialogue on bilateral and international issues of mutual interest, as already established in the Joint Declaration which is part of the Framework Cooperation Agreement between the Parties of 21 June 1996, hereinafter referred to as the ‘Framework Cooperation Agreement’;
  • the importance that the Parties attach to:
    • coordinating their positions and undertaking joint initiatives in the appropriate international fora;
    • the principles and values set out in the Final Declaration of the World Summit for Social Development held in Copenhagen in March 1995;
    • the principles and rules which govern international trade, in particular those contained in the Agreement establishing the World Trade Organisation (the ‘WTO’) and to the need to apply them in a transparent and non-discriminatory manner;
    • the fight against all forms of terrorism and the commitment to establish effective international instruments to ensure its eradication;
  • the desirability of a cultural dialogue in order to achieve a better mutual understanding between the Parties, and to foster the existing traditional, cultural and natural links between the citizens of both Parties;
  • the importance of the Cooperation Agreement between the European Community and Chile of 20 December 1990 and of the Framework Cooperation Agreement in sustaining and fostering the implementation of these processes and principles
THE PARTIES HAVE DECIDED TO CONCLUDE THIS AGREEMENT:
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or
ask yourself why the Eu would see fit to deny a free trade agreement with the UK (other than out of petulance and vindictiveness):
 
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ItWillNeverWork said:
They'd do it to us just to set an example for other countries. In the same way that they stamped on the faces of Greek workers and pensioners for voting in a left government, they will stamp on us for leaving the EU. Does anyone want to be in a club that treats its members that way though?
Click to expand...
yep, petulant & vindictive.
The standard was set against the Greeks
 
pocketscience said:
Even hardcore capitalists have a hard time selling being locked into a "single market" with one the lowest economic growth rates in the world.
the oh so European "single" market that, among others, Chile, south Africa and South Korea enjoy unfettered access to, tariff free...
This is what a free trade agreement look like:
Now, in that document, find and replace Chile with The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Norther Ireland.
or
ask yourself if the UK fits the relevant criteria that brought about Chile's free trade agreement:

or
ask yourself why the Eu would see fit to deny a free trade agreement with the UK (other than out of petulance and vindictiveness):
Click to expand...
They wouldn't deny just can't be done in a 2 year time frame, takes about ten years.
 
gosub said:
They wouldn't deny just can't be done in a 2 year time frame, takes about ten years.
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Schauble (and weltweit) seem to be conveying the idea that the process needs to be: 1. get slung out,2. join the back of the queue for free trade negotiations. 3 start reneging free trade agreement in the distant future.
I call bullshit. I see it more like a carve out of sorts, whereby the criteria of the separation from the union need to be negotiated point by point which ever way you handle it.
The underlying principle that the UK fits the criteria for a free trade agreement would be hard to deny and could be agreed immediately, therefore making the said negotiation more of a transition from status quo (free trade) to desired solution (free trade) agreement whilst negotiating all the stuff that needs carving out. Therefore the free trade / access to the single market point doesn't need to be touched.
 
pocketscience said:
Schauble (and weltweit) seem to be conveying the idea that the process needs to be: 1. get slung out,2. join the back of the queue for free trade negotiations. 3 start reneging free trade agreement in the distant future.
I call bullshit. I see it more like a carve out of sorts, whereby the criteria of the separation from the union need to be negotiated point by point which ever way you handle it.
The underlying principle that the UK fits the criteria for a free trade agreement would be hard to deny and could be agreed immediately, therefore making the said negotiation more of a transition from status quo (free trade) to desired solution (free trade) agreement whilst negotiating all the stuff that needs carving out. Therefore the free trade / access to the single market point doesn't need to be touched.
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The transition isn't easy. Which is why most credible exit plans start with move to EEA/EFTA They usually try and expand on what happens after - what happens after is you bin your plan and redraft. UK retreating to EEA has knock on to other relationships within EUrope that are beyond UK control needs a bit of suck it and see.
Australian type MRA deal could be done in shorter order I suppose but means drawing line under all existing arrangements and then moving forward from there. Still have the problem with 69% UK Parliament and potentially vexatious EUropean "friends"
 
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DotCommunist said:
4 million ukip voters. double that for those who would vote kipper but that nice mr cameron put the question to a vote and thier trad tory so loyalty is still a factor. thats 8 mill. Not a voting bloc to be sniffed at. He had to offer this reff or risk the open warfare we are seeing now dog him sooner than it has. He bought time, stopped a bleed out to the kippers but now the times come and its all going down the shitter. Vote out to let camerons reign end on a fart noise
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... and potentially early too.
 
gosub said:
The transition isn't easy. Which is why most credible exit plans start with move to EEA/EFTA They usually try and expand on what happens after - what happens after is you bin your plan and redraft. UK retreating to EEA has knock on to other relationships within EUrope that are beyond UK control needs a bit of suck it and see.
Australian type MRA deal could be done in shorter order I suppose but means drawing line under all existing arrangements and then moving forward from there. Still have the problem with 69% UK Parliament and potentially vexatious EUropean "friends"
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Nobody says it'll be easy but the Eu is currently processing a dozen or so other country's agreements. there are enough models are out there, and as I said, we fulfill all the pre-requisites without a doubt .

Anyway, what comes after a remain vote? A referendum for the UK to adopt the Euro?
Seems a bit pointless remaining in the Eu without a seat at the fiscal union discussion table. Plenty of negotiation on the differences will be needed there, with little to no added value for both parties. May as well use all that effort to get a better deal based on independence, no?
 
pocketscience said:
Nobody says it'll be easy but the Eu is currently processing a dozen or so other country's agreements. there are enough models are out there, and as I said, we fulfill all the pre-requisites without a doubt .

Anyway, what comes after a remain vote? A referendum for the UK to adopt the Euro?
Seems a bit pointless remaining in the Eu without a seat at the fiscal union discussion table. Plenty of negotiation on the differences will be needed there, with little to no added value for both parties. May as well use all that effort to get a better deal based on independence, no?
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Well I'd guess from a UK point of view fully extending the single market to services,so that continentals and maybe US(TTIP) can vulture on our healthcare have more opportunity to avail themselves of our marvellous financial services. And the EUrozone moves towards a United States of EUrope while we get offered associate membership on their terms - like EUrope's Puerto Rico only with shit weather (it's actually nice today).

or

Sir John Major's mob lose patience with Portugal, pulls its credit rating (Oct) and the whole gets tested to destruction while we sit in the 2nd class lounge listening to the band.
 
gosub said:
Sir John Major's mob lose patience with Portugal, pulls its credit rating (Oct) and the whole gets tested to destruction while we sit in the 2nd class lounge listening to the band.
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the band's in the business class lounge, in the 2nd class you get piped abba instrumentals
 
gosub said:
Well I'd guess from a UK point of view fully extending the single market to services,so that continentals and maybe US(TTIP) can vulture on our healthcare have more opportunity to avail themselves of our marvellous financial services. And the EUrozone moves towards a United States of EUrope while we get offered associate membership on their terms - like EUrope's Puerto Rico only with shit weather (it's actually nice today).

or

Sir John Major's mob lose patience with Portugal, pulls its credit rating (Oct) and the whole gets tested to destruction while we sit in the 2nd class lounge listening to the band.
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The way things are heading, the Eu (excluding Germany) will be the US's new Puerto Rico. We'd be doing well if we can negotiate a Mexico (independent access to both markets) while we can.
 
pocketscience said:
Nobody says it'll be easy but the Eu is currently processing a dozen or so other country's agreements. there are enough models are out there, and as I said, we fulfill all the pre-requisites without a doubt ........
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Actually there are prtactically only two ways especially with the 2 year Article 50 time frame the Aussie MRA (Mutual Recognition Agreement) route -yep as long as you don't tinker we'll call you compliant OR the fall back to EEA (yes we are members)and al la carte it for the two years, the other WTO type routes mean going through our entire statue and tracing line by line what bit makes what an Acceptable Means of Compliance to whom so you know what you have to keep to do a deal with so and so and what is swarf- going to need a bigger civil service.

And you still have to get through a Parliament where 69% of MP's are campaigning for remain and the government is out numbered in the Lords.
 
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