Tory UK EU Exit Referendum

[littlebabyjesus]

As far as I can see, the problems that Switzerland encountered were related to their immigration policies. Is it unreasonable to suggest that the UK could find itself in a similar position? The point of the "case study" seems to be to demonstrate that while non-EU countries can participate in these schemes, it's conditional. In other words if they don't comply with EU conditions they're out. I

Also: I was curious to see who "Scientists for Britain" are.

It seems to be 4 people, at least, who will put their names to it. Not much indication of how widely they are supported.

I note that one of those four is not a scientist but graduated in Political history, works in venture capital and was adviser to Michael Gove. Another is a conservative parliamentary candidate.

http://scientistsforbritain.uk/wordpress/?page_id=54

Yep, four of them, only two are scientists - one is a GP. Not a go-to source.

 

[gosub]

Yep, four of them, only two are scientists - one is a GP. Not a go-to source.

Limited amount of time this week, got a bastard TMA on a discontiguous network to do. And I mean bastard.

 

[binka]

Not even with an acrostic? First letter of each paragraph spells "This is fake you daft kipper"?

No

I think he meant the shit special needs joke

 

[youngian]

Yep, four of them, only two are scientists - one is a GP. Not a go-to source.

Jamie Martin is our Science Policy Adviser: Jamie is a former Special Adviser to Michael Gove when he was the Secretary of State for Education and whilst in opposition. He graduated from the University of Cambridge in 2007 with an Mphil (1st Class) in Political History.

So not even a Science Policy Adviser to Gove. He just made the name up.

 

[teuchter]

Limited amount of time this week, got a bastard TMA on a discontiguous network to do. And I mean bastard.

That's exactly what these groups rely on. People who quote sources when they haven't got the time to check them out first.

 

[butchersapron]

I think he meant the shit special needs joke

I did.

 

[2hats]

I note that one of those four is not a scientist but graduated in Political history, works in venture capital and was adviser to Michael Gove. Another is a conservative parliamentary candidate.

About Us – Scientists for Britain

And yet another was a UKIP parliamentary candidate in 2015.

 

[teqniq]

Cameron has urged people to vote in the EU referendum 'or you'll find we're out'

 

[brogdale]

Obviously, only 1 poll, but interesting timing and all that...

 

[brogdale]

and some interesting poll finding to complement those numbers above...

 

[brogdale]

These must be very worrying numbers for No. 10....

 

[killer b]

I was reading this interview with Wolfgang Streeck in Jacobin, he tackles the point people have made here that a victory for brexit will be a victory for the far right:

What about those on the Left who argue that the call to withdraw from Europe and return to national economic institutions only strengthens the hand of the nationalist right? That it’s better to renovate European institutions rather than risk feeding the likes of the National Front or Golden Dawn?

Those who think so get the causality wrong. What boosts the Right in Europe is the disempowerment of broad segments of national citizenries by supranational institutions whose operation nobody understands — the disempowerment, that is to say, of nationally based democracy in favor of a remote European technocracy specializing in the opening of markets for multinational corporations, especially the financial industry.

Otherwise I am all in favor of wholesale “renovation” — but it must be preceded by a public debate on what is called, in Brussels jargon, the finalité of European integration. Is united Europe to be a federal superstate? What will become of the nations that are to constitute it? How much and what kind of “subsidiarity” will there be?

Where will the “ever closer union of the European peoples” end up? Most importantly, will it have a capacity to intervene in market outcomes for egalitarian purposes, at the European in addition to the national level? How are the two levels to be linked? What sort of “Social Europe” will be built, this time for real?

 

[brogdale]

I was reading this interview with Wolfgang Streeck in Jacobin, he tackles the point people have made here that a victory for brexit will be a victory for the far right:

Yes, and he concludes "Buying Time" on that very theme:-

In Western Europe today, the greatest danger is not nationalism – least of all German nationalism – but Hayekian market liberalism. Completion of monetary union would seal the end of national democracy in Europe – and therefore of the only institution that can still be used to defend against the consolidation state. If, for the foreseeable future, the historically developed differences among European nations are too great to be integrated into a common democracy, then the institutions representing those differences may possibly, as a second-best solution, be used as a stumbling block on the downhill slope into a single market state purged of democracy. And so long as the best is no solution, the second-best is the best.

 

[redsquirrel]

I like this bit

I for one don’t put much store by ideology. Most of these people don’t believe in anything except their balance sheet, and they know how to add two and two. On political interests: they are a parallelogram of different and typically conflicting goals, never defined by one goal only: industrial capital, financial capital, governing parties, states, sometimes the labor aristocracy, all interacting under the pressure of — changing — power relations.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

These must be very worrying numbers for No. 10....

Did they ask the first question before asking the second one? If so, they primed their respondents.

 

[brogdale]

Did they ask the first question before asking the second one? If so, they primed their respondents.

Haven't seen the raw output/methodology so I can't say. Nonetheless, it's the sort of metric that the campaign teams will pay attention to.

 

[brogdale]

Smithson points out that FWIW quite a bit of £ was placed on the outcome of the EUref over the last 24hrs, and it ticked up 'Leave' & down 'Remain"

 

[William of Walworth]

How much is that betting related to all the recent/current IDS/Osborne malarkey though? brogdale ?

 

[brogdale]

How much is that betting related to all the recent/current IDS/Osborne malarkey though? brogdale ?

Don't know, but strongly correlated I'd have thought. Of course, the 'Leavists' will also be using the terrorism angle and increasingly highlighting Cameron's pro-Turkey accession position...maybe that's also starting to affect betting sentiment?

 

[brogdale]

A few of these coming through now...hmmm

 

[redsquirrel]

A few of these coming through now...hmmm

Is BMG an internet poller?

MORI had REMAIN 49%, LEAVE 41%, DK/WNV 10%. So still differences between phone and online polls but not as much as there was

It’s worth noting that the big gulf between telephone and online polls on the EU referendum has narrowed significantly. In December and January the average REMAIN lead in telephone poll was twenty points, the average lead in online polls was zero; a towering gulf between the two modes. Polls this month have averaged a 2 point REMAIN lead in online polls, a 6 point REMAIN lead in phone polls. Even excluding the ORB phone poll that seemed completely out of line with all other telephone polls, the average of ComRes, MORI and Survation was 9 points. There’s still a significant contrast between online and phone polls on the topic… but a gap of seven points is far, far less of a gulf than a gap of twenty points!

 

[Santino]

Is BMG an internet poller?

MORI had REMAIN 49%, LEAVE 41%, DK/WNV 10%. So still differences between phone and online polls but not as much as there was

Polling companies adjust their results by comparing them with the results of other polling companies, so you can't always tell if narrowing gaps are just a result of the different companies clustering together (as happened before the general election).

 

[brogdale]

Polling companies adjust their results by comparing them with the results of other polling companies, so you can't always tell if narrowing gaps are just a result of the different companies clustering together (as happened before the general election).

...or a genuine reflection of a trend in voting intentions.

 

[andysays]

...or a genuine reflection of a trend in voting intentions.

If it is that, I don't think much of the trend can be put down to the recent electoral communication from LEAVE.EU (are they the official "Leave" campaign? I remember there was some question of which of a number of rival campaigns would get official status and the financial backing that comes with that status, but I can't remember if that ever got resolved).

Anyway, the letter I had today tells me it's the most important vote of my life, but if I was basing my decision simply on the info contained, it really wouldn't do anything to persuade me.

 

[coley]

While I intend to vote leave, the thought of Cameron's resignation ( and those of his marras) and their subsequent humiliation should tempt even the most ardent Europhiles to change their minds.

 

[8115]

If we leave the EU and Scotland leave the UK, does that mean I would not be able to work in Scotland easily? Because it's something I've always fancied doing.

 

[8115]

I predict the vote will be to leave by the way, I think it's going to happen.

 

[weltweit]

I haven't been watching much television, has there been much campaigning yet?

 

[8115]

I haven't been watching much television, has there been much campaigning yet?

Not really, the government keep saying everything will get worse if we leave the EU, the leave camp are staying quite quiet, judging I think rightly that people will tend to disbelieve the government and that a lot of people are naturally dissatisfied with being in Europe anyway.

 

[coley]

If we leave the EU and Scotland leave the UK, does that mean I would not be able to work in Scotland easily? Because it's something I've always fancied doing.

If Scotland leaves the UK I think you might have some problems finding a job in Scotland