The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[bimble]

Replace the word leaving with staying, and could you answer such a hypothetical?

Yes that’s what I mean, I can think of a few scenarios in which I’d be convinced I was wrong & it’s a good thing we left. For instance a government in UK doing good things that EU rules would have prevented, or the EU declaring war on China, or I don’t know, can imagine quite a few. Even just things not getting significantly worse here in a range of ways social & economic, by 2030, compared to neighbouring countries, would convince me I think.

 

[MickiQ]

All we had to do was remain tied to a failed superstate for ever and we could have avoided some delays at the border as new system beds in. Anyone who disagrees is Nick Griffin..

I assume you’ll be pointing out these inevitable border issues to the Scots Bimble and urging them to vote to remain in the UK?

no-one is going to pretend that the EU does not have problems but by what criteria do you define it as failed?

 

[Pickman's model]

Just out of curiosity, let’s imagine say it’s 2026 or 2030, is there any measure or circumstance which would make you think that leaving was a mistake? I can think of a few things that would convince me I was wrong. You?

Missing out the intervening years

 

[mojo pixy]

no-one is going to pretend that the EU does not have problems but by what criteria do you define it as failed?

Failed state - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"A state can also fail if the government loses its legitimacy even if it is performing its functions properly."

I know, wikipedia, but still, the point is that ''failed'' relates not just to capability but also legitimacy. As an essentially undemocratic entity the EU will always lack the legitimacy of a ruling body elected by and accountable to its citizens.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Just out of curiosity, let’s imagine say it’s 2026 or 2030, is there any measure or circumstance which would make you think that leaving was a mistake? I can think of a few things that would convince me I was wrong. You?

Now we’ve got the dead drag of the EU off our back the next decade should be committed to getting the dead drag of the Tories off our back and shifting the political economy, as much as is possible, away from the orthodoxy of the last 45 years. In the post covid economy some form of intervention by the state will be inevitable. The question is what form it will take and the extent to which we can mobilise in the workplace and in our communities.

In answer to your question, I can conceive of no circumstances where I’d pine for EU style double liberalism.

 

[spitfire]

I don't understand why there's a customs office there anyway, i thought government advice was to call Johnson up and he'll throw all paperwork in the bin?

I tried that, the person who answered the call wouldn't put me through and wouldn't take a message for him to call me back. He's "busy" apparently.

 

[MickiQ]

Failed state - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"A state can also fail if the government loses its legitimacy even if it is performing its functions properly."

I know, wikipedia, but still, the point is that ''failed'' relates not just to capability but also legitimacy. As an essentially undemocratic entity the EU will always lack the legitimacy of a ruling body elected by and accountable to its citizens.

One of the EU's top bureaucrats has clearly got too big for her boots in recent days and now appears to be flailing around trying to cover her arse. Hardly a sign that it has lost legitimacy or it isn't performing its functions correctly.
Your second point is a bit more debatable, Is the EU undemocratic? The European Parliament is directly elected though it seems to be more a talking shop than anything else but a great deal of power still resides with national governments not the EU and they are directly elected.

 

[bimble]

That’s nice Smokeandsteam . I’m probably just too pessimistic. Find it hard to imagine a trajectory for the coming decade here that doesn’t resemble America or Singapore more than it resembles somewhere I’d see as an improvement on what we’ve currently got. I do want to be wrong.

 

[brogdale]

One of the EU's top bureaucrats has clearly got too big for her boots in recent days and now appears to be flailing around trying to cover her arse. Hardly a sign that it has lost legitimacy or it isn't performing its functions correctly.
Your second point is a bit more debatable, Is the EU undemocratic? The European Parliament is directly elected though it seems to be more a talking shop than anything else but a great deal of power still resides with national governments not the EU and they are directly elected.

If you haven't already had the chance, would recommend the 3-part Perry Anderson LRB piece(s) linked to in the EU reading thread.

 

[mojo pixy]

Your second point is a bit more debatable, Is the EU undemocratic? The European Parliament is directly elected though it seems to be more a talking shop than anything else but a great deal of power still resides with national governments not the EU and they are directly elected.

Right, but 27 national governments and ''The EU'' are not at all the same thing. The European Commmission has powers that those governments all together do not have.

One of the EU's top bureaucrats has clearly got too big for her boots in recent days and now appears to be flailing around trying to cover her arse. Hardly a sign that it has lost legitimacy or it isn't performing its functions correctly.

This wasn't where the lack of legitimacy shows tbh - if incompetence makes for an illegitimate government (which is btw an arguable point) then ours is ... well, worse. But this isn't really about competence, it's literally about whether they are elected by and accountable to the people. Our shower of shits were elected (not by me but that's irrelevant) and are technically accountable. I mean, whether they ultimately will allow themselves to be held to account, is again an arguable point, but technically they are accountable. The EU Commission is not even technically accountable as far as I can tell.

Still, I voted Remain in 2016 and my learning about the EU is still a work in progress.

 

[Pickman's model]

The European Parliament is directly elected though it seems to be more a talking shop than anything else but a great deal of power still resides with national governments not the EU and they are directly elected.

parliament from parler, to talk. it is therefore no surprise it is a talking shop

 

[brogdale]

I don't understand why there's a customs office there anyway, i thought government advice was to call Johnson up and he'll throw all paperwork in the bin?

Yep...



and...

In addition to concerns over graffiti it is understood staff expressed concerns that individuals had been spotted taking down number plate details.

 

[TopCat]

Just out of curiosity, let’s imagine say it’s 2026 or 2030, is there any measure or circumstance which would make you think that leaving was a mistake? I can think of a few things that would convince me I was wrong. You?

I would love to know what would cause you to change your mind. If the events of the last week would not change your mind what would?

For me if the EU reverted to being the EEA I would consider rejoining if it was put to a vote.

 

[Pickman's model]

I would love to know what would cause you to change your mind. If the events of the last week would not change your mind what would?

For me if the EU reverted to being the EEA I would consider rejoining if it was put to a vote.

eec. eea is eu plus friends

 

[brogdale]

Right, but 27 national governments and ''The EU'' are not at all the same thing. The European Commmission has powers that those governments all together do not have.



This wasn't where the lack of legitimacy shows tbh - if incompetence makes for an illegitimate government (which is btw an arguable point) then ours is ... well, worse. But this isn't really about competence, it's literally about whether they are elected by and accountable to the people. Our shower of shits were elected (not by me but that's irrelevant) and are technically accountable. I mean, whether they ultimately will allow themselves to be held to account, is again an arguable point, but technically they are accountable. The EU Commission is not even technically accountable as far as I can tell.

Still, I voted Remain in 2016 and my learning about the EU is still a work in progress.

A point that Streeck was arguing in his 2017 book "Buying Time" (based on his Frankfurt lectures of 2012) in which he concluded:

 

[MickiQ]

If you haven't already had the chance, would recommend the 3-part Perry Anderson LRB piece(s) linked to in the EU reading thread.

I'll read that when I get chance, I'm supposed to be working at the moment

 

[brogdale]

I'll read that when I get chance, I'm supposed to be working at the moment

They do take some time to read but, based on what you were saying, I'd guess that you'd enjoy them, particularly the 1st 2 pieces. Apols for distracting from yer work!

 

[brogdale]

NI protocol unraveling quicker, under Loyalist pressure, than might have been expected?

 

[Pickman's model]

NI protocol unraveling quicker, under Loyalist pressure, than might have been expected?

No, I thought it would have unraveled some weeks back

 

[sleaterkinney]

It's not actually started fully yet, there was a grace period for some things.

 

[Pickman's model]

It's not actually started fully yet, there was a grace period for some things.

Unraveling and so on I suppose

 

[brogdale]

It's not actually started fully yet, there was a grace period for some things.

The 3months/6 months thing?

 

[ska invita]

The 3months/6 months thing?

1st April IIRC before proper customs procedures kick in
ETA: Irish Sea border: What will happen once the grace periods end?

Talks with the EU? Good luck with that.
Whats the alternative though here? What to talk about exactly? What are the DUP proposing?

 

[editor]

Any comment on the events of the last week? Here's a clue, the effects are bigger than a bit of duty.

Ah, the classic shift of the goalposts. No, I'd like to stick with discussing the negative impact of consumers buying goods post-Brexit and the ridiculous statement that I should be expected to trawl through 1,100+ word documents just to buy something from Europe and, even then. still be not sure of the outcome.

 

[editor]

Meanwhile, port workers are now fearing for their safety:

Brexit: Animal-based food checks at ports suspended

Arlene Foster denounces "threats" against staff checking on animal and food products at Larne and Belfast.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[andysays]

One of the EU's top bureaucrats has clearly got too big for her boots in recent days and now appears to be flailing around trying to cover her arse. Hardly a sign that it has lost legitimacy or it isn't performing its functions correctly.
Your second point is a bit more debatable, Is the EU undemocratic? The European Parliament is directly elected though it seems to be more a talking shop than anything else but a great deal of power still resides with national governments not the EU and they are directly elected.

Tempting though it might be to suggest that this is simply a case of one of the EU's top bureaucrats suddenly and inexplicably getting too big for their boots, I'm not convinced that's really a complete explanation.

But go on claiming this is all about some aberrant (auto suggest wanted to make that "abhorrent", funnily enough) individual behaviour rather than a more deep seated structural problem if it makes you feel better.

 

[butchersapron]

Tempting though it might be to suggest that this is simply a case of one of the EU's top bureaucrats suddenly and inexplicably getting too big for their boots, I'm not convinced that's really a complete explanation.

But go on claiming this is all about some aberrant (auto suggest wanted to make that "abhorrent", funnily enough) individual behaviour rather than a more deep seated structural problem if it makes you feel better.

Pretty cool structure that allows individuals like this to rise to the top over and over again isn't it:

That its top ranks have long been corrupted by immunity in their occupance of power is plain. It is enough to make a roll-call of its leading ornaments. Christine Lagarde, current president of the European Central Bank: suspected of complicity in fraud and malversation of public funds in covering for the crook Bernard Tapie, improperly paid €404 million by Crédit Lyonnais in 2008, when she was minister of the economy in France; in 2016 discharged by the state for ‘negligence’ with no penalty, in view of her ‘personality’ and (no doubt especially) her ‘international reputation’. By that time she was head of the IMF – where her predecessor, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, had had to resign on charges of sexual assault and attempted rape and his predecessor, Rodrigo Rato, had been imprisoned on charges of embezzlement. Ursula von der Leyen, current president of the European Commission: charged in 2015 with plagiarism on 43 per cent of the pages of her 1990 doctorate at Hannover Medical School; the university commission that absolved her, headed by an old acquaintance from the alumni association at the institution, was heavily criticised in the media, but after the fall of two previous ministers in Merkel’s government, both on charges of plagiarism, exhaustion had set in and she was allowed to keep her doctorate.

Von der Leyen’s predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg: survived repeated exposure of his involvement in the tax avoidance and policies facilitating money-laundering for which his country is famous. Her vice-president and high representative for foreign affairs and security, the Spaniard Josep Borrell: forced to resign as president of the European University Institute in Florence for concealing the annual salary of €300,000 he had been receiving from a Spanish energy company. Michel Barnier, EU commissioner in charge of Brexit negotiations with Britain: showered with ‘donations’ amounting to more than 300,000 francs – more than seven times the total received by his seven rivals – when running as a Gaullist candidate for Haute-Savoie in the legislative elections of 1993. Olaf Scholz, finance minister and vice-chancellor of Germany, hoping to succeed Merkel next year: caught in the media headlights after appointing – a first in the country – the co-chief executive of Goldman Sachs in Germany and Austria, Jörg Kukies, as his deputy for financial market and European policy, only to have to admit that he knew Kukies had been on intimate terms with Markus Braun, fraudster boss of the now bankrupt Wirecard company (assets once valued at $28 billion), the largest financial scandal in the history of Germany. Scholz’s chances of surviving parliamentary investigation intact: slim.

 

[andysays]

Pretty cool structure that allows individuals like this to rise to the top over and over again isn't it:

That its top ranks have long been corrupted by immunity in their occupance of power is plain. It is enough to make a roll-call of its leading ornaments. Christine Lagarde, current president of the European Central Bank: suspected of complicity in fraud and malversation of public funds in covering for the crook Bernard Tapie, improperly paid €404 million by Crédit Lyonnais in 2008, when she was minister of the economy in France; in 2016 discharged by the state for ‘negligence’ with no penalty, in view of her ‘personality’ and (no doubt especially) her ‘international reputation’. By that time she was head of the IMF – where her predecessor, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, had had to resign on charges of sexual assault and attempted rape and his predecessor, Rodrigo Rato, had been imprisoned on charges of embezzlement. Ursula von der Leyen, current president of the European Commission: charged in 2015 with plagiarism on 43 per cent of the pages of her 1990 doctorate at Hannover Medical School; the university commission that absolved her, headed by an old acquaintance from the alumni association at the institution, was heavily criticised in the media, but after the fall of two previous ministers in Merkel’s government, both on charges of plagiarism, exhaustion had set in and she was allowed to keep her doctorate.

Von der Leyen’s predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg: survived repeated exposure of his involvement in the tax avoidance and policies facilitating money-laundering for which his country is famous. Her vice-president and high representative for foreign affairs and security, the Spaniard Josep Borrell: forced to resign as president of the European University Institute in Florence for concealing the annual salary of €300,000 he had been receiving from a Spanish energy company. Michel Barnier, EU commissioner in charge of Brexit negotiations with Britain: showered with ‘donations’ amounting to more than 300,000 francs – more than seven times the total received by his seven rivals – when running as a Gaullist candidate for Haute-Savoie in the legislative elections of 1993. Olaf Scholz, finance minister and vice-chancellor of Germany, hoping to succeed Merkel next year: caught in the media headlights after appointing – a first in the country – the co-chief executive of Goldman Sachs in Germany and Austria, Jörg Kukies, as his deputy for financial market and European policy, only to have to admit that he knew Kukies had been on intimate terms with Markus Braun, fraudster boss of the now bankrupt Wirecard company (assets once valued at $28 billion), the largest financial scandal in the history of Germany. Scholz’s chances of surviving parliamentary investigation intact: slim.

Merely a run of unfortunate and unlucky coincidences, having nothing to do with the EU and its structures, ne c'est pas?

 

[brogdale]

Merely a run of unfortunate and unlucky coincidences, ne c'est pas?

Same with how unlucky they were to have had so many former Nazis involved from the inception.

 

[andysays]

Same with how unlucky they were to have had so many former Nazis involved from the inception.

Could have happened to anyone...