The 2019 General Election

[maomao]

So Labour will swing rightwards with a centreist drone and likely lose again in 2024. Or dump Corbyn but keep the social democratic flavoured policies. Change the scenery and cast but keep the same script?

The former seems more likely, given the early prognostications.

Leadership election rules have changed and the now enlarged membership won't be swinging too far rightward. I don't see how the new leader could be a Blair clone.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Johnson personally was fine though?

People like "characters", cunts who are amusing.

 

[Azrael]

There is an ingrained sense of the legitimacy of the democratic vote (i mean any democratic vote) amongst w/c communities - even those alienated from formal politics, even from those who voted remain. I don't think that exists to the same extent across all of society. The tories could campaign with that as background understanding in these areas - not nationalism.

Respect for the vote extends across communities, which is why the "People's Vote" campaign didn't get going until 2018, after every attempt at a pragmatic Brexit was repeatedly ignored by Whitehall, and the full extent of Vote Leave's dirty tricks became public.

The underlying problem's that the 2016 referendum's been de-legitimized among the 2nd referendum crowd, but thanks to a media blackout on the extent of Leave's lawbreaking and Labour ignoring the issue (with a few brave exceptions like Ian Lucas), this hasn't escaped the bubble, leaving people to conclude that their vote's being disregarded not because of mass electoral rule breaking, but because Remainers hold them in contempt. PR disaster from start to finish.

 

[xenon]

I've heard of very few conversations with 'should be' labour voters that suggested that going back to Blairite-Miliband-esque economic policies would be what would get them to vote Labour - the problem was overwhelmingly the london-based swing to remain and Corbyn personally.

From where I sit it looked like fairly obvious, Politics 101 stuff - accept the referendum result, and don't ask people to vote for a bloke who went on cycling holidays in East Germany, was best mates with Gerry Adams, and who, through his odd friendships and bizarre tastes in art, allowed himself to painted as anti-Semitic.

Corbynite economics were almost universally popular - and not just amongst would-be Labour motors - but the move away from respecting the vote, and the man personally, was electoral poison on the doorstep.

Interesting. Yes, I'm no Corbynista. I'll admit, I don't get the furver for Brexit amongst large sections of the populas. I spoiled my voet in that one. So for me putting aside my misgivings about Corbyn, the ugly antisematism debarkle, I could vote Labour for the rest.

I can't yet find much empathy for the gainfully employed former Labour, debutant Tory voters who've given this bunch of cunts a mandate though.

 

[Proper Tidy]

So Labour will swing rightwards with a centreist drone and likely lose again in 2024. Or dump Corbyn but keep the social democratic flavoured policies. Change the scenery and cast but keep the same script?

The former seems more likely, given the early prognostications.

Will be a huge battle in labour which the left is best placed to win imo, they control labour now. It won't just drift away into a soft left nothingness, will be blood and guts first. Honestly don't know what labour party a year away will look like.

 

[maomao]

leaving people to conclude that their vote's being disregarded not because of mass electoral rule breaking, but because Remainers hold them in contempt.

Telling people they voted to leave the EU because of foreign money is what makes them think you hold them in contempt.

 

[Brainaddict]

No, he's not liked - but he respected their vote.

This is true. If Johnson ever calls an election relying on his personal likeability he will be in for a shock. He has a small fanbase who he might mistake for the mainstream, but they aren't. Most people held their noses to vote for him.

 

[Shechemite]

I work in the NHS. I'm not in today but lots of colleagues have been in touch. We feel pretty broken but I suppose at least we're all in despair together.

There's already been talk of when we'll be striking over the US deal.

Could be an opportunity to link in with disability/social care/welfare issues treelover ?

 

[teuchter]

Historically successful movements were interconnected with a non state network of working class institutions including trade unions, cooperatives, newspapers, mutual aid groups, art scenes etc.

I think what you are saying is your 'gets it' section of the left would have been incapable of success in this election because these networks don't exist in sufficient strength. But we are talking about what would or wouldn't have worked in the context of current reality.

 

[teuchter]

No, he's not liked - but he respected their vote.

But it seems like you are saying Corbyn's policies weren't what mattered - it's him personally. Then that Johnson's policies were what mattered - not him personally.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I think what you are saying is your 'gets it' section of the left would have been incapable of success in this election because these networks don't exist in sufficient strength. But we are talking about what would or wouldn't have worked in the context of current reality.

You can keep seeking binary, simple answers. But there aren’t any.

This is a slow motion car crash.

The majority left position on Brexit was the fuse.

The first question today is are the left listening. Has the penny now dropped. The early signs are that the answer is no.

 

[Azrael]

Telling people they voted to leave the EU because of foreign money is what makes them think you hold them in contempt.

Of course, which is why not even Nick Timothy would put it in those terms.

Democracy's worthless without law, particularly laws mandating a level playing field. If you support an electoral free-for-all that'd make the justices behind Citizens United blush, with no spending limits, no restrictions on campaign ads, and no limit to the lies that can be told, well fine, it's a POV, but one that should be agreed upfront, not done covertly in gleeful defiance of the law.

 

[sunnysidedown]

peak moment for me last night was seeing my home town turn blue for the first ever time on one TV screen. And Aaron Bastani, looking like a man who had just seen his income disappear, on the other, telling us Corbyn got twice as many retweets as Boris.

What a time to be alive.

 

[kebabking]

But it seems like you are saying Corbyn's policies weren't what mattered - it's him personally. Then that Johnson's policies were what mattered - not him personally.

is this the bit where you finally grasp that politics can be complicated?

 

[a_chap]

Take a look at the number of votes per seat column

(via the Electoral Reform Society)

 

[andysays]

Historically successful movements were interconnected with a non state network of working class institutions including trade unions, cooperatives, newspapers, mutual aid groups, art scenes etc.

This is true, but for a variety of reasons, social/technological/whatever, those institutions no longer exist, and are not going to be recreated in their previous form.

As I've pointed out before, harkening back to the glory days of the traditional labour movement and dismissing anything and anyone outside of that won't get us anywhere

 

[Smokeandsteam]

This is true, but for a variety of reasons, social/technological/whatever, those institutions no longer exist, and are not going to be recreated in their previous form.

You are right they can’t be. But they, and similar collective working class networks, have to be recreated in some form.

 

[teuchter]

is this the bit where you finally grasp that politics can be complicated?

That's an odd thing to say when I was questioning what seemed like an overly simplistic explanation for LP failure - it was 'obvious' what went wrong:

From where I sit it looked like fairly obvious, Politics 101 stuff - accept the referendum result, and don't ask people to vote for a bloke who went on cycling holidays in East Germany, was best mates with Gerry Adams, and who, through his odd friendships and bizarre tastes in art, allowed himself to painted as anti-Semitic.

 

[teuchter]

You are right they can’t be. But they, and similar collective working class networks, have to be recreated in some form.

By who?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

By who?

By those interested in pro working class politics

 

[The39thStep]

This is true, but for a variety of reasons, social/technological/whatever, those institutions no longer exist, and are not going to be recreated in their previous form.

As I've pointed out before, harkening back to the glory days of the traditional labour movement and dismissing anything and anyone outside of that won't get us anywhere

Helping Hands in Edingburgh is a good example of independent mutual aid

 

[Yossarian]

Meanwhile, in a better timeline:

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Helping Hands in Edingburgh is a good example of independent mutual aid

Yes. It and similar projects needs a thread of their own at some point in the future. Projects like this - unglamorous, hard graft, requiring of commitment and led and dominated by the class itself - have much to tell us.

By the class, of the class, for the class

 

[Azrael]

This is true, but for a variety of reasons, social/technological/whatever, those institutions no longer exist, and are not going to be recreated in their previous form.

As I've pointed out before, harkening back to the glory days of the traditional labour movement and dismissing anything and anyone outside of that won't get us anywhere

Traditional industrial institutions may not be coming back, but Labour could embed itself deep into communities with new structures like friendly societies and co-ops, and by empowering locals to become parliamentary candidates.

It's striking how, both in the 2016 referendum and now this general, so many Lab MPs held so little sway in their constituencies, looking like so many district officers, not representatives embedded in their communities. Without the interface that used to be provided by industry, unions and so on, then however good the MP, that alienation's inevitable.

 

[existentialist]

No, he's not liked - but he respected their vote.

I'm not sure he has. Johnston has "cynical opportunist" written through him like a stick of rock, and I think it's suited his purposes, for now, to get behind the whole Brexit thing. I have no doubt that, just as it starts to get sticky - and it will - he'll find a convenient fridge to jump into, or the board of a merchant bank to join, do a Cameron, and fuck off out of it to leave someone else to pick up the mess.

The biggest tragedy of this is not that the Conservatives won, but that a government was elected on the basis of lies and unfulfillable promises...and a government from a party with a solid track record of botching up pretty much everything they've touched.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Meanwhile, in a better timeline:

View attachment 192871

Picture and end of the headline make it look like ol' Jeremy's having a different kind of 'Christmas miracle"

 

[Poi E]

and a government from a party with a solid track record of botching up pretty much everything they've touched.

This is reassuring.

 

[andysays]

You are right they can’t be. But they, and similar collective working class networks, have to be recreated in some form.

On this point, I agree 100%, but we need to find new forms relevant to the whole working class as it actually exists now, rather than dismissing the views of those you don't consider PFWC

 

[andysays]

Helping Hands in Edingburgh is a good example of independent mutual aid

I'll Google them later

 

[The39thStep]

I'll Google them later

They are on Twitter as well