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I understand projections for the election result have shifted dramatically. The internal ‘ceiling’ (the best case scenario) has gone from a majority of near 200 in week one, to a majority around the 80 mark. The ‘floor’ is now a hung Parliament — which is a worse case scenario and still an unlikely one. In response to the numbers, the Conservatives said they would not comment on ‘polls or projections’.
The mood in CCHQ is one of annoyance verging on anger. A majority of 80 MPs is what a lot of Conservative MPs have regarded as par since the election was first called, so anything below that will be a disappointment. Theresa May’s decision to run a tight ship with her two closest advisers — Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill — at the helm could come back to haunt her. Tories were only happy going along with the high levels of control freakery on the basis that it worked.
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