The 2017 General Election campaign

[The39thStep]

It's hard to muster up the energy to vote and there's always something better to do.

I'm in a conservative safe seat and though I started the election determined to vote the last couple of days I've spent in a fug of 'what's the fucking point?' She's not going to lose a 10k majority and it's not like any of the parties have really bothered campaigning around here. The various social media sites for greens and labour are well out of date.

So yeah, I don't blame young people for not voting, I'll vote but fuck me it's like rolling a stone up hill.

Good to see someone going that extra mile as they say

 

[MightyTibberton]

The Three Scenarios For The U.K. Election

A prediction - or three - from America!

It's hammering it down in Cardiff for what that's worth. Boo!

 

[Brainaddict]

It's hard to muster up the energy to vote and there's always something better to do.

I'm in a conservative safe seat and though I started the election determined to vote the last couple of days I've spent in a fug of 'what's the fucking point?' She's not going to lose a 10k majority and it's not like any of the parties have really bothered campaigning around here. The various social media sites for greens and labour are well out of date.

So yeah, I don't blame young people for not voting, I'll vote but fuck me it's like rolling a stone up hill.

I hear people saying it's not worth the time to vote and I think, stop deluding yourself, you've had wanks that lasted longer than it will take you to get to the polling station and back. You'll waste time this year on stuff that isn't even as fun as wanking, or as productive. Just fucking vote.

 

[Dogsauce]

If the Tories win on the basis of being seen to be tougher/more reliable on terrorism, then those three recent attacks will have killed a lot more than thirty-odd people once the NHS is run down and split up and many people are left without access to decent healthcare.

Labour had reasonable momentum before the Manchester attack and were making headway on domestic issues, but the narrative was shifted by a cunt with a bomb. All that Corbyn IRA/Hamas drivel had traction.

 

[kabbes]

The Three Scenarios For The U.K. Election

A prediction - or three - from America!

A clever prediction indeed. It'll either be a big Tory majority, a small Tory majority or no Tory majority.

 

[kabbes]

If the Tories win on the basis of being seen to be tougher/more reliable on terrorism, then those three recent attacks will have killed a lot more than thirty-odd people once the NHS is run down and split up and many people are left without access to decent healthcare.

Labour had reasonable momentum before the Manchester attack and were making headway on domestic issues, but the narrative was shifted by a cunt with a bomb. All that Corbyn IRA/Hamas drivel had traction.

So what you're saying is...

Theresa May was behind the bombing and stabbing? Of course, it all now makes sense.

 

[J Ed]

A clever prediction indeed. It'll either be a big Tory majority, a small Tory majority or no Tory majority.

Nate Bronze

 

[bemused]

I hear people saying it's not worth the time to vote and I think, stop deluding yourself, you've had wanks that lasted longer than it will take you to get to the polling station and back. You'll waste time this year on stuff that isn't even as fun as wanking, or as productive. Just fucking vote.

Well, if you live say in Knowsley where the Labour vote is 80% and you aren't a Labour support I could see a reason not to leave the house if it is raining.

 

[MightyTibberton]

Which echoes his prediction for the US election - a big Hilary win, a small Hilary win, or a small Trump win... It's all maths and stats from what I gather... Strange to see such a big range of polling results, though, from Cons +13 to Labour +3.

Still hammering it down in Cardiff Central (could be lovely in Cardiff South, what do I know) for that's worth. Boo!

 

[Dogsauce]

So what you're saying is...

Theresa May was behind the bombing and stabbing? Of course, it all now makes sense.

Not at all - but they were able to profit from it. I'm angry with the bomber for not only the immediate effects of their act but for moving debate onto this ground and those that will suffer for it, it gives their event more power and they deserve none.

 

[Orang Utan]

The Guardian published 15 different poll results yesterday, all predicting a Tory win

Hung parliament - the YouGov model

This is the most recent forecast (from yesterday) from the YouGov model, a forecasting model devised using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP). This involves taking polling data and, using data about the demographic composition of constituencies, and how different demographics vote, developing a seat-by-seat forecast. The Conservatives (304) would have the most seats, but even with Northern Ireland unionists (around 10) they could be outvoted by a coalition of Labour (266), the SNP (46), the Lib Dems (12) and the Greens (1).

YouGov model. Photograph: YouGov
Conservative majority of 22 - electionpolling.co.uk forecast

This is the most recent forecast on electionpolling.co.uk, based on what would happen on the basis of the swing implied by the most recent polls.

Conservative majority of 28 - New Statesman

This is the majority implied by the seat forecasts in the New Statesman’s model, which takes the latest polling figures and produces a forecast using the RegVar forecasting model.

Conservative majority of around 40 - Peter Kellner’s prediction

This is the prediction that Peter Kellner, the leading pollster and former YouGov president, set out in an Evening Standard column yesterday.

Conservative majority of 48 - Local election projection

This is the forecast that Sky New elections expert Prof Michael Thrasher produced straight after the local elections, judging what would happen in a general election based on voting in the locals. It does not take into account developments since the campaign started.

Conservative majority of 52 - Projection based on Opinium’s final poll

Opinium’s final poll suggests the Tories are on 43%, Labour 36%, the Lib Dems 8% and Ukip 5%, and Electoral Calculus says this would give the Tories a majority of 52.

Conservative majority of 58 - Projection based on “poll of polls” in Guardian poll tracker

The Guardian’s poll tracker currently has the Tories on 44%, Labour on 36%, the Lib Dems on 8%, Ukip on 4% and the Greens on 2%, and Electoral Calculus says this would give the Tories a majority of 58.

Conservative majority of 64 - the Ashcroft Model

This is the central forecast of the Ashcroft Model, a forecasting model devised by Lord Ashcroft also using MRP. But his forecast is different from YouGov’s.

The Conservatives remain on course to win a majority in the general election, according to new figures from the Ashcroft Model. Our “combined probabilistic model”, which calculates the sum of each party’s win chances in all the seats in which it is standing, estimates 357 Tory seats, or a potential majority of 64 (up four from the previous update published last Friday). However, this central estimate, based on an update survey conducted over the weekend, combines the data from three different turnout scenarios: including all those who currently say they will vote on Thursday (giving a Conservative majority of 70); including all those who say they voted in the EU referendum (a Conservative majority of 48); and assuming turnout matches that of the 2015 election (a Conservative majority of 78).

Ashcroft model. Photograph: Lord Ashcroft/Ashcroft model forecast
Conservative majority of 71 - Elections Etc combined forecast

Elections Etc is an elections website run by Stephen Fisher, an Oxford academic who is part of the team working on the BBC/Sky/ITV exit poll. The combined forecast is a forecast that produces an average of all forecasts available based on a system: using polling, and forecasting models; betting trends; and wisdom-of-the-crowd exercises. Here are their most recent figures, from five days ago.

Combined forecast for election. Photograph: Elections Etc
Conservative majority of 72 - Electoral Calculus forecast

This is the current forecast on the Electoral Calculus website, which is calculated using an average of recent polls.

Conservative majority of 75 to 99 - Betfair’s central forecast

According to figures from the bookmakers Betfair today, the Tories winning a majority of 75 to 99 is their most popular option with punters. Their odds on this are 5/1.

Conservative majority of 84 - Projection based on latest Guardian/ICM poll

The latest Guardian/ICM poll has the Tories on 45%, Labour 34%, the Lib Dems 8%, Ukip 5% and the Greens 3%, which Electoral Calculus says would give the Tories a majority of 84. A final Guardian/ICM poll is due out tomorrow.

Conservative majority of 100 - the electionforecast.co.uk model

This is a model run by Chris Hanretty at the University of East Anglia, using polling data but adjusting for trends in voting behaviour. Its most recent forecast has the Tories getting 375 seats.

Conservative majority of 105 - Nigel Marriott’s prediction

This is the prediction from the statistician Nigel Marriott, who explains his methodology here.

Conservative majority of 122 - Iain Dale’s prediction

This is the prediction from Iain Dale, the broadcaster, publisher and onetime chief of staff to David Davis. On his blog he has made predictions for every seat in the country.

 

[MightyTibberton]

Interesting post at head of the Guardian's election blog:



So, keep schtum!

 

[DexterTCN]

DexterTCN It's telling that you think being a socialist means that you must be some other party than SNP. That says everything anyone needs to know about you. So thanks for that.

Also, thanks for cheering me up. I was feeling a bit glum but I've still got a smile on my face about you thinking I'm a Trot.

Amazing. The exact opposite of what I posted.

I like these ones.....

A question of values

 

[Teaboy]

Let it go.

 

[MightyTibberton]

And I hope Caroline Lucas holds her seat.

 

[kabbes]

Not at all - but they were able to profit from it. I'm angry with the bomber for not only the immediate effects of their act but for moving debate onto this ground and those that will suffer for it, it gives their event more power and they deserve none.

No, let's stick with it. May planned the attacks. She needs to be locked up!

 

[MightyTibberton]

OK, I'll start it:

LOCK HER UP!
LOCK HER UP!
LOCK HER UP!

 

[danny la rouge]

DexterTCN I'm not clicking on that Hillsborough denier scumbag's site any more than I'd buy or read the Sun. I've told you that before.

For others who don't know, here's a taste of what he's like:

A blog detailing his transphobia: WEEKLY WANKER #017: WINGS OVER SCOTLAND

And on Hillsborough:



So don't post links to the scumbag and expect decent folk to read it. If you want us to know what he's said, you'll need to provide a précis.

 

[Orang Utan]

Isn't this the clown who lives in Somerset yet claims to be a Scottish Nationalist?

 

[Teaboy]

OK, I'll start it:

LOCK HER UP!
LOCK HER UP!
LOCK HER UP!

Now that's politics!

 

[danny la rouge]

Isn't this the clown who lives in Somerset yet claims to be a Scottish Nationalist?

That's the one, although I have to say I don't see any problem with him living wherever he wants and being a Scottish nationalist. There's other reasons for him being scum.

 

[butchersapron]

Nate Bronze

You'll be glad to hear Lena Dunham - the US electoral Eddie Izzard - has publicly declared for Corbyn. Presumably, not from Canada.

 

[killer b]

I'm baffled by the number of people on my socials talking about insisting on using a pen. Mild tinfoil hattery everywhere atm (cf. the plymouth missing postal votes).

 

[danny la rouge]

I'm baffled by the number of people on my socials talking about insisting on using a pen. Mild tinfoil hattery everywhere atm (cf. the plymouth missing postal votes).

Show them this. It'll blow their minds.

 

[Pickman's model]

Show them this. It'll blow their minds.

View attachment 108777

yeh ime fucking ink rubbers never work

 

[MightyTibberton]

I saw enormous drums of tippex in an unmarked van behind my polling station!

Wake up sheeple!

 

[DotCommunist]

yeh ime fucking ink rubbers never work

well they do get rid of the markings. By ripping the chunk of paper out. No, its either start again or use tippex, I hate tippex. Stinks and looks like jizz on your work

 

[Teaboy]

I'm baffled by the number of people on my socials talking about insisting on using a pen. Mild tinfoil hattery everywhere atm (cf. the plymouth missing postal votes).

Ah, that takes me back. Wasn't there a lot of this in the EU referendum? Lots of leave voters calling stitch-up shortly before they won anyway.

 

[killer b]

The idea that electoral skullduggery would be carried out by individually rubbing out and changing people's votes is laughable. It's like a sub-plot from a St Trinian's movie.

 

[MightyTibberton]

Stinks and looks like jizz on your work

You know this how?