Spanish Political News

[J Ed]

Who knows? The PP led Spanish state made sure that a proper referendum could not be held and indicated they would never allow one - with the PSOE in tow. I would guess that the behaviour of the Spanish state has increased the percentage in favour, but who knows? In the current circumstances, going on about percentages is rather beside the point. We are where we are. Decisions have been taken. It is how things now pan out that will determine the short term outcome and longer term implications.

Well, we do know because polling has been released today which is more or less consistent with previous polling, a majority of Catalans want more autonomy but not outright independence.

A majority is also in favour of having new elections to the Catalan parliament, which is the position of the Spanish government and is rejected by the Catalan Nationalists.

La mayoría de catalanes es favorable a que se convoquen elecciones


With this in mind, supporting increased autonomy is reasonable as is supporting a referendum. What would be absolutely bizarre would be supporting the declaration of independence without a vote, something that would be done against the will of the majority of people who live in Catalonia.

 

[Wilf]

There is fence sitting on the question of the potential success or value of Catalan independence, whilst still standing against Spanish state repression -as shown by Podemos and the CNT and CGT and is a legit position, though not one I necessarily agree 100% with - and there is fence sitting as something which is really a shy support of the status quo that sees any disruption or challenge to Spanish State as illegitimate and echoes their suggested “solutions” (Edwards) or fence sitting that is a symptom of a purism that does not recognise any potential for development of a larger challenge to Spanish and European Capital &authorities and their defenders, and high mindedly dismisses the Catalan left as hopelessly compromised by alliance with the bourgeoisie. (Some others on here). To see these latter revolutionary defeatists clapping Edwards apologism and even attacking the nuanced positions of the CGT and CNT is particularly sickening.

This isn't about purism of any kind. Horrible violence, repression and authoritarianism from the Spanish Government? Yes, of course. Should Catalonia have the right to a referendum on independence? Ditto. Should people resist the oppression? Yes. But my problem is one of plain old fashioned bourgeois democracy, that the majority of voters don't seem to want independence.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

So, backing the line of the Spanish Government and quoting polling from the establishment mouthpiece El Pais. OK. I get where you are coming from.
Nothing to see here.

 

[Favelado]

So, backing the line of the Spanish Government and quoting polling from the establishment mouthpiece El Pais. OK. I get where you are coming from.
Nothing to see here.

The polling comes from Metroscopia.

Metroscopia – Pulso de España

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

Oh well, perhaps the PP will get its way and Catalonia will elect a government of nice house trained “socialists” to act as their proxy.
Or maybe not.
A majority opposed the rebels of 1916, another alliance of romantic nationalists and republican socialists on an ill advised venture, but their martyrdom set in motion events which led to the end of British rule.
We shall see what develops.

 

[Wilf]

So, backing the line of the Spanish Government and quoting polling from the establishment mouthpiece El Pais. OK. I get where you are coming from.
Nothing to see here.

No, you don't, you really don't.

 

[Wilf]

Oh, and a question for you and Anudder Oik : do you think independence should go ahead without the majority support of the catalan people?

 

[Celyn]

I can see only an awful miltary dominated horror show - I am always profoundly shocked at how apparently easily so many people are urgently pulled down the cheap nationalism road - tribalism of the most regressive type. Spain is not in good shape - the most desperate youth employment, (my home town is increasingly swelled by a youthful educated Spanish cohort) rising homelessness and the usual neo-liberal global brutality which has shat on ordinary workers...while the shallow rule of force and authoritarian stupidity will do nothing to leaven the problems...but ooh, opportunities (for some). The whole thing is depressing.

Who, do you think, is likely to turn it into " an awful miltary dominated horror show"? The Spanish government or the Catalonian government?

 

[Mr Moose]

Who knows? The PP led Spanish state made sure that a proper referendum could not be held and indicated they would never allow one - with the PSOE in tow. I would guess that the behaviour of the Spanish state has increased the percentage in favour, but who knows? In the current circumstances, going on about percentages is rather beside the point. We are where we are. Decisions have been taken. It is how things now pan out that will determine the short term outcome and longer term implications.

But you must have an idea? Do you think it can be safely said to be above half?

If it's not that would surely indicate that confrontation with both a repressive state and fellow citizens should be avoided.

And what if it's just above half? 51/49? Enough for certainty, to in all events be right?

 

[J Ed]

So, backing the line of the Spanish Government and quoting polling from the establishment mouthpiece El Pais. OK. I get where you are coming from.
Nothing to see here.

For whatever reason you don't seem to be able to engage in the actual discussion based upon what is actually happening rather than an idealised version of what is happening in the abstract so I don't see much point in continuing this.

 

[JuanTwoThree]

I’m not demanding unity with anyone. I’m criticising whinging fence sitters and comfortable purists. For the Generalitat of 1937 with its Stalinist manipulators substitute the Spanish PP led govt. For the POUM and the CNT read the CUP and the Intersindical CSC. Neither side is going to live up to any purist standards on here. But even the fence sitters of Podemos and the anti government unions of the CNT and CGT can see the need to defend against the unleashed power of the Spanish state, regardless of what they think of Puigdemont and bourgeois separatism. Not so our resident cynics, clapping on Stanley Edwards who does sound like someone who has taken sides, and it is not the Catalan one.

No, you cannot compare something that took place as a microcosm of the battle between fascism and socialism, with the issue of Stalinism versus Trotskyism and all the world players involved, with strikingly similar flag-waving, petty, largely cultural, and selfish patriotism, from nationalists on both separatist and loyalist sides. Neither side can see beyond their national boundaries, real and imagined.

On both sides you've got a rancid right, a supine middle and a posturing alphabetti-spaghetti left.

On both sides you've got overly politicised police.

If you half close your eyes even the flags and the marches look alike.

If you substitute Visca for Viva the slogans are much the same.

I could go on.

Catalan nationalism, as it is, is a desire for a mini-me Spain that really changes nothing.

And that's only coming from the 50% of people who want it.

Of course you're right about resisting the violence of the Spanish state, but that would be true in the mines in Leon, where neither side of a real ideological battle fucks about:

 

[campanula]

Who, do you think, is likely to turn it into " an awful miltary dominated horror show"? The Spanish government or the Catalonian government?

Does it ever matter - to the likes of you and me? But probably, the balance of power will almost certainly be swayed in favour of the Spanish govt in Madrid...but it is hard for me to see this as anything but posturing on the parts of elites with a fervent civilian public, already angry, cynical, betrayed...seeking comfort in the recognition of 'us' vs 'them'. I cannot, cannot see this move as a progressive one - there was not even a clear strategy apart from woeful appeals to past injustice. I am all for solidarity...but not with an equally corrupt Catalonian right.

 

[Riklet]

10 day general strike called tomorrow by one union, not backed by CCOO and other bigger ones, afaik. They went on strike following police repression on 1-O (the referendum).

Puigdemont is out for lunch and appearing chill. Will be interesting to see who gets locked up this coming week, or if the government is wary of deepening the crisis by locking up hundreds of politicians.

Big demo against independence now in Barcelona. Mixture of types and politics on it, I'm sure. No surprise for most of us. Legally there is no Catalan government in charge now, anyway. Colau the leftist mayor of the city has attacked both sides again for their rush to nationalism and provocation. I have a lot of respect for her.

Btw, there seem to be some solidarity actions taking place with Catalunya in the UK in some places though against Spanish 'facism' and 'colonialiam'. Mainly Catalans or is it a lefty thing? Anyone seen anything?

 

[Pickman's model]

No, you don't, you really don't.

If you wanna be a poster
You better get with El Pais

 

[Pickman's model]

Oh, and a question for you and Anudder Oik : do you think independence should go ahead without the majority support of the catalan people?

Perhaps he could ask his ruling class chums

 

[ddraig]

Btw, there seem to be some solidarity actions taking place with Catalunya in the UK in some places though against Spanish 'facism' and 'colonialiam'. Mainly Catalans or is it a lefty thing? Anyone seen anything?

there was one in Cardiff, didn't go, i think it's mainly lefties and people who want independence here too

 

[Riklet]

La mayoría de catalanes es favorable a que se convoquen elecciones

Some interesting stats here for espanish speakers. Havent looked into them properly yet though tbf

 

[Favelado]

Only 29% in favour of independence. I trust Metroscopia but shall we put it to some scrutiny to see if it's a contestable source? That might be a worthwhile activity. Who does is behind it - how corruptible is it? etc.

It's the equivalent of Gallup or whatever so it should be fine.

Tough stats for the Catalanistas on here to swallow. How are you going to explain those away?

 

[Favelado]

Only 19% of those surveyed only felt Catalan.

The right away ahead here is a sanctioned referendum. Anything else seems daft and against the will of the people. The Madrid and Catalan governments might have one last chance to do the listening they haven't bothered with so far.

 

[Wilf]

Yep to all that. I'd love to see some communal resistance to Madrid and direct rule, but can't go along with the 'Catalinista = progressive = if you're not signed up you with us you are really with Madrid' line. And yes also, those are rather awkward figures for Anudder Oik and Jeremiah18.17. Hope they will respond rather than just repeating the same old lines.

National liberation, class, possibilities for the future - all sorts of complexities, particularly in a neo-liberal world/EU. We should all admit that, but ignoring the fact that the majority of Catalans don't actually want full independence is a significant stumbling block to having a mature discussion.

 

[where to]

That 29% figure is clearly wrong - 38% of the electorate went out and voted Yes to independence a matter of weeks ago.

As is often the case with Catalan indy polls that poll offered a third option - the extension of right and devolved powers. The only consensus in Catalonia is for an extension of devolution, so no surprise many went for that option ahead of outright indy. But extended devolution is not on the table. Only a two option Yes/ No poll accurately tests views on indy. My sense is that there may be a very fine majority for indy, but its marginal. It needs to be tested by a full, legal referendum.

 

[planetgeli]

Only 19% of those surveyed only felt Catalan.

The right away ahead here is a sanctioned referendum. Anything else seems daft and against the will of the people. The Madrid and Catalan governments might have one last chance to do the listening they haven't bothered with so far.

Another yes to this but it’s far too sensible a course of action for it to actually happen. If Rajoy was against the first being legal, for reasons no one seems willing to explain, he’s hardly likely to change his mind for a second referendum is he.

 

[Wilf]

That 29% figure is clearly wrong - 38% of the electorate went out and voted Yes to independence a matter of weeks ago.

As is often the case with Catalan indy polls that poll offered a third option - the extension of right and devolved powers. The only consensus in Catalonia is for an extension of devolution, so no surprise many went for that option ahead of outright indy. But extended devolution is not on the table. Only a two option Yes/ No poll accurately tests views on indy. My sense is that there may be a very fine majority for indy, but its marginal. It needs to be tested by a full, legal referendum.

Well, yes, that explains the disparity between the figures, but I think you draw the wrong conclusions from that. I'd say the deeper reality is that the majority of Catalans don't favour outright independence. That might change, in fact I'm surprised the figures haven't changed after the state violence (they might have, can't speak Spanish so I can only see the figures in those poll links). However they don't seem to have changed. FWIW,, before others (not you) start accusing me of being a dupe of Madrid I think Catalonia has every right to have a proper agreed referendum and the repression surrounding the whole process is vile. But the issues of whether there really is support for indie doesn't go away, even as the repression mounts.

 

[tim]

Oh well, perhaps the PP will get its way and Catalonia will elect a government of nice house trained “socialists” to act as their proxy.
Or maybe not.
A majority opposed the rebels of 1916, another alliance of romantic nationalists and republican socialists on an ill advised venture, but their martyrdom set in motion events which led to the end of British rule.
We shall see what develops.

If Rajoy has Puigdemont tied to a chair in La Sagrada Familia and garotted by the Guardia Civil, then Spanish rule will be at an end. In reality though that probably won't happen.

 

[tim]

Another yes to this but it’s far too sensible a course of action for it to actually happen. If Rajoy was against the first being legal, for reasons no one seems willing to explain, he’s hardly likely to change his mind for a second referendum is he.

I think it has been explained quite clearly.

According to the Spanish constitution Spain is "an indissoluble union", so any attempt by a region to seccede violates the constitution. Consequently, central government believes it has the right to take control of the region

 

[Stanley Edwards]

That 29% figure is clearly wrong - 38% of the electorate went out and voted Yes to independence a matter of weeks ago...

You do NOT know this. Many ballot boxes went missing. The figures given out as the result were not validated in anyway. We may as well have been told any figure. We don't even know how many people actually voted. We are told 40% turned out to vote. We are told many votes went missing. We are told 98% of counted papers were in favour of independence. It is totally meaningless. Given that all we have been told is coming from an organisation proven to be corrupt and highly unreliable, playing outside of the rules, lying... it reasonable to assume their stats are total bullshit. Even the exit polls are total rubbish.

People were given a Third option in the survey linked to, because that is probably exactly what will happen in a fair and regulated vote.

 

[Wilf]

Oh well, perhaps the PP will get its way and Catalonia will elect a government of nice house trained “socialists” to act as their proxy.
Or maybe not.
A majority opposed the rebels of 1916, another alliance of romantic nationalists and republican socialists on an ill advised venture, but their martyrdom set in motion events which led to the end of British rule.
We shall see what develops.

I've only just clocked this bit. Are you admitting the lack of majority support and arguing the masses will catch up with vanguard at a later date? Sounds like it.

 

[tim]

You do NOT know this. Many ballot boxes went missing. The figures given out as the result were not validated in anyway. We may as well have been told any figure. We don't even know how many people actually voted. We are told 40% turned out to vote. We are told many votes went missing. We are told 98% of counted papers were in favour of independence. It is totally meaningless. Given that all we have been told is coming from an organisation proven to be corrupt and highly unreliable, playing outside of the rules, lying... it reasonable to assume their stats are total bullshit. Even the exit polls are total rubbish.

People were given a Third option in the survey linked to, because that is probably exactly what will happen in a fair and regulated vote.

Another post from Stan that I totally agree with.

 

[Wilf]

You do NOT know this. Many ballot boxes went missing. The figures given out as the result were not validated in anyway. We may as well have been told any figure. We don't even know how many people actually voted. We are told 40% turned out to vote. We are told many votes went missing. We are told 98% of counted papers were in favour of independence. It is totally meaningless. Given that all we have been told is coming from an organisation proven to be corrupt and highly unreliable, playing outside of the rules, lying... it reasonable to assume their stats are total bullshit. Even the exit polls are total rubbish.

People were given a Third option in the survey linked to, because that is probably exactly what will happen in a fair and regulated vote.

You are pushing this line too far. From memory, you've got the turnout figure too low and the claimed indie % vote too high anyway. But my point is that you are neglecting the police battering people who were trying to vote (and likely to vote indie if they were going out to vote at all). It was a problematic and opposed ballot, but you can't put all the problems of the ballot at the door or Puidgemont et al.

Edit: basically, I'm saying that even in the circumstances of this vote, the outcome wasn't 'totally meaningless'.

 

[Stanley Edwards]

...

Edit: basically, I'm saying that even in the circumstances of this vote, the outcome wasn't 'totally meaningless'.

I think it is 'totally meaningless'. The whole thing was such a mess. We have no idea where the final stats came from, or how they were collated and counted.

I am not ignoring the police actions. Far from it, I am including those actions in a reasonable conclusion that it is all meaningless. There is not point to be pushed.

If there was any meaningful outcome, then it brought the issue to the World media. There is no easy resolution. You have to go with the majority outcome, but then, you have to be able to represent the minority fairly also.

My experience generally of Catalunya is that the pro Independence movement comes largely from a very conservative power base amongst the old money establishment, and landowners in rural areas. The fashionable vote may well be alive and well in younger generations of Barcelona and more fashionable cities, but they aren't going to put pen to paper when the real vote happens, because few of them actually have a right to vote in a legal election.

There are no verifiable statistics available from the illegal referendum. They are therefore 'totally meaningless'.