Spanish Political News

[Anudder Oik]

What about those polls though?

Polls are quite often wrong, see brexit and Trump for example.

 

[Stanley Edwards]

Well you can exclude everyone below the voting age for a start, lunatics, etc

OK. I meant 'what percentage of the people living in Barcelona of legal voting age'.

Barcelona has a huge immigrant population. Immigrants from all sorts of countries, all sorts of backgrounds, all sorts of legal status to be resident in Barcelona (and, many with no legal status at all). Few of them have the right to vote. Of all the people I know living within the municipality, only Two I know for sure can vote. That is Two from around 50+. Most are Spanish.

 

[Stanley Edwards]

Yeh. Well it will all end in totally meaningless tears then

It isn't going to end in tears in the way you think.

I was referring only to the the statistics supposedly representing the result. Not the vote itself, or the 'event' if you like.

 

[Favelado]

Polls are quite often wrong, see brexit and Trump for example.

The margin of error would need to be massive in this case. 19% only feel Catalan. They can't be 31% out.

 

[Anudder Oik]

In a situation of dual power, opportunities often arise for other social actors. Perhaps people on here should be looking at that rather than following the establishment and MSM narrative.

You are the first to mention Dual power on the thread. According to the PP government, that is now a reality. In yet another dumb move or just pure visciousness, Rajoy has named Soraya santa Maria as president of the catalan people. She is the minister who gave the order for the level of violence to be inflicted on catalans on the day they went to the polls. So, obviously a good choice from the PP there. The PP has 8% of the vote in Catalonia but now thinks that with the 155 law they can take over completely.

The CUP and others are very worried about what Puigdemont's next move will be. We have had the republic since friday and yet he strangely didn't declare it from the generalitat balcony and hasn't been sharing information with allies on what they will do next, so people are concerned and tense.

The PP have stood down the chief of the Mossos and supposedly taken control of that police force.

So, what will happen tomorrow? Will the catalan politicians be able to get to the parliament to make some new laws to protect the republic?

Will Puigdemont be able to go to work or will that orc Soraya be sitting in his chair?

What will the 16,000 strong Spanish police occupation force do?

Will the independentistas be able to participate in the imposed autonomous elections?

Monday, we will see.

 

[Pickman's model]

Polls are quite often wrong, see brexit and Trump for example.

Did you notice Trump lost the popular vote, chuck?

 

[Stanley Edwards]

Again, I think you are overstating this. There was opportunism from Puidgemont in calling the referendum and, as I've said, there probably isn't a natural indie majority. But it was Madrid that stopped it happening under anything like normal checks and balances. And whilst there might have been anomalies in terms of what was accepted as a valid vote, all that sort of stuff, it would be daft to suggest anything other than that Indie got a clear majority of the votes cast. Yes, on a less than 50% turnout, in a contested election... all that, but still a clear majority of votes cast.

No. You don't know that. Nobody does. There is absolutely no way the vote count, or the turnout can be verified. Absolutely no way.

At one point, people were even invited to attend polling stations they were not registered at to cast a vote. Who were these people? Were pro-independence supporters running from station to station voting as many times as they could? Votes went missing. Votes were prevented by force. The final count was never independently audited. There is absolutely no credibility in the 'results' given whatsoever. It was all a total fucking farce.

Meaningless as statistical evidence.

 

[Anudder Oik]

The margin of error would need to be massive in this case. 19% only feel Catalan. They can't be 31% out.

19% of what? what is the breakdown? Sounds like shite to me.

 

[Raheem]

The margin of error would need to be massive in this case. 19% only feel Catalan. They can't be 31% out.

tbf, it doesn't look like "only feeling Catalan" is a useful proxy for "support independence".

 

[Gramsci]

I'm glad she has said that. Obviously not a reader of El Pais. Would she be able to say what she thinks in a public place there, what's the atmosphere? Here, people's views are respected by the independetistas and people will try to engage in debate.

The rise in aggressive spanish nationalism these last few weeks has been bigger than anything I've seen and will have serious repercussions for all spaniards if it isn't somehow curbed.

Luckily, in Valencia, people have taken a stand and the turn out for the demo against fascist impunity was massive. There are a few on this thread who still don't understand the basic difference between aggressive socially fascist colonialist nationalism and the struggle to break with it.

She is living in UK now. Her area near Madrid is working class area. I'm not clear if her views would be common in her town.

She would agree that the struggle to break finally with Francoist type nationalism is far from over. She was complaining to me about the King a few weeks ago. He had made statement about Catalonia.

 

[Anudder Oik]

No. You don't know that. Nobody does. There is absolutely no way the vote count, or the turnout can be verified. Absolutely no way.

At one point, people were even invited to attend polling stations they were not registered at to cast a vote. Who were these people? Were pro-independence supporters running from station to station voting as many times as they could? Votes went missing. Votes were prevented by force. The final count was never independently audited. There is absolutely no credibility in the 'results' given whatsoever. It was all a total fucking farce.

Meaningless as statistical evidence.

All voters had to show their ID, this info was centralised via an internet link, so, in theory it is stored somewhere and could be consulted. People voting more than once would show up. The whole online software used was hacked by the government 17 times and brought down but later put up again.

I was present on the day, the turnout was massive, I saw people, old and young queing for up to 4 hours, the queues went right round the block, there were over 2000 polling stations, 700,000 votes stolen by the police.

 

[Stanley Edwards]

I still don't have a clue what political belief Carles Puigdemont is pushing other than his Catalan Nationalism.

All I know about him is that he was public school educated and landed a load of cushy jobs in journalism and politics after dropping out of college. My own suspicion is that he came from a wealthy, old skool business family in Girona. Exactly the sort of conservative fascists who would support a break from Madrid for their own good with no regard for the good of ordinary people.

 

[Anudder Oik]

tbf, it doesn't look like "only feeling Catalan" is a useful proxy for "support independence".

over 2 million voted, hundreds of thousands of votes confiscated, then there's the mass youth protests (hundreds of thousands) of under 18's who couldn't vote in the referendum, then subtract 1 million moroccans and the south american immigrants, then add in 22.5% abstention in any given election, then think about the Podemos position which could fall either way now, not officialy but individually. Make no mistake this movement is massive and much bigger than the unionists in Catalonia.

 

[Stanley Edwards]

...700,000 votes stolen by the police.

Curiosity only.

What is the reported total of votes counted?

Edit. -- I see you say 2 Million.

 

[Anudder Oik]

I still don't have a clue what political belief Carles Puigdemont is pushing other than his Catalan Nationalism.

All I know about him is that he was public school educated and landed a load of cushy jobs in journalism and politics after dropping out of college. My own suspicion is that he came from a wealthy, old skool business family in Girona. Exactly the sort of conservative fascists who would support a break from Madrid for their own good with no regard for the good of ordinary people.

It's not about him. There is a mass movement pushing things along. Don't make it about him. Have you read the thread?

 

[Anudder Oik]

Curiosity only.

What is the reported total of votes counted?

Edit. -- I see you say 2 Million.

Approx, 170,000 voted no.

 

[Anudder Oik]

I still don't have a clue what political belief Carles Puigdemont is pushing other than his Catalan Nationalism.

All I know about him is that he was public school educated and landed a load of cushy jobs in journalism and politics after dropping out of college. My own suspicion is that he came from a wealthy, old skool business family in Girona. Exactly the sort of conservative fascists who would support a break from Madrid for their own good with no regard for the good of ordinary people.

So, Puigdemont is a fascist?

 

[Stanley Edwards]

It's not about him. There is a mass movement pushing things along. Don't make it about him. Have you read the thread?

He seems to think it should be about him.

 

[Stanley Edwards]

So, Puigdemont is a fascist?

I haven't a clue. This is the point.

He hasn't given anyone any idea what his own political ideology is other than Catalan Nationalist.

 

[tim]

So, what will happen tomorrow? Will the catalan politicians be able to get to the parliament to make some new laws to protect the republic?

Will Puigdemont be able to go to work or will that orc Soraya be sitting in his chair?

What will the 16,000 strong Spanish police occupation force do?

Will the independentistas be able to participate in the imposed autonomous elections?

Monday, we will see.

 

[Anudder Oik]

Elisanda Perez:

Translation: I feel ashamed of having been a member for more than 12 years of a party
that today joined a protest alongside SSC, PxC, Vox, JONS, Alianza Nacional...


She was a member of the PSC (sort of blairite labour) who have joined
the PP to abolish the democratically elected goverment and institutions in Catalonia,
thus strengthening the extreme right in Spain and losing out politically themselves electorally
as has been the case every time they have sided with the PP on issues.

 

[Anudder Oik]

The little guy with glasses is Iceta PSC (Partit socialiste de Catalunya). The rest in the selfie are the dregs of the PP in Catalonia. Utter scum.
The words are his from a year ago. They read: Pedro (Sanchez, leader of PSOE the spanish mother party of PSC).
Pedro, stand firm, liberate us from Rajoy and the PP, please god, free us from them.

 

[Streathamite]

Polls are quite often wrong, see brexit and Trump for example.

As you are Our Correspondent In Catalonia, how do you think this one will pan out?

 

[Stanley Edwards]

OK. After a bit of research I now know that Puigdemont puts himself Centre-Right. He also sacked Five members of his cabinet within his right of centre party.

Interesting quote here...

“This is all a great farce,” said Inés Arrimadas, who leads the liberal opposition Ciudadanos in the Catalan parliament. “They don’t have the support of the labor unions, they don’t have legal coverage, they don’t have international backing, they don’t have a social majority who says this is going to be a referendum,” she added, arguing that the most convincing proof of their inability to organize the ballot is their failed attempt in 2014.

From here...

https://www.politico.eu/article/cat...eferendum-spain-the-carles-puigdemont-factor/

So, what are pro-independence voters actually voting for?

 

[Stanley Edwards]

This one reads well.

Catalonia's Carles Puigdemont: 'Puigdi's' deep political roots | Europe | DW | 13.10.2017

 

[Anudder Oik]

As you are Our Correspondent In Catalonia, how do you think this one will pan out?

I have just listened to an audio from a political commentator and read an editorial from a paper called Mon, between them they say that:

1. The republic has not really been declared as it hasn't been recorded in the official diary of the parliament. This will make legal prosecution for rebellion more complicated as the republic doesn't exist on paper.
2. That independentista parties should participate in the imposed december "Soraya" election because the combined unionist parties will only
poll 30%. If independetista parties are banned then a civil list will be made.

These analysis imply that there is some crafty strategy at play here with a pay off of internationally recognised self determination after a few months, when the 155 has been resisted at all levels and the elections in december show the real will of the people.

The problem I see, is that in the meantime The PP will arrest loads of politicians for rebellion (thus adding to their pool of political prisoners) and then outlaw independentista parties, while simultaneously carrying out a creeping assault on the institutions and even the education system.

Why would the PP, europe's most corrupt party, call elections whilst applying the 155, in the knowledge that the results will give a majority to the independentistas?

It is extremely suspiscious.

 

[Stanley Edwards]

Now it gets confusing again. It seems he is actually a right wing, left of centre, social democrat.

Glad we cleared that up then.

¿Quién es Carles Puigdemont y cómo llegó a ser el nuevo líder de Cataluña?

 

[Anudder Oik]

As you are Our Correspondent In Catalonia, how do you think this one will pan out?

Now it gets confusing again. It seems he is actually a right wing, left of centre, social democrat.

Glad we cleared that up then.

¿Quién es Carles Puigdemont y cómo llegó a ser el nuevo líder de Cataluña?

Arrimadas cannot be described as a centre Liberal, Ciutadans are nearly falangists.

 

[where to]

You do NOT know this. Many ballot boxes went missing. The figures given out as the result were not validated in anyway. We may as well have been told any figure. We don't even know how many people actually voted. We are told 40% turned out to vote. We are told many votes went missing. We are told 98% of counted papers were in favour of independence. It is totally meaningless. Given that all we have been told is coming from an organisation proven to be corrupt and highly unreliable, playing outside of the rules, lying... it reasonable to assume their stats are total bullshit. Even the exit polls are total rubbish.

People were given a Third option in the survey linked to, because that is probably exactly what will happen in a fair and regulated vote.

i have no problem with a 3 option survey, but don't say (whoever it was) only 29% support independence when we know 2 option polls give at least 40%+. It would be like a pro-indy person saying only 19% support staying with Spain (which was the result of the same poll afterall). I am sure you would not find that reasonable.

I agree the referendum was not transparent and did not meet proper standards (mainly due to Spanish police thuggery), but the result did broadly tally with the known data.

90%, not 98% btw.

 

[where to]

Well, yes, that explains the disparity between the figures, but I think you draw the wrong conclusions from that. I'd say the deeper reality is that the majority of Catalans don't favour outright independence. That might change, in fact I'm surprised the figures haven't changed after the state violence (they might have, can't speak Spanish so I can only see the figures in those poll links). However they don't seem to have changed. FWIW,, before others (not you) start accusing me of being a dupe of Madrid I think Catalonia has every right to have a proper agreed referendum and the repression surrounding the whole process is vile. But the issues of whether there really is support for indie doesn't go away, even as the repression mounts.

I don't disagree with any of that. but further devolution is not on the table. those who included it within that opinion poll, and chose not to poll the straight 2 option scenario (the choice that is actually being made) clearly did so for a reason.